Successful daily fantasy baseball players utilize Vegas data in their decision-making. If you look at our DFS Ownership Dashboard, you can often see the extent to which Vegas implications correlate with ownership in guaranteed prize pools.
Let’s dig into the FantasyLabs Trends tool to see what value we can find for hitters with our Vegas Score metric. It’s important to note that Vegas Score is a team-specific (not game specific) metric. It takes into account all of the Vegas-based factors (run total, moneyline, line movement, etc.).
Uber Vegas Score
A Vegas Score in the 90s leads to a high FanDuel Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating:
I’m designating a Vegas Score of 90 and above as “Uber Vegas.”
Of the 24,141 Uber Vegas instances, 4,676 have come at Coors Field as of Friday night. Globe Life Park in Arlington and Fenway Park are next with 2,439 and 2,158.
Only three fields have negative Plus/Minus values with Vegas Scores of at least 90: Petco Park (-0.1), Tropicana Field (-0.7), and PNC Park (-0.9).
Uber Vegas and Heavy Favorites
The more a batter’s team is favored, the better he does with a Vegas Score of 90-plus. With moneyline odds of at least -220, hitters have a FanDuel Plus/Minus of +1.84 with a 46 percent Consistency Rating, 20 percent Upside Rating, and 12.1 percent ownership.
With moneyline odds of at least -240, hitters enjoy a Plus/Minus of +2.26 with the same 12 percent ownership and higher Consistency and Upside Ratings.
Underdogs with Uber Vegas
Only 10 percent of Uber Vegas hitters are underdogs — but they actually outperform the Uber Vegas favorites (+1.8 Plus/Minus vs. +1.2). The underdogs also have a higher Upside Rating (20 percent to 18) and Consistency Rating (46 to 43) and lower ownership (8.4 to 10.5).
When Uber Vegas underdogs are available in a slate, they often make for desirable options. Note that 61 percent of the time when an underdog has a Vegas Score surpassing 90 the game is at Coors Field.
If we look at the home/road splits of Uber Vegas dogs . . .
. . . we see that home dogs outperform road underdogs (+1.98 to +1.6) with a lower ownership (6.8 to 9) and higher Consistency (49 to 45) and Upside (21 to 19).
Uber Vegas and the Total
When a game has an implied total of no more than 10 runs, Uber Vegas hitters have produced a Plus/Minus of ‘just’ +1.05. In the 5,013 instances in which batters have had Vegas Scores above 90 and game totals of at least 10.5 runs, hitters have enjoyed a +2.10 boost to their Plus/Minus values:
Uber Vegas and Line Movement
When Uber Vegas hitters are on a team with negative or no change in implied run total, they’ve had a +1.12 Plus/Minus — down from the original +1.27 baseline.
Positive change in implied total can lead to some high Plus/Minus values, but primarily at the extremes. An increase of 0.7 runs in team total has been accompanied by a +1.88 Plus/Minus — but that type of increase doesn’t happen often.
Uber Vegas and Time Filters
Last year was a down season for Uber Vegas hitters: They had ‘only’ a +1.0 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Perhaps the decrease in performance was due to tighter pricing, but maybe not. In 2012, 2014, and 2015, hitters had a +1.6 FanDuel Plus/Minus in the same situation. In 2013 they had a +0.9 Plus/Minus.
In terms of months, there doesn’t seem to be an actionable trend that shows Vegas Score to be more profitable at any certain time of the season. April and May are two of the lower Plus/Minus months, but so is September. The best month is June (+1.6), but the worst is July (+0.8). Months almost certainly don’t matter.
Uber Vegas and Salary Ranges
Here’s a salary breakdown for Uber Vegas batters:
On FanDuel, about 72 percent of the value falls in the $2,500-$3,999 range, but that’s largely because that’s where most of the players are. The best Plus/Minus numbers are where the stars lie — above $4,000.
On DraftKings there’s less difference between the pricing buckets. With the exception of the $4,500-$4,999 range, production is relatively consistent starting at $3,500.
Uber Vegas and Lineup Order
There aren’t many surprises when it comes to lineup order:
We know that lineup order means everything for fantasy points, and that’s still true for Uber Vegas batters. The 1-5 spots on both sites are ripe with value. At the same time, it’s notable that some Uber Vegas batters return value even in the bottom half of the lineup. That’s not usual.
Conclusion
Vegas Score is the result of all the Vegas factors applicable to a team. Hitters with elite Vegas Scores do better when the score is linked to high implied totals or moneyline odds than to line movement. Also, Uber Vegas underdogs tend to outperform favorites and have lower ownership.
Pro subscribers should be sure to experiment with our Vegas Score metric when constructing their own Player Models. In the Bales Model, it’s currently the the factor with the heaviest weighting.
