After a fantastic finish to the regular season, the PGA TOUR is ready to tee up the postseason at this week’s newly formatted FedExCup Playoffs. The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings qualify for this week’s event, down from 125 in the past few seasons. Players outside the top 70 will sit out the playoffs and return to action in the FedExCup Fall as they try to secure their PGA TOUR cards for next year.
The top 70 golfers will play a limited-field, no-cut event this week. The format will be very similar to what we see next year at the eight “signature events,” which is what the PGA TOUR announced will be the new term for the designated events from this past season. From a fantasy perspective, this week’s tournament will be a good warm-up for those events. The next two tournaments will reduce in field size as the top 50 advance to next week’s BMW Championship and the top 30 to the TOUR Championship at East Lake for the playoff finale.
All the big names are planning to tee it up at the St. Jude Championship, including Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, and Wyndham Clark, who are the top five in the FedExCup standings coming into the week. At the other end of the standings, Lucas Glover was the only player to jump up into the top 70 last week, and he needed to claim the win at the Wyndham to make that leap. With points quadrupled in the next two tournaments, there will be more fluidity as players try to move up to advancing positions.
Coming into the week, Glover is at No. 49, just inside the cut to advance to next week, with Nick Hardy just behind him. Entering this week just outside the top 50, Alex Smalley, Thomas Detry, Taylor Montgomery, Davis Riely, and Brandon Wu will need strong weeks to move up and move on.
Barring injury or withdrawal, all the golfers in the field will get four rounds this week at TPC Southwind. The course made its debut hosting this event in the playoffs just last year, but prior to that, it had hosted the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. As a result, many of the PGA TOUR’s top players know the course well, and we have some good data on what to expect from this challenging course. To see what skills lead to success on this track, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
Especially with no cut, this is a week to take some risks in GPP lineups and look for players with low ownership. For GPP, a “stars and scrubs” construction is usually preferred, but that is even more the case in no-cut events like this one.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1.2M Summer Sand Trap, which awards $250K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jon Rahm $11,100
The “Big Three” are each projected to have ownership over 20%, which are the three highest in the field. Of the three, Rahm has the lowest ownership projection and the lowest salary, making him a very attractive option if you decide to build around one of the superstars this week.
Rahm checks in at No. 1 in the field with a 26.5% Perfect% this week, and he also leads the field with 6.2% SimLeverage.
He leads the FedExCup standings coming into the week after a phenomenal regular season. He piled up four victories early on in the season and won the Masters in the first major of the year. He finished runner-up at the last major of 2023, finishing a distant second behind Brian Harman. His T2 at Hoylake was actually a nice return to form for Rahm, who missed the cut at the Travelers Championship but also finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open.
Rahm has a sparkling playoff record, finishing runner-up to McIlroy last season. He started that run with a T5 at this event last year and also posted a top 10 in his first appearance at TPC Southwind back in 2019.
Statistically, Rahm is at or near the top of virtually every category that matters and is No. 1 in the all-around ranking. With his return to form at The Open Championship, there’s no doubt he has a good chance to win this week if he is at his best.
It would be easy to make a case for Rahm as the strongest play in the field regardless of salary or ownership, but the fact that he’s expected to be lower owned and at a lower salary than Scottie and Rory makes him an exceptional option to build around in GPPs this week.
Collin Morikawa $9,000
Morikawa has been extremely boom-or-bust in his past several tournaments, but he brings the kind of sky-high ceiling that makes him worth the risk in GPP lineups. Our sims are very high on Morikawa, giving him the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field, actually just ahead of Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. As a result of that strong showing and lower ownership projection, he has the seventh-highest SimLeverage in the field.
Although he missed the cut at The Open Championship and the Travelers Championship, he finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his one tournament in between. He has missed multiple cuts but also posted very strong finishes in elite fields this season with top 15s at The Genesis Invitational, THE PLAYERS Championship, the Masters and the U.S. Open.
He has an excellent course history at TPC Southwind, which usually plays to his strength with the irons while minimizing the impact of his inconsistent putting. He finished T5 last year at this tournament with a very strong showing on the greens, and he has finished in the top 30 in each of his three career appearances at this venue.
His inconsistency from week to week and the fact that he hasn’t won since the 2021 Open Championship keeps his ownership projection under 15%, placing him just outside the top 10 in projected ownership. He has the seventh-best odds to win the tournament and the seventh-best odds to finish in the top 10, according to Vegas.
Morikawa has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the players with salaries of at least $9K, and he is very affordable given his win equity and upside. He’s exactly the kind of “swing for the fences” pick that I like for GPP lineups, especially in limited fields, since he brings so much upside.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Wyndham Clark $8,500
There are 10 players priced in the $8,000s this week, but none has a higher ceiling, median or floor projection than Wyndham Clark, who has been one of the biggest breakthrough stars this season on the PGA TOUR. Clark got his first PGA TOUR win at the Wells Fargo Championship and followed that by claiming his first career major championship by holding off Rory to win the U.S. Open. He hasn’t been struggling at all since then, making the cut at the Travelers Championship, the Scottish Open, and The Open Championship.
With a 14.7% projected ownership, he’s a little chalkier than I was hoping he would be, but his upside makes him worth it. There are multiple players in this price bracket with even higher ownership projections that don’t come with as high a ceiling. Just make sure that your Clark lineups have differentiators in other roster spots to make them stand out.
