The top 70 players in this year’s FedExCup standings are ready to tee it up this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in the first of three playoff events to crown the FedExCup Champion. The St. Jude Championship has been held at TPC Southward to start the playoffs for each of the last two years, and each year, it needed extra holes to decide the winner.
Last year, Lucas Glover beat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for a second straight week and propelled himself all the way through the Playoffs finale at the TOUR Championship. Glover missed the playoffs this year, but the field is still totally stacked with the biggest names in golf, along with golfers on the rise. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy headline the field that will include all 70 golfers who are eligible.
While the PGA TOUR continues to tweak the playoff format, this event should feel relatively familiar. Like this year’s Signature Event structure, this event will have no cut, meaning all players will play four rounds, barring injury or withdrawal. At the end of the week, the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. Those top 50 players will also land exemptions into all 2025 Signature Events. Even players further down the standings will be worth keeping a close eye on since who advances is always a key storyline.
While the tournament’s name and exact position in the calendar have shifted around a bit, TPC Southwind has been a regular stop on the PGA TOUR. From 1989-2018, it hosted the FedEx St. Jude Classic and then the WGC-FedEx Invitational from 2019-2021. In 2022, it moved to its current spot as host of this event, which begins the playoffs. The course is a Par-70 that features pure Bermuda greens and typically rewards players who are accurate off the tee and can put themselves in good positions rather than just “bomb and gouge.”
The setup is similar to many Florida courses in many ways. Not only are the greens Bermuda, but the landing areas and approaches are also heavily guarded by plenty of water in Florida fashion. Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, current form, and course history will be the key elements I’m using for this week’s picks.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Collin Morikawa $10,000
With only 70 players in the limited field, ownership is going to be more concentrated than usual, as will continue to be the case for the rest of the playoffs. While it’s very hard to argue against Scheffler and his dominant recent results, there is some leverage available in pivoting off the big name or pairing him up with another high-priced option. Of the five players with salaries of at least $10,000, Morikawa has the second-lowest ownership projection and the highest SimLeverage.
Morikawa has the fourth-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the field and the fourth-highest odds of winning or finishing in the top 10, according to Vegas. He also has the third-highest Perfect% in the field and matches the second-most Pro Trends.
Even though he hasn’t won since last fall, Morikawa has been sniffing around another victory. He finished third at The Masters and has reeled off 10 straight top 20s in PGA TOUR events since then, including five top 5s. He finished in the top 25 at the Olympics before taking last week off, but he should be in a great spot to contend again this week, given his excellent course history. At TPC Southwind, Morikawa has finished in the top 26 in each of his four career appearances, highlighted by a top 5 in 2022 before finishing T13 last year.
Over the last 30 rounds, Morikawa ranks in the top five in the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach. His game is a great fit for a total test like TPC Southwind, and he’s one of the top players who can win on any given week. Since he has a lower ownership projection, he’s a strong GPP option this week.
Tommy Fleetwood $9,800
After missing the cut at The Open Championship, Fleetwood came up just one shot short of a gold medal after Scheffler’s charge. He’s still looking for his elusive first career PGA TOUR win, but he’s seemed close to breaking through on many occasions. This could be the week based on that excellent recent form and his good course history on this track.
Before missing the cut at Royal Troon, Fleetwood had cashed in 11 straight tournaments, including top 10s in elite fields at the Genesis Invitational and the Masters. He also finished in the top 26 at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Overall, he ranks 10th in Total Strokes Gained over the last 50 rounds while also ranking in the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
Fleetwood had one of his many near misses last year at this event, finishing just one stroke out of the playoff. He had another top-five on this track back in 2019.
Of the players over $9,000, Fleetwood has the third-highest SimLeverage since his ownership projection is under 12%. He also has the second-highest ceiling of the options under $10,000 and the fourth-highest Leverage in the field. Some day he’s going to win on the PGA TOUR, and even if it’s not this week, his high finishes make him a good GPP play.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tony Finau $8,800
Finau is another strong, balanced player who can contend whenever he’s at his best. Getting him under $9,000 and with an ownership projection under 9% is a great GPP option. He has the second-highest SimLeverage between $7,000 and $9,000 behind only Justin Thomas, discussed below.
No stranger to playoff success, Finau has mixed results at TPC Southwind. Last year, he disappointed with a T64 but did finish T5 with Morikawa in 2022. Aside from a very bad day in inclement weather at The Open Championship, Finau has been in good form coming into this event. He missed the cut at The Open but has made the cut in every other event he has played since March. He finished runner-up at the Texas Children’s Houston Open to start that run and has run off seven top 20s since then, including a T12 at the 3M Open three weeks ago.
