Consider this your one-stop shop for all things concerning the Week 15 DFS slate. As always, consult our tools below for an even deeper dive into the numbers. Good luck!
Models | Vegas Dashboard | Matchups | Injuries
Positional breakdowns
Quarterback
Russell Wilson just put up 24.84 fantasy points against the Jaguars last week: It doesn’t matter who he faces. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Rams defense, which is third in pass DVOA with a solid secondary and strong pass rushers in tackle Aaron Donald and edge Robert Quinn, but the Seahawks are -2.0 home favorites implied for 25.0 points. A notoriously slow starter, Wilson has been the No. 1 fantasy quarterback since his Week 6 bye, passing for 2,305 yards, rushing for 328 yards, and scoring 23 total touchdowns in his past eight games.
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell has been scratching fantasy player’s backs all season thanks to an absolutely ridiculous receiving workload. Overall, he’s converted 92 targets into a season-long 75-579-2 line, which would rank him as the 28th-most productive PPR wide receiver before factoring in his rushing numbers. Ben Roethlisberger had thrown more than 40 passes only once in Weeks 1-10, but he’s met that threshold in each of the past four weeks. Bell has hung 4-65-0 and 10-68-0 receiving lines on the Patriots during his career and will be looking for redemption after being forced to leave last season’s AFC Championship early with a groin injury.
Wide Receiver
Devin Funchess is quickly establishing himself as a true matchup-proof WR1 in the absence of Kelvin Benjamin. Overall, he’s converted an average of 7.8 targets into a 4.8-81-0.8 line since Benjamin was traded prior to Week 9. The Packers have allowed the most DraftKings PPG, highest Plus/Minus, and highest Consistency Rating to opposing wide receivers units this season. Funchess is the top-rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s model, and he leads all receivers with a +2.07 Projected Plus/Minus.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski has an intriguing matchup. The Steelers are first against tight ends in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), but that ranking is now largely irrelevant, as Ryan Shazier (back) is now on Injured Reserve. Pro Football Focus’ No. 7 coverage linebacker, Shazier would’ve provided much of the pass defense on Gronk if he were active. The Pats are -3.0 favorites, and the game leads the slate with an over/under of 53.0 points, so Gronk will likely have the opportunity to produce even if the Patriots offense struggles: Gronk is an important part of New England’s identity. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Gronk has position-high median, ceiling, and floor projections and is the No. 1 FanDuel tight end in the Levitan Model.
Defense and Special Teams
As stated in this column for the past several weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars are on a historic run. They are currently on pace to be the highest-scoring and most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus) fantasy defense of the past four seasons. The Jaguars lead the NFL with a 4.4 percent interception rate and a 9.9 percent sack rate. Houston’s offensive line has allowed the sixth-highest adjusted sack rate (8.4 percent) in the league this season, and they will starting third-string quarterback T.J. Yates.
Read more in the D/ST Breakdown
Everything Else You Need To Know
Matthew Freedman talks about the error of multiple accounting in DFS: “Matchups aren’t overvalued just in the player production submarket. They’re also probably overvalued in the platform salary submarket and definitely overvalued in the ownership submarket. Matchups are given too much predictive weight across the entirety of the industry, especially if we take into account how the salary and ownership submarkets work together.” Read more on why NFL matchups don’t matter (much) in DFS
A month or so ago, we released a new NFL Player Props tool. Matthew Freedman has written how to use the NFL props market to supplement your DFS investment, and Team FantasyLabs member Kevin “The Sports Geek” posted a video on how he uses the new tool. Check it out
Easily the strongest run funnel situation in Week 15 is the Texans versus the Jaguars. However, the high spread makes it less appealing. In fact, that is how a lot of the run funnel situations are this week: The five teams with the highest run funnel ratings are all underdogs this week. The sixth team, the Buffalo Bills, are currently 3.5-point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins, who are actually a very strong pass funnel defense; the Bills own a high run funnel rating because of their strong running game and high run play percentage. It is likely they will run the ball a lot, and they’ll especially do so if there is bad weather again: LeSean McCoy carried the ball 32 times last week in Buffalo’s winter wonderland game. Read more in this week’s Funnel Defense Ratings piece
New Orleans has scored the second-highest percentage of points via rushing touchdowns, and yet Drew Brees and the passing attack lead the passing projections this week, as the Jets allow 25 passing touchdowns this season, one off the league lead. With the Saints as 16-point favorites, the question is whether the matchup will enable Brees to throw enough and in high-leverage situations. The Models love him at only $6,500 on DraftKings, where he carries a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Quarterbacks in similar spots have tended to perform well with a +1.36 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Read more in the Week 15 Deconstructing Vegas Lines piece
Saturday football? Saturday football. Joe Holka argues why Marvin Jones is a sneaky play: “Chicago ranks 22th in DVOA against opposing WR1s and 26th in regards to defending the middle of the field. Obviously, the matchup sets up well for Golden Tate, but consider: Jones has gotten 40 percent of the Lions’ market share of air yards over the past four games. He is tied with Allen and Tyreek Hill for the most DraftKings Pro Trends at the wide receiver position.” Read the entire Saturday slate breakdown here
Seven players have hit the 30-plus percent target share mark over the past four games. Most are names you’d expect like A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown. The one surprising name is Green Bay’s Davante Adams, who has emerged this season as the Packers’ WR1 ahead of Jordy Nelson. Of course, that is with Brett Hundley under center instead of superstar Aaron Rodgers, who is on track to return in Week 15 against the Panthers. How the market share breaks down with the QB shift will be important to watch. Read more market share notes in this week’s piece
Even though the Rams have one of the most explosive offenses in the league and are expected to get back wide receiver Robert Woods (shoulder), they could be a contrarian team to stack. Running back Todd Gurley leads the league with 13 touchdowns from scrimmage and could benefit significantly if Wagner and Wright are out. Read about why Gurley could smash the injured Seahawks and more in this week’s Vegas outliers piece
In this week’s NFL Flex podcast, guest David Kitchen discussed why Miami RB Kenyan Drake will be the chalk in Week 15. You don’t want to miss this conversation. Listen to the Flex podcast here
Finally, Ian Hartitz updates practice notes and projected game statuses all week on our Injury Dashboard. You’ll want to keep this page up throughout the weekend to stay up to date on all injuries ahead of the Week 15 slate. NFL Week 15 Injury Dashboard
