Below a Certain Point, They’re Almost Comparable
Generational talents like Connor McDavid (complete freak) and superstar players like Brett Burns (also a freak) are in an elite tier of their own. However, the difference between average NHL players, minor league players, and even elite college players may be far less significant than the average fan or DFS player realizes.
For that reason I urge you not to rely on lazy analysis:
“C’mon, has three points all season. Who cares if he got bumped up from the 4th line and will see a bit of power play time tonight?”
“Who cares that got called up? He’s been in the AHL for a reason!”
Such thoughts can get you in trouble or at least blind you from seeing potential value.
Exhibit A: Kalle Kossila (a former teammate of mine), who did this last week in the AHL:
I’m biased, but I can’t wait to roster him at minimum price when (not if) he gets called up for the Ducks.
The point is that opportunity is king. As DFS pricing often lags behind opportunity, it makes sense that players in recently expanded roles would have a ton of value. But how do we identify these players and find an edge?
Let’s start with forwards (centers and wingers combined).
12 Forwards, But Who Actually Sees the Ice?
The line a player is on determines how much Time On Ice (TOI) he’s likely to receive. More TOI is likely to lead to more shots and eventually more goals.
The following chart filters TOI by line using our Trends tool. The heat map show the percentages of the lines that fall under each TOI quintile. In this case, the 100th percentile represents the highest average TOI relative to other players.
Offensive defensemen and some other types of players who see less TOI are still viable, but typically we should seek out players in the highest quintile for TOI over the past month (TOI-Month).
As we can see, far more top-six (line 1-2) forwards are in the upper quintiles than the bottom. On average, bottom-six forwards see the ice far less often.
We see the same general trends when we look only at forwards who see time on the power play (PP), which top-six forwards more frequently do:
More often than not, top-six forwards on the PP can expect to find themselves in the top quintile for TOI-month. In contrast, fourth-line forwards on the PP player most frequently find themselves in the second-to-last quintile. (Als0, the sample of PP fourth-line forwards is small: 1,134 to 9,771 for first-line forwards.)
For the remainder of this study, only PP forwards will be included in the samples.
Punt Plays with High TOI
Now that we see how role and TOI are correlated, we can dive into what an expanded role means in terms of DFS.
Our TOI filter is based on the fantasy year (rolling 365 days). We can leverage this long-term information by also screening for short-term increases in TOI-Month. Let’s look for players who are no higher than $4,000 DK and who are in the top quintile in short-term TOI but lower than that in long-term TOI:
Unsurprisingly, when cheap players see a bump in TOI up to the top quintile of TOI-Month, they on average provide a lot of value (per Plus/Minus).
Why do the mid-range long-term TOI players provide value when elevated to the top quintile but the bottom-of-the-barrel TOI players don’t? Maybe it’s because the guys who already receive a moderate amount of TOI are good enough to capitalize on their opportunities, but the low TOI guys aren’t.
Other Expanded Roles
Do we find short-term value with other combinations of salary and long-term TOI?
There are some small counts here, but we can find a pocket of players $4,100 to $6,000 who provide value when receiving a bump in TOI. The core of this value is found in the quintile of players in the top 61 to 80 percent of TOI.
Optimal Punt Range With Forwards in Expanded Roles
Let’s circle back to punt plays and screen for players who are in the 90th percentile in TOI-Month but the 61st to 80th percentiles in long-term TOI:
The count is small — since guys already receive respectable TOI are rarely cheap anyway, much less after they’ve received a short-term bump in action — but this trend provides a massive edge in salary-based production and Consistency.
Conclusion
Top-six forwards on the power play typically see the most TOI in the short term. Very few third- and fourth-line forwards see top-tier TOI even if they are on the power play.
Targeting forwards with recently expanded roles can provide a ton of value, especially when they’re still cheap.
