This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a four-game slate that starts at 7:00 pm ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Steven Stamkos ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov remain the hottest goal-scoring duo in the NHL and are on pace to put up 140 points apiece over an 82-game season. The only thing that has stopped Stamkos before is injury (knock on wood), so for him to be one of the five best players in the league is nothing new. The last player to put up over 144 points was Mario Lemieux in 1995. The scariest part of all of this? Stamkos is shooting 15 percent, below his career average of 17 percent. Yes, that is right, Stamkos, a top-three DFS forward in (along with Kucherov and either Alex Ovechkin or Vladimir Tarasenko) is actually set for some form of progression. Unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay has the slate’s highest FantasyLabs team rating, and our Models love these two. Stamkos is a marginally better play due to the lack of center options on this slate, but he and Kucherov make for an explosive pairing in guaranteed prize pools.
John Carlson ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
John Carlson has gone up $100 in price from his last time out, when he played 28 minutes against a struggling defensive team and put up six DraftKings points. Carlson, who leads the league in time on ice per game, gets another fine matchup with the Oilers coming into town on a back-to-back, having lost to the Rangers on Saturday afternoon. It’s simple: Carlson for sub-$6,000 is too cheap. Dating back to 2015, Carlson has been cheaper than $6,000 on DraftKings 97 times. In those games, he has exceeded value nearly 50 percent of the time with an overall Plus/Minus of 0.58. As long as Matt Niskanen remains on Injured Reserve and the sites don’t adjust Carlson’s price accordingly, he will remain a top DFS defenseman.
Artem Anisimov ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Thanks to Joel Quenneville’s decision to adjust the lines again to get a spark out of his team, Artem Anisimov is now centering Patrick Kane and Nick Schmaltz at both even strength and on the power play. My favorite thing about the Blackhawks is that their beat writers simply label the Jonathan Toews line as the first line out of deference to Captain Serious, when it is Kane who really determines who plays the most. To wit, Kane and Anisimov led the Hawks in both even strength and power play ice time last night against the Hurricanes, and Anisimov in particular has an exploitable price tag, as he has yet to play a significant offensive role this season. Look to these two (and Cody Franson, who has found a home on this actual first power play unit with Kane) as an under-priced, low-owned stack against the Devils, who have given up the most goals this season of any team on this slate.
Brandon Montour ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
Oh, Brandon Montour, how do I love thee? Let me count the ways (stats courtesy of Prospect-Stats.com and EliteProspects.com).
- In the USHL, Montour scored 62 points in 60 games. No other defenseman in the league (Montour was a first-year player, as well) scored 44, and that full season was good for seventh all time on the USHL defensive leaderboard. In the playoffs, Montour led the league in scoring even though his team didn’t managed to win a championship.
- In the AHL, after a brief college stint, a 21-year-old Montour ranked second among all defensemen in points and points per game, firing a healthy 2.5 shots per game while he was at it (a clear indicator of offensive involvement).
- The next season (beginning of 2016-17), Montour then stepped up his game and led all players (defensemen and forwards) in shots per game (by a landslide) in 36 games, firing over four shots on net per game before being called up to the NHL.
There is quite a track record of success for Montour. Since being called up last February, Montour has averaged just about 3 shots+blocks per game, and with Cam Fowler out he has become the Ducks’ most utilized offensive defenseman. He is poised to play the point on the Ducks’ first power play unit, and he should get some nice matchups at even strength with Hampus Lindholm focusing solely on the lethal Stamkos line. Even without Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler, the Ducks have not had much of a problem generating offense. Sharp players will get exposure to both sides of the Lightning-Ducks game, with Montour pairing nicely with Rickard Rakell or Jakub Silfverberg.
Alex Ovechkin ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
There’s enough value on this slate to fit in a few studs, and with Carlson already a top play Ovechkin fits perfectly. Washington’s first line of Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Devante Smith-Pelly grades out as the top line on the slate, even higher than Tampa Bay’s first line, with a score of 92. With multi-goal upside in any game, Ovi could be the high-scorer on the slate, and it isn’t hard to fit in multiple high-upside players.
Bonus: Value plays to make your lineup work – Smith-Pelly, Jesse Puljujarvi, Alex Debrincat, Adrian Kempe, and Tanner Pearson
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