Over his last 36 rounds, Finau ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach behind only Scheffler and Schauffele, and he ranks second behind only Scottie over the last 24 rounds. He also ranks in the top five over his last 24 rounds in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and has gained strokes with his flat stick in five straight events. If he can continue that putting and ball-striking form, he should be poised for another strong finish in Memphis.
Justin Thomas $8,400
Thomas is back in the playoffs this season after missing out last year, and the 15-time PGA TOUR Champion has had a strong bounce-back season, even though he is still looking for his first win since May of 2022. He has the second-highest SimLeverage of all players under $10,000 and third-highest in the entire field. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% and the second-highest Leverage of the players under $9,000.
JT returns to the playoffs in solid form, making the cut in seven of his last eight tournaments with top 10s in strong fields at The Travelers Championship, the PGA Championship, and the RBC Heritage. He ranks in the top 20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 50 rounds and has been especially good around the green.
Thomas is a great fit for this course and has proven that with a win in 2020 when the tournament was a WGC event. He finished in the top 15 in his most recent visit two years ago and has never finished worse than 26th in four career appearances. Thomas has shown the ability to go low and contend this season but hasn’t been able to put together a full week of strong rounds. He is a very strong contrarian play with an ownership percentage under 7%, and he has the potential to contend, given his strong course history.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Davis Thompson $7,400
Normally in my GPP picks I go against the grain and pick non-popular options, but I’m willing to eat some chalk to include Thompson this week. He has the highest ownership projection of all players under $8,000, but I think the general public has it right this time–Thompson is clearly a rising star and comes too cheap under $7,500. He has the highest Perfect% of all players under $8,000 and the second-highest ceiling behind only Adam Scott ($7,700) (who is also a strong play).
Thompson has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 events, dating back to a runner-up finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic in May. The 25-year-old broke through for his first PGA TOUR win at the John Deere Classic and finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic the week before, showing he can thrive on parkland setups like this one. He added another top 15 at the Wyndham Championship last week and now has 12 top 25s in his 23 events this season.
The strength of Thompson’s game is definitely still his driver, and he ranks in the top five in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over his last 24 rounds. However, his short game has also been impressive over that span, and he leads the entire field in Strokes Gained: Short Game over that stretch.
Thompson starts the playoffs in the top 30 with a good chance to play all the way to the finale if he stays in form. I’ve been on the hype train all season, and even though the bandwagon is getting a little crowded this week, I expect Davis to deliver and will differentiate in other spots to include him in my picks.
Cameron Davis $6,800
For cash games, I like Si Woo Kim and Christiaan Bezuidenhout in the low $7,000s, but as a whole, the players in that salary range come with very heavy ownership. Instead, I’m going to go cheaper with my second value and target Davis, whose ownership projection is under 5%.
Davis missed the cut last week at the Wyndham but had been on a nice roll before that, winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic and finishing in the top 26 at the Scottish Open and 3M Open. Even in that missed cut, he looked strong in Round 1 with a 69 before slipping up with a 73 in Round 2. Hopefully, the extra rest ends up working in his favor as he returns to action this week.
In the last two years, Davis has proven he can succeed at Southwind, finishing T13 in 2022 and T6 in 2023. He had a great playoff run last year, climbing the standings each week to advance to the next tournament and making it to the BMW Championship. This season, he starts this week at No. 44 and will look to make it all the way to the finale.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Eric Cole $6,700
After winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2023, Cole had a slow start to 2024. The 36-year-old found his way, though, and has put together several strong showings recently to climb to No. 54 in the FedExCup standings with a chance to move on in the playoffs with a good week this week.
He has made six straight cuts with top 10s at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the John Deere Classic, and last week’s Wyndham Championship. He ranks in the top 10 in this elite field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 20 rounds and 19th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Despite his strong recent form, Cole is being fairly overlooked, with an ownership projection under 3%. Since he has the fifth-highest Perfect% of the golfers under $7,000, he has the highest Leverage and second-highest SimLeverage in that salary range.
Last year, Cole finished T31 at his TPC Southwind debut, but given his recent form, he has a chance to improve that and offer great fantasy value at this salary.
Chris Kirk $6,200
After three missed cuts earlier this summer, Kirk bounced back and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four events. He still comes in near the bottom of the salary structure, even though he did finish in the top 20 at this event last season.
Kirk has the fourth-highest Perfect% and the fourth-highest SimLeverage of the 30 players under $7,000. He has the third-highest ceiling and median projection of all golfers under $6,500 and is a great way to save salary while still getting experience and past success on this track. In 2018, Kirk finished T6 at TPC Southwind at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, but he did miss the cut in his other three career trips to this venue.
He seems to be rounding back into form after that tough stretch, and he’ll be a good play if he continues his upswing this week. His early-season victory at the Sentry was a long time ago, but he’s still No. 28 in the FedExCup standings and will look to put together a good couple of weeks to get to East Lake for the TOUR Championship.
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