Eight of the first 13 players selected in the 2017 NBA draft were guards, and five of the first nine were freshman point guards with a chance to compete for significant playing time immediately. Guards are among the most consistent assets in daily fantasy sports (per our Trends tool), leading all positions in average DraftKings and FanDuel production over the past three seasons. They’re also among the highest-owned players, as seen in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Rookie guards have experienced a decline in average Plus/Minus and guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership in two straight seasons, but not all rookie classes are created equal. Second-round selection Malcolm Brogdon led the guards in average Plus/Minus last season, and Cameron Payne and Raul Neto offset decent rookie campaigns from D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay the year prior. The upcoming guard crop offers high upside and plenty of intrigue.
No. 1, Markelle Fultz – PG, 76ers
Sixers point guards have averaged top-four Plus/Minus values and top-two Consistency Ratings on DraftKings and FanDuel over the previous three seasons. Michael Carter-Williams sported a team-high 25.6 percent usage rate in 34.5 minutes per game and won the Rookie of the Year award in 2014 playing for the top-paced Sixers. T.J. McConnell was plenty productive as a backup most of his first season to Ish Smith. But despite their successes, none of Fultz’s predecessors possess his talent or scoring ability.
Fultz will inherit primary ball-handler duties alongside rookie Ben Simmons for one of the league’s fastest-paced offenses. The Washington Huskies averaged the 38th-fastest pace among 351 NCAA teams in Fultz’s freshman season, and Fultz averaged 23.2 points, 5.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game with a 31.4 percent usage rate. His defensive effort was mediocre, but Joel Embiid‘s presence — which resulted in a league-best 99.1 Defensive Efficiency last season — should give the rookie some cover.
Fultz’s arrival will impact playing time for McConnell, Sergio Rodriguez, and Jerryd Bayless, who was limited to three games in his first year in Philadelphia. Still, even if Fultz is handed the starting job immediately, he’ll have to compete for offensive touches with Embiid, whose 36.3 percent usage rate ranked third last season. Additionally, coach Brett Brown has touted Simmons as the team’s “point guard.”
While general manager Bryan Colangelo believes both front court players are on track to play this season without minute restrictions, Brown believes it’s ambitious that Embiid or Simmons will be uninhibited and allowed to play on consecutive days. Fultz will likely be the primary beneficiary if either misses significant time, and based on how Sixers point guards have previously performed he’ll be in a prime position to flourish.
No. 2, Lonzo Ball – PG, Lakers
Ball is a 19-year-old rookie expected to assume a prominent role for the Lakers now that D’Angelo Russell has been traded, and he’ll be flanked by a competent center in Brook Lopez, who fared well on the league’s top team in pace last season. Ball possesses elite court vision, and he led the nation with 7.6 assists per game in his lone season at UCLA. Ball has also displayed an ability to spot up and play off the ball in college, but he may struggle as the primary offensive creator this year with limited three-point shooters on the Lakers.
Coach Luke Walton may be the largest impediment during Ball’s upcoming rookie season. Walton didn’t move last year’s No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram ahead of Luol Deng in the starting lineup full-time until early February, and no Laker guard averaged more than 28 minutes per game prior to the All-Star break last season. In fact, Russell and fellow neophyte Julius Randle were occasionally benched in the second halves of games.
The Lakers guard depth is currently thin enough that Ball is almost a shoo-in to start on opening night. The top-five players in assist rate last season are no longer with the Lakers — assuming Tyler Ennis receives a lucrative contract elsewhere as an unrestricted free agent. Nick Young opted out of his contract, leaving Jordan Clarkson, David Nwaba, and late-first round pick Josh Hart as the only present backcourt competitors with Ball for playing time.
No. 5, De’Aaron Fox – PG, Kings
Selected fifth overall, Fox is known for his incredible quickness, ability to create out of the pick-and-roll, and inconsistent shooting. As the season culminated in conference and NCAA tournament play, Fox converted 53.4 percent of his field goal attempts over the final nine games, including 47.1 percent from downtown. The sample size is concerning, but his proclivity for exploiting driving lanes could be augmented by Buddy Hield‘s range.