Clark’s stats have been elite all season and line up well for this course. He finished in the top 30 in his debut at this event last year. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 15 of his 17 tournaments in 2023, and he should be set up to play well again this week.
After such an impressive season, Clark comes into this week in an excellent position for a deep playoff run, and I think he’ll establish himself as one of the favorites to claim the FedExCup Championship with a strong showing in Memphis.
Tony Finau $8,700
Finau is a strong contrarian play to consider this week after showing signs of a return to form. He has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field and the highest of any player under $9K.
Finau has been quiet for a long stretch since winning the Mexico Open at the end of April. He shook off his slump at the 3M Open, where he started the week with 66-66-67 before a 70 in the final round caused a fade to a T7. His big areas of improvement were in his short game and putting, where he’ll need to be sharp again at TPC Southwind.
Finau is a proven playoff performer and can contend in elite fields. He has made the cut in his last four tournaments at this course, including a T5 last year. Finau can catch fire and go low in any one round or in any one tournament, and getting him at projected ownership under 12% makes him a great spot to grab some leverage in the midrange.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Cameron Davis $7,200
Since this is a smaller field there aren’t quite as many options as usual under $8K. Some of the plays I have been relying on in these picks are set up for high ownership, like Tom Kim, Russell Henley, and J.T. Poston. I do still like those three plays if you can afford to chalk, but if you are looking for a more contrarian option, check out Cameron Davis, who comes into this week on a nice roll but still checks in with only 9% projected ownership.
Davis scuffled early in the year while battling an illness but found his game as the weather got hotter. He made the cut and finished in the top 35 in four of his five most recent tournaments, including top-10 finishes in the last two weeks at the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship. He had a Plus/Minus of over +20 DraftKings points in each of those four weeks, dramatically outperforming salary-based expectations.
He shot 70 or better in all eight rounds the past two weeks and gained strokes in every category. His short game was especially sharp last week at the Wyndham, where he ranked fourth in SG: Around The Green and eighth in scrambling.
He’s trending in the right direction and had a strong showing at TPC Southwind with T13 last year. He’ll be looking for a similar performance this week since he is currently 62nd in the FedExCup standings and needs to move into the top 50 to advance to next week’s BMW Championship.
Emiliano Grillo $7,100
Grillo has the ball-striking prowess to contend any week and has been posting strong results in elite fields this season. He got his second PGA TOUR career win at the end of May at the Charles Schwab Challenge and continued to impress with top-15 finishes at the Travelers, The Open Championship, and the 3M Open in three of his four most recent tournaments. Before his victory, Grillo also posted top 10s at The Heritage and the Mexico Open. All those FedExCup points have him in the top 25 coming into the week, but he’ll need to do well the next two weeks to secure his spot in the finale.
Grillo’s game sets up well for Southwind since he is 19th in the field in iron play over the last 36 rounds and is also in the top 20 in putting and scoring. Last year, Grillo finished T31 in his first career appearance at this course, and he’ll look to build on that success this season.
This week, Grillo is projected for under 10% ownership, which should make him and Davis good leverage options in the low $7K range.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Vincent Norrman $6,700
Norrman has the second-highest SimLeverage in the entire field, behind only Jon Rahm. His projected ownership of just 2.5% is shockingly low, given how well the rookie has been performing the past few weeks.
The 25-year-old from Stockholm broke through for his first PGA TOUR victory at the Barbasol Championship just under a month ago and has made the cut in five straight events. In each of those events, he has outproduced salary-based expectations, and over that span, he has averaged a Plus/Minus of +27.6 DraftKings points.
He’ll be making his playoff debut and barely made it in at No. 68 in the standings. He’ll need a big week to advance, but he has shown the potential to produce a strong finish. He ranks 14th in driving distance this season, so he brings plenty of length, and he ranked in the top 10 of both SG: Approach and SG: Off The Tee in the Twin Cities two weeks ago. His putter held him back a little, but if he can flip that this week, he could be ready to surprise some people and also be a great sleeper play from under $7K.
Norrman matches five Pro Trends coming into the week, tied for the most of any player priced under $7K
Andrew Putnam $6,400
Putnam’s course history and trending current form make him a great bargain play this week, even if he is getting quite a bit of attention. He definitely isn’t as off the radar as Norrman, but Putnam still could be a great GPP option despite the relative chalk of his ownership projection.
In his career, Putnam has played four events at TPC Southwind. He missed the cut in his debut back in 2015 but finished in the top 25 in each of his three most recent tournaments at this track, including a runner-up finish in 2018 and a T5 last year when it made its playoff debut. He ranks among the horses for the course with players that are near the top of the salary structure, so getting him under $6,500 is a steal.
It’s not like Putnam comes into the playoffs without some nice momentum as well. He has outperformed salary-based expectations in seven straight events, highlighted by a top five at the Memorial. The 34-year-old will be making his fifth playoff appearance in the last six seasons after making an impressive 21-of-27 cuts with three top-10 finishes this season.
Getting him as such a bargain should allow you to build in plenty of stars while still getting good upside from a play barely more than the minimum. If you just can’t get past his projected ownership, Adam Schenk and Samuel Stevens are other rock-bottom bargain plays that could pop this week from lower ownership. However, I’d prefer playing Putnam unless you’re desperate for differentiation.
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