Consider this your one-stop shop for all things concerning the NFL Wild Card Weekend DFS slate. As always, consult our tools below for an even deeper dive into the numbers. Good luck!
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Positional Breakdowns
Quarterback
The clock struck midnight on Blake Bortles’ December fairy tale, as he managed just 158 yards, zero touchdowns and three points against the Titans after averaging 321 passing yards and 2.25 touchdowns per game in Weeks 13-16. It wouldn’t be surprising if the league’s most run-heavy offense went even further out of their way to take the ball out of Bortles’ hands with their season on the line, especially against the Bills’ run-funnel defense that ranks 12th in pass DVOA and 31st against the run.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt’s only rush in Week 17 went for a 35-yard touchdown, marking the fifth time in as many games that he found the end zone after head coach Andy Reid handed off play calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Not including his rest-filled game in Week 17, Hunt has averaged an additional five rushes and 1.4 targets per game in four full contests after the coaching shift. His ten carries inside the 10-yard line in Weeks 13-16 are more than he had in Weeks 1-12 combined (per 4for4’s Chris Raybon). It makes sense to feed the only back in the league to rank among the top three backs in both Elusive Rating and percentage of runs to go for 15-plus yards (PFF). Next up for Hunt is a Titans defense that only Gurley has broken 100 yards against this season, although they rank 31st in DVOA on runs over left tackle – precisely where the Chiefs’ eighth-ranked unit looks to run the ball behind former No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher.
Wide Receiver
Ted Ginn has posted 2-44-1 and 2-27-0 line in his two #RevengeGames against the Panthers this season, obviously demonstrating the boom-or-bust nature of his fantasy production. This shouldn’t be viewed as a negative on Ginn. Most receivers don’t even have “boom” in their range of outcomes. He’s one of just 19 receivers to average over 1.9 yards per route run this season, while only Tyreek Hill and Juju Smith-Schuster topped Ginn’s average of 11.4 yards per target. The Panthers haven’t found much success with similar field-stretching types, as Robby Anderson (6-146-2), Chris Godwin (3-98-0) and Kenny Stills (6-66-0) all had their way with the league’s 19th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. WR1s and WR2s.
Tight End
Austin Hooper has been an afterthought for the Falcons this year, but Atlanta is implied to score more points (21.5) than any road team on Wild Card weekend. The Rams are hardly an imposing defense to the tight end position ranking 19th in DVOA. With no more than four targets in a game since Week 12, Hooper may provide less safety than Charles Clay, but he has (theoretical) as much touchdown equity as any of the other punt options. He just happens to be the No. 1 DraftKings tight end in the CSURAM88 Model.
Defense and Special Teams
The New Orleans Saints host the Carolina Panthers as seven-point favorites and have our second-highest projected sack total (2.9) on the slate. Carolina’s offesive line allowed the 14th-highest adjusted sack rate (7.1 percent) and the New Orleans defense registered the sixth-best adjusted sack rate (7.8 percent) during the regular season. The Saints were tied for sixth in the NFL with 42 sacks and ranked third with their 20 interceptions and 3.6 percent interception rate this season. New Orleans averaged 10.0 PPG with a +3.00 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.36 Plus/Minus on FanDuel at home this season. Playing in the final game of Wild Card Weekend, the Saints D/ST present an interesting hammer opportunity.
Read more in the Defense and Special Teams Breakdown
Everything Else You Need To Know
The No. 2 pass-catcher in terms of target share over the past four weeks is . . . Charles Clay? The Buffalo tight end has seen a whopping 29.6 percent of his team’s targets over that time period and his raw target total (32) isn’t bad either. The Bills have a brutal matchup against the Jaguars, who rank first in total defensive DVOA and first against the pass. That said, they’re just 20th this season specifically against TEs. The Bills should have a pass-heavy game script as 8.5-point road dogs. Especially with LeSean McCoy day-to-day with an ankle issue, Clay could be a sneaky PPR value. Read more market share notes in this week’s piece.
The Rams enter the playoffs first in the NFL with 29.88 PPG and a smoking +6.05 Vegas Plus/Minus even with their intentional no-show against the 49ers in Week 17. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have exorcised the Jeff Fisher demons: Quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley look like new players, they have literally an entirely different wide receiver unit with Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, and Cooper Kupp, and the defense has been revitalized thanks to new coordinator Wade Phillips. As it happens, in the first round they are facing the Falcons, who (aside from the Raiders at -4.25) have underperformed their implied Vegas totals more than any other team has this season. Read more about the Vegas Plus/Minus for each playoff team and their daily fantasy implications in this week’s Vegas Outliers piece.
The Vikings lost their starting quarterback and running back early in the season, but still managed to score the 10th-most points in the league behind Case Keenum and the Latavius Murray/Jerick McKinnon combo. Assuming Pat Elflein and Kyle Rudolph are able to suit up after having a bye week to rest, the Vikings will have the league’s No. 2 defense in overall DVOA – as well as the No. 6 offensive line in adjusted sack rate – healthy and ready to go for the Divisional Round. Find out where Minnesota and the other remaining Super Bowl contenders stand as we rank the healthiest NFL playoff teams.
History’s best defenses have historically won championships and lots of them, but the Jags don’t quite belong in that group — yet. Their total defensive DVOA would rank around 40th in the 324-team sample, but that’s mostly because of their run defense. Their pass defense is in the top tier, ranking about 10th in the sample. Of the top-15 pass defenses since the 1990-1991 season, seven won Super Bowls and three more lost in the Conference Championship. Read how some notable historic trends could be favorable for Jacksonville and New England in this NFL Playoff Outliers piece.
The team with the highest funnel rating is the Jaguars with an 85.96 run funnel rating against the Bills. And that’s not a case of the slate being a small one: That mark would have easily been the top run funnel rating of last week’s massive 16-game slate. The Jaguars love to run the ball with their top-five pick Leonard Fournette, rushing on 48.9 percent of their plays. And they have a brilliant matchup to do exactly that against a Bills squad that ranks 12th against the pass and 31st against the run. That’s a strong run funnel, and it’s one the Jags will likely stumble into anyway as large 8.5-point home favorites. Matchup-wise, Fournette is in the best spot of the slate. Read more in this NFL Wild Card Funnel Defense Ratings piece.
Photo via Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports.