Fox is in position to become the primary point guard for the Kings. Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, and Tyreke Evans are all unrestricted free agents this offseason, and Langston Galloway opted out of his contract. The first two led the Kings in total assists last season, and Evans had the highest usage rate on the Kings following the DeMarcus Cousins trade. Now that Rudy Gay has declined his player option and Arron Afflalo has been released, the Kings will likely resemble the younger group that was on display after the All-Star break last season, giving Fox an immense opportunity to accrue valuable on-court minutes.
No. 9, Dennis Smith Jr. – PG, Mavericks
Smith was selected ninth overall by the Mavericks out of North Carolina State. He’s freakishly athletic with dynamic scoring ability, and he’s even considered by some as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate.
A quick aside on next year’s upcoming ROY race: ESPN writer Kevin Pelton found in a study from 2014 that 25 of the prior 26 ROY winners had something in common: They were first among rookies in combined points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game. Since then, Michael Carter-Williams, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns have won the award, making it 28 of 29. That said, the trend was bucked just last night, as Malcolm Brogdon won the ROY despite both Joel Embiid and fellow 76ers teammate Dario Saric having better counting stats. Early odds for next season’s ROY race are currently:
- Lonzo Ball: +250
- Ben Simmons: +300
- Markelle Fultz: +550
- De’Aaron Fox: +700
- Dennis Smith: +700
- Malik Monk: +900
- Josh Jackson: +1200
- Jayson Tatum: +1600
- Jonathan Isaac: +2500
- Justin Jackson: +3300
- Lauri Markkanen: +3300
- John Collins: +5000
It’s likely the five guys with the highest odds will all start in their rookie seasons. Since fantasy is largely about counting stats, these odds could be an indicator of who’s likely to enjoy the most rookie production. Then again, perhaps the odds are too low for Smith.
Mavs coach Rick Carlisle employs a structured offense that revolves around the floor spacing of Dirk Nowitzki. Undrafted rookie Yogi Ferrell showed flashes under Carlisle last season, averaging 10.6 points and 4.6 assists in 30.6 minutes in 29 starts. Imagine what Smith could do after leading the ACC in assists as a freshman and averaging 18.1 points less than two years removed from a torn ACL.
The question is how much opportunity Smith will have. He’ll need to battle with Ferrell, J.J. Barea, Seth Curry, and potentially Devin Harris for playing time, and Smith’s youth and defensive-ineptness could limit him. Carlisle hasn’t coached many lottery-selected rookies, and in Carlisle’s nine years in Dallas, Ferrell, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Jae Crowder have been the only rookies to play more than 1,000 minutes. Ferrell led them all in total points and assists in just 36 games.
Still, Carlisle had this to say about Smith:
I would project him as a starter, but he’s going to have to earn it, and he understands that.
If Smith is the team’s best point guard, he’ll probably get the minutes to make an impact.
No. 11, Malik Monk – SG, Hornets
Monk enters the league as a gifted shooter, having converted 37.9 percent of his three-pointers as a freshman at Kentucky. He’s a smidge undersized for a shooting guard, and he doesn’t provide much resistance on the defensive end. Nonetheless, he may be called upon to orchestrate the offense situationally.
Monk was electrifying on the fast break last season, but that might not matter much in Charlotte, as the Hornets have ranked in the bottom-seven in fast break points per possession since Steve Clifford took over the Bobcats in 2013. Monk still has the polish to generate points in the half court, but he’s a one-dimensional guard at this juncture and reducing his scoring opportunities limits his upside as a rookie.
Monk joins a team that had one of the worst and seldom used benches last season. The Hornets largely relied on Frank Kaminsky, Marco Belinelli, and Jeremy Lamb offensively. Ramon Sessions, Brian Roberts, and Briante Weber were in the running for the worst backup point guard trios in the league. Sessions is expected to be waived or traded before the end of the month, and Belinelli was traded to Atlanta — opening up minutes and usage for Monk off the bench.
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