NFL Trend of the Week
Ask any DFS player which position is hardest to analyze each week, and you’re likely to hear “tight end” in most cases. Unlike the other skill positions, tight ends generally lack consistent, featured roles each week, which leads to highly-volatile results. Instead of building a lineup around a top-tier tight end, many DFS players prefer to go the ‘punt play’ route, selecting a cheap tight end and praying for a touchdown. But what if choosing the right tight end each week didn’t need to be so difficult?
Through 13 weeks of the NFL season, we’ve now collected a sizable amount of data on each player and their team. That data may not make every decision easy or 100 percent accurate, but it certainly can be utilized to circumvent the unpredictable nature of the position.
With that in mind, let’s use our Trends tool to search for winning numbers in this week’s tight end lottery.
Fantasy Year > Season Consistency > 70 to 100
The Season Consistency filter helps us focus on players who perform close to their expected points each week. In this case, we’re looking for tight ends who do this in at least 70 percent of their games. This gives us a baseline DraftKings Plus/Minus of +1.72.
Fantasy Year > Season Upside > 50 to 100
Here, we’re adding in Season Upside to look for players that exceed their salary-based expected output in at least half of their games. This results in a strong Plus/Minus of +2.51.
Current Matches
Hunter Henry has exceeded expectations in his rookie season, but he remains a bargain player in DFS. He’s averaging over 14 yards per reception and over eight yards per target — both are Pro Trends. In Week 14, Henry faces the Panthers, who are among the league’s worst teams in defending tight ends.
Eric Ebron has a favorable matchup this week, playing the division-rival Bears at home. He also leads this list with eight current Pro Trends.
Since the beginning of November, Zach Ertz has averaged over six catches for 60 yards per game. He’s coming off a 15-target performance against the Bengals and faces the TE-friendly Redskins in Week 14. Unfortunately, his salary has risen considerably in that time, too.
Since Colin Kaepernick took over the starting QB job, Vance McDonald has averaged over five targets per game. With that said, his Week 14 Bargain Rating is only 18 percent, and he faces a stiff matchup against the Jets, who perform well against tight ends.
Good luck this week!
