FedEx St. Jude Championship PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

With the PGA TOUR regular season in the books, it’s time to begin the 2023 FedEx Cup playoffs.

Previously known as the St. Jude Classic and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the event will serve as the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the second consecutive season.

TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tennessee, and has been a regular TOUR stop since 1989.

TPC Southwind is a par 70, measuring 7,244 yards. The course features Bermudagrass greens and rough. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards, there is potential trouble on almost every hole.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship will play host to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will be a no-cut event.

For contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is excellent for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

TPC Southwind is a relatively short course, and it isn’t necessary to be a long hitter off the tee to compete. In 2020, we saw Justin Thomas win here by gaining 7.7 strokes on approach as opposed to just 2.3 off of the tee. In 2021, Abraham Ancer gained 4.4 strokes on approach and just 1.4 off the tee. In 2022, Will Zalatoris gained 7.7 strokes on approach and just 1.8 Off the Tee. Golfers with all types of skill sets can win at the course, but there is no doubt that Strokes Gained: Approach is the most predictive statistic this week.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $12,100 (1st Strokes Gained: Approach)
Mid-range target: Hideki Matsuyama — $8,400 (3rd Strokes Gained: Approach)
Value target: Aaron Rai — $7,000 (10th Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does factor in approach, but it also includes golfers who keep the ball in play in addition to solid approach play. While distance off the tee isn’t the most important factor this week, golfers will get into serious trouble if they spray the ball off the tee.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $12,100 (1st Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Mid-range target: Collin Morikawa — $9,000 (3rd Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Value target: Alex Smalley — $6,800 (6th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)

Greens in Regulation: Gained

Green in Regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is 59.2%, while the TOUR average is 65.8%. Golfers who are in control of the golf ball have had a lot of success at the course historically. The scoring should be relatively difficult this week, so fairways and greens will be the recipe for success.

High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,500 (2nd in Greens in Regulation: Gained)
Mid-range target: Rickie Fowler— $7,600 (9th in Greens in Regulation: Gained)
Value target: Emiliano Grillo— $7,100 (12th in Greens in Regulation: Gained)

Par 4: 450-500

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. There are six holes of this length at TPC Southwind, which is at least double the amount of any other distance range.

High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,500 (1st Par 4: 450-500)
Mid-range target: Hideki Matsuyama— $8,400 (6th Par 4: 450-500)
Value target: J.T. Poston— $7,300 (7th Par 4: 450-500)

Bogey Avoidance

TPC Southwind features six holes with bogey percentages above 17.5%. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are all very difficult and will give the field some trouble. With par being a good score on these particular holes, it will be essential to target golfers who tend to avoid blemishes on the scorecard.

High-end target: Rory McIlroy— $11,500 (3rd Bogey Avoidance)
Mid-range target: Tommy Fleetwood— $9,100 (1st Bogey Avoidance)
Value target: Sepp Straka— $7,700— (11th Bogey Avoidance)

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