This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have an eight-game slate that start at 7:30 pm ET.
John Tavares: Center, Islanders ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
The New York Islanders are tied with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 3.1 goals and, as expected, are the heaviest favorite on the slate with a moneyline at -170. John Tavares is the highest-rated center in the CSURAM88 Model, as he has been on fire lately, putting up at least eight DraftKings points in three of his last four games, including two hat-tricks and 10 total points. Despite his production of late, his salary has not risen on DraftKings, giving him a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. One of his wingers, Anders Lee, sticks with him on the top power play unit, which adds value to Tavares in a mini-line stack.
Max Pacioretty: Winger, Canadiens ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Max Pacioretty has always been a high-volume shooter, but he has been snake-bitten to start the season. He is averaging 4.36 shots per game, which is about one shot more per game than his career average. However, he is converting on just 6.3 percent of his shots compared to his career rate of 11.3 percent. Historically, players averaging a similar number of shots have a +0.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus, although Pacioretty has an abysmal -3.15 Plus/Minus this season, so there’s the possibility for progression.
Mitch Marner: Center, Maple Leafs ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
After spending two weeks on the fourth line, Mitch Marner returned to the top nine and top power play unit over the weekend. Marner is now skating on the third line (or the 2B line) with Tyler Bozak and Patrick Marleau at even strength. Marleau gets bumped to the top power play unit when the Maple Leafs are on the man advantage while Bozak and Marner play on the second unit. Tonight will be a battle between special teams, as the Sharks lead the league in penalty kill percentage despite averaging four penalties per game. On the other side of the battle, the Maple Leafs are sixth in the NHL with a 26.2 power play percentage. The Maple Leafs have an implied Vegas total of just 2.9 goals, but they lead the league with 4.09 goals per game.
Erik Karlsson: Defense, Senators ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Erik Karlsson is the No. 2 player in the CSURAM88 Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is a rare breed of defenseman who produces across the board with elite offense and solid peripheral stats with his blocks and shots on goal. Historically, defensemen with similar shots+blocks totals have a +2.14 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a 51.2 percent Consistency Rating. However, they’ve also had 22.3 percent ownership rates, so DFS players have historically known to roster these chalky plays. Karlsson has surpassed his salary-based expectations in four of his last five games and has a 57 percent Consistency Rating over the past 12 months, making him one of the safest players on the slate, although he could be popular.
Jake Muzzin: Defense, Kings ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Jake Muzzin hits on five Pro Trends and has a high floor with his offensive ability and peripheral shots and blocks. Muzzin has exceeded his salary-based expectations in nine of 11 games, giving him a solid production floor. Quarterbacking the second power play unit, he should have plenty of offensive opportunities as the St. Louis Blues have one of the worst penalty killing units in the NHL, ranking 27th with a 76.7 PK%.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
