How Do Featured Red-Zone NFL WRs Fare?

The Red Zone

Two weeks ago, we looked at how pass-happy red-zone quarterbacks fare. Last week, we looked at how high-volume red-zone running backs fare. This week, we’ll take a look at wide receivers.

Dez Bryant, for lack of a better word, is a beast. Sure, he’s struggled to put up the same numbers with Dak Prescott under center as he did with Tony Romo, but there are still very few WRs who have Bryant’s elite combination of physicality and ball skills.

Bryant’s unique skill set has made him an absolute terror inside the red zone since he entered the league. As far as red-zone conversion rate (how often a WR converts his red-zone targets into touchdowns) goes, Bryant has a case as the best red-zone WR in the league:

Bryant ranks third among the 123 receivers to start at least 10 games and have at least 25 red-zone targets since 2010. While Rishard Matthews and Donte Moncrief claim the top-two spots, it’s tough to ignore Bryant’s superior volume to go along with his elite efficiency.

Despite Bryant’s ability to convert nearly anything and everything near the goal line into touchdowns, he ranks just 13th among all receivers in total red-zone targets since 2010. The lack of volume hasn’t stopped Bryant from posting his fair share of big fantasy seasons, but it’s still perplexing that the Cowboys have essentially treated Bryant like the Dolphins treated Lamar Miller.

Out of the top-10 receivers in red-zone targets since 2010, only six of them are also in the top-10 receivers in red-zone touchdowns. Guys like Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green, and Wes Welker have found ways to have elite production in the red zone without elite-level volume. Does this mean high red-zone volume could be overrated? Or do high-volume red-zone WRs provide more value in DFS than we think? Let’s take a look.

The Study

This post will focus on WRs and how the most active red-zone WRs have fared over the past three seasons.

Using our Trends tool, I’m paying attention to three main factors:

1. Consistency: Do active red-zone WRs tend to be more consistent than WRs who aren’t featured in the red zone?
2. Plus/Minus: Do WRs who are targeted more often in the red zone tend to exceed their salary-based expectations? — and by how much?
3. Raw Points: Do WRs who are targeted more often in the red zone tend to rack up fantasy points regularly?

I pulled the top-15 WRs by season by average red-zone targets per game to get our sample group. Note: The correlation between a WR’s number of red-zone targets and number of targets inside the 10-yard line has been at 0.87 or higher during each of the past three seasons. For that reason, I will focus on only red-zone targets, since most of the same guys populate the group for targets inside the 10-yard line.

Below are the top-15 WRs in red-zone targets per game over the past three seasons (minimum eight games played):

Thanks to the fine folks at Pro Football Reference for supplying the above data. A few takeaways:

1. Only Odell Beckham Jr., Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas, and Brandon Marshall have finished in the top-15 in red-zone targets per game over each of the past three seasons. In our previous studies, only one QB and zero RBs cracked the list during all three seasons, so the turnover for WRs with an elite red-zone presence appears to be lower than it is for QBs and RBs.
2. Pass-happy offenses have been more than capable of featuring multiple WRs in the red zone. There have been several pairs of teammates who have each been fed the ball in the red zone, although they’ve come from teams (2014 Broncos/Packers/Bears, 2015 Jets, 2016 Packers/Jaguars) that have regularly aired the ball out more than most.
3. There are a lot of big receivers on the above list, but there are plenty of guys below six feet as well: Cobb, Julian Edelman, Steve Smith, Beckham and more have had elite red-zone volume despite their short stature.

Let’s take a look at how high-volume red-zone WRs have done by year.

2014

The initial returns seem to indicate that an elite red-zone presence is already priced into FD more than DK. High-volume red-zone WRs have been consistently better on DK than FD, although they’ve presented value on both sites. The sample group of WRs is fairly diverse, as studs like Megatron and Antonio Brown are joined by the rookie version of Beckham and the likes of Rueben Randle and Cecil Shorts.

2015

The 2015 season gives us basically the same story as 2014 — just to a lesser extent all around. The sample group once again consisted of some guys that we would expect, although newcomers Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins each had high red-zone volume during their respective breakout seasons.

2016

Well then. After back-to-back years of data made a good case that elite red-zone volume could be undervalued on DK and FD, we see that 2016’s sample group barely exceeded their salary-based expectations on the season. This season was unique in that four of the top-15 WRs in red-zone volume — Seth Roberts, Allen Hurns, Anquan Boldin, and Donte Moncrief — all provided very little upside on a game-to-game basis outside of the red zone. Those four WRs combined to surpass 70 receiving yards in a game just three times all season.

Takeaways

So what does all of this tell us?

1. In general, it’s good to target WRs with an elite red-zone presence. This point was especially true during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, but the 2016 sample group also had a positive Plus/Minus on both DK and FD. The WRs in the sample group as a whole averaged 1.4 red-zone targets per game.
2. There are cases in which red-zone volume can be misleading. The correlation between a WR’s targets and his red-zone targets has been at 0.84 or higher during each of the past three seasons. This means that more times than not the WRs that are racking up targets between the 20s are also being fed the ball close to the goal line. Of course, there are exceptions, and that is where guys like Roberts and Moncrief come into play. Like any statistic, red-zone volume shouldn’t be relied on as an end-all solution.
3. A player’s red-zone presence can often be a good indicator of their overall involvement in the offense. We see guys like ODB in 2014, Nuk in 2015, and Michael Thomas in 2016 who we knew had talent, but we weren’t so sure about their workload. With such a high correlation between targets and red-zone targets, it’s a good idea to consider both target totals and shoot for the WRs who have been featured all over the field. This will not only help identify featured WRs who have proven to consistently exceed their salary-based expectations, but it will also highlight players who may be struggling yet have a large role in the offense and are due for positive regression.

Next week we’ll take a look at tight ends.