This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a four-game slate that starts at 7:00 pm ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Brent Burns ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Brent Burns is back, using a couple nice home matchups to put up eight DraftKings points in back-to-back games against the Hurricanes and Senators. Going against Minnesota isn’t ideal, but for Burns still to be priced below $7,000 makes him an absolute priority over all other players on this slate. The shot volume is still there, the Sharks as a team have been playing much better, and Burns has the results to show it. Rated No. 1 in the CSURAM88 Model, last season’s Norris Trophy winner and DFS NHL MVP is a top play on this slate. It makes sense to go back to what worked with a power play stack of Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Tomas Hertl, or even Joe Thornton (who took four shots on goal against the Sens on Saturday), as they all have outstanding prices for their projections and historical profiles.
Mitch Marner ($5,000 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel)
Amazingly, even though this game between Edmonton and Toronto has a 6.5 over/under in Vegas, and even though these two teams have exceptional xG projections, there isn’t a singular must-play in this matchup, even on a short slate. Auston Matthews just got torched by Sidney Crosby and the Pens, getting outshot by Crosby 18-0. It was only the Tyler Bozak–Mitch Marner–James Van Riemsdyk line that showed up with any sort of regular pressure on the Penguins, and they scored three times with a 70 percent shot share. It is important to consider more than just one-game samples, and the third line’s lack of minutes on a regular basis makes them risky. but over the long-term Marner’s combination of sheer talent and shot floor (a 15 iCorsi/60 both this season and last) makes him intriguing, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Even on DraftKings, his salary is well within reason for someone averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game on the season while shooting a measly three percent (he shot 10 percent last year). That’s the difference between two goals and six goals at this juncture, so expect a reversal of fortune for Marner if his line continues to dominate play like they did on Saturday.
Milan Lucic ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
On the other end of this matchup, Milan Lucic is slotted alongside Connor McDavid on both the first line and first power play unit. While the Leafs opened as -190 favorites, quickly that line was pushed down into the -160 range, and most projection models (via Corsica.Hockey) have this game in the -135 range from a mathematical perspective. Perhaps the public is too high on Toronto here, and Edmonton can come in at lower ownership. Getting McDavid’s wingman in the mid-range leaves room to spend up for other players while giving lots of upside should this game turn into a shootout. Lucic stacks well with McDavid and Jesse Puljujarvi at even strength and with McDavid and Oscar Klefbom on the power play.
Jonathan Toews ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
There has been yet another slight reconfiguration of the Hawks’ first power play, as Cody Franson got hurt on Friday night and appears unlikely to go Sunday for the Blackhawks. Jonathan Toews appears poised to play on that first unit with Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook. While Anisimov has climbed nearly $2,000 on DraftKings, Toews remains the same price, and Chicago has been playing quite well as of late, their 5v5 xGF/60 ranking in the top five since the beginning of November. Against an Arizona team that has already played their way out of the playoff picture, Chicago could erupt here with some new special teams units making a Toews-Kane-Keith stack low-owned but lethal. Toews regularly leads the Hawks in ice time, has a decent shot floor, and will play in both areas of special teams. Only McDavid among centers on Sunday’s slate has been on the ice for more shot attempts on the opposition’s net per game, so there is ample upside with Toews against the Coyotes.
Paul Stastny ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
On Saturday afternoon Jaden Schwartz suffered an ankle injury that will keep him out for approximately six weeks. While there is no confirmation on how the Blues will adjust their lines to account for this, the first power play slot once filled by Schwartz was filled by Paul Stastny on Saturday afternoon. As the even-strength center to Vladimir Tarasenko for the last few games, Stastny is a perfectly competent mid-range center that makes for a great tournament play with Tarasenko as well. Be sure to check in on how the Blues run lines in pre-game warmups, but should things remain as they were, Stastny makes a lot of sense against Jack Eichel and a Sabres team that struggles to do much of anything (except lose) these days.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page. Alex Pietrangelo is OUT for St. Louis, and Auston Matthews is a game-time decision for Toronto.
