Consider this your one-stop shop for all things concerning the Week 17 DFS slate. As always, consult our tools below for an even deeper dive into the numbers. Good luck!
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Positional breakdowns
Quarterback
The sample is small, but in the preseason Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes looked like a future franchise quarterback, completing 63.0 percent of his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns (with no interceptions) and adding eight rushes for 44 yards. The Broncos have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Facing a defense that has allowed opponents to hit their implied Vegas totals in 10 of 15 games, Mahomes will be popular with people who want to pay down at quarterback.
Running Back
With Todd Gurley set to rest Sunday, Malcolm Brown will take over as the Rams starting running back. He’s racked up double-digit carries in three blowouts this season, but has never received a true shot at featured-back duties. Standing 5’11” 225 pounds, Brown has good size and agility (6.86-second 3-cone drill), but his projection is filled with unknown entities considering he’s running behind a backup-filled offensive line with Sean Mannion making his first career start under center.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen’s 5-63-0 performance (not including an interception!) last week against the Jets marked just the sixth time in 22 games with double-digit targets that he didn’t score a touchdown or surpass 100 yards. Another big workload should be on the horizon with the continued absence of Hunter Henry (kidney, IR). The Chargers will need their No. 1 receiver more than ever with the team fighting for their playoff lives. Allen’s matchup against the Raiders is far from concerning given their performance against some notable slot receivers this season:
- Sterling Shepard: 6 tgts, 3-56-0
- Danny Amendola: 9 tgts, 8-66-1
- Jarvis Landry: 7 tgts, 6-32-1
- Jeremy Maclin: 8 tgts, 6-43-0
- Jamison Crowder: 6 tgts, 6-52-0
Defense and Special Teams
The Minnesota Vikings take on Chicago as large 13-point home favorites with the Bears implied to score a slate-low 13.3 points. Historically, defenses favored by double-digit points at home have averaged 10.47 PPG with a +2.08 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 10.34 PPG with a +2.61 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Vikings D/ST have averaged 9.00 PPG at home this season with a +1.93 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +2.16 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Read more in the Defense and Special Teams Breakdown
Everything Else You Need To Know
If it was unclear last week who would be the workhorse at running back in New England, the picture seems less fuzzy now. Dion Lewis got 70.6 percent of the team’s carries in Week 16 after getting 76.5 percent in Week 15. He crushed with his 29 total opportunities last week, posting a 24-129-1 line on the ground and a 5-24-1 line through the air. He’s set up well again in Week 17 as a massive 16.5-point home favorite against a Jets squad with nothing to play for; the Patriots are playing for the No. 1 seed. Read more market share notes in this week’s piece.
On the road in Tampa, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and the Saints lead the rushing projections. The two backs each have 12 touchdowns, combining for more than half of the scores on one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. The Saints carry the slate’s second-highest team total, and the Buccaneers are a perfect match for what New Orleans does well, allowing seven rushing scores in the last five games. New Orleans needs a win to ensure they take down the division and earn a home playoff game, so it’s unlikely they’ll back off from what has been such a winning strategy all season. Expect one or both of the Saints backs to hit paydirt in Week 17. Read more in the Week 17 Deconstructing Vegas Lines piece.
“Maybe Sean McVay is operating under the assumption that the No. 3 seed is unimportant to the Rams because their home-field advantage in Los Angeles isn’t worth much — but I doubt that thought has crossed his mind: It’s certainly better to play with minimal home-field advantage than to play on another’s team field. That should be apparent.” Matthew Freedman breaks down why it would be a mistake for the rookie Rams head coach to rest his starters in Week 17 with the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the NFC still undetermined in the latest edition of The Labyrinthian.
After yet another underwhelming performance, the Falcons are last in the league with a -4.33 Vegas Plus/Minus. Quarterback Matt Ryan is yet to pass for more than two touchdowns in any game. They’re -4.0 home favorites against the Panthers and are implied for 25.25 points. A win gets them into the playoffs, so the Falcons are motivated — but I wouldn’t bet on them to hit their Vegas expectation. Joining the Falcons in the basement are the Texans, who are sixth overall with a +2.10 but dead last at -6.33 (and 13.0 PPG) in the nine games not started by rookie phenom Deshaun Watson. The Colts don’t have a great defense, but the Texans will likely have a hard time hitting the 18.5 points for which they’re implied on the road. Read more about the Vegas Plus/Minus for each team and their daily fantasy implications in this week’s Vegas Outliers piece.
Oh my, oh my, do the Panthers have a lot to play for. They are locked into the playoffs as at worst the No. 5 seed. If they win and the Saints lose then the Panthers will be the NFC South champions — and if the Vikings also lose the Panthers will then be the No. 2 seed due to their Week 14 victory over the Vikings. Read about the Week 17 motivations for Carolina and each of the other 31 NFL teams here.
Speaking of the Panthers, you could do worse than a combination of Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess and opposing WR Julio Jones when looking for stacking options in Week 17. Read about that and the other top stacks of the weekend here.
Photo via Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports.
