With the PGA TOUR regular season in the books, it’s time to begin the 2022 FedEx Cup playoffs.
Previously known as the St. Jude Classic and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the event will now serve as the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and is named the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
While the name and the spot on the PGA TOUR schedule have changed, the course remains the same. TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tennessee and has been a regular TOUR stop since 1989.
TPC Southwind is a Par 70 measuring 7,244 yards. The course features Bermudagrass greens and rough. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards, there is potential trouble on almost every hole.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship will play host to the top 121 players in the FedEx Cup standings, with the top 65 and ties making it through to the weekend.
For contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is excellent for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
TPC Southwind is a relatively short course, and it isn’t necessary to be a long hitter off the tee to compete. In 2020, we saw Justin Thomas win here by gaining 7.7 strokes on approach compared to just 2.3 off the tee. In 2021, Abraham Ancer gained 4.4 strokes on approach and just 1.4 off the tee. Golfers with all types of skill sets can win at the course, but there is no doubt that Strokes Gained: Approach is the most predictive statistic this week.
- High-end target: Xander Schauffele— $9,800 (3rd Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Russell Henley— $7,800 (1st Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: Brendan Steele— $7,000 (5th Strokes Gained: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does factor in approach, but it also includes golfers who keep the ball in play in addition to solid approach play. While distance off the tee isn’t the most important factor this week, golfers will get into serious trouble if they spray the ball off the tee.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy $11,000 (2nd Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
- Mid-range target: Will Zalatoris— $9,500 (7th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
- Value target: Brendan Steele— $7,000 (3rd Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Greens in Regulation: Gained
Green in Regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is 59.8%, while the TOUR average is 65.8%. Golfers who are in control of the golf ball have had a lot of success at the course historically. The scoring should be relatively difficult this week, so fairways and greens will be the recipe to success.
- High-end target: Xander Schauffele— $10,300 (4th in Greens in Regulation: Gained)
- Mid-range target: Corey Conners— $7,600 (6th in Greens in Regulation: Gained)
- Value target: Brendan Steele— $7,000 (1st in Greens in Regulation: Gained)
Par 4: 450-500
The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. There are six holes of this length at TPC Southwind, which is at least double the amount of any other distance range.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,000 (4th Par 4: 450-500)
- Mid-range target: Cameron Young— $9,300 (12th Par 4: 450-500)
- Value target: Emiliano Grillo— $7,000 (2nd Par 4: 450-500)
Bogey Avoidance
TPC Southwind features six holes with bogey percentages above 17.5%. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are all very difficult and will give the field some trouble. With par being a good score on these particular holes, it will be essential to target golfers who tend to avoid blemishes on the scorecard.
- High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,000 (1st Bogey Avoidance)
- Mid-range target: Billy Horschel— $8,200 (8th Bogey Avoidance)
- Value target: Cameron Davis— $7,200— (4th Bogey Avoidance)
