Consider this your one-stop shop for all things concerning the Week 13 DFS slate. As always, consult our tools below for an even deeper dive into the numbers. Good luck!
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Positional breakdowns
Quarterback
The Chargers and Philip Rivers are cresting with an implied total of 28.25 points as home -14 favorites versus the QB-friendly Browns (27th against the pass in DVOA). As heavy chalk QB plays go there are none chalkier as the Bolts’ passing-points expectations are the steepest on the slate.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy has at least three receptions in all but two games this season, easing concerns over his workload if the Patriots jump out to a large lead. The Bills offense will once again roll with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback — good news for Shady considering his historical success with rushing quarterbacks, as well as his shared severe home/away splits with TyGod.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks’ status as Tom Brady‘s No. 1 receiver gives him a solid weekly floor, but Cooks doesn’t come without risk. With Cooks carrying his highest salary since the second week of the season, it wouldn’t be prudent to dismiss the Bills secondary. The unit is one of just seven in the league this season to have allowed three or fewer pass plays of 40-plus yards.
Tight End
When Jordan Matthews departed Philly for Buffalo prior to the start of this season, Zach Ertz snagged the slot man role for himself. In a dozen games played without Matthews, Ertz has converted 112 targets into a 77/857/10 line while cementing himself as a weekly top-three TE. Ertz, who leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models. Plus, the Eagles are absolutely crushing it with an NFL-high 37 offensive touchdowns, a 71.8 percent red zone conversion rate and 31.91 points per game (PPG).
Defense and Special Teams
The Rams obviously have a leg up on the slate with their peerless placekicker Greg Zuerlein, booter of double-digit FanDuel points in five of his past six games en route to potentially the highest-scoring season any kicker has ever had. In five games at a salary of at least $5,000 Zuerlein’s scored 10.2 PPG with a +1.78 Plus/Minus.
Read more in the D/ST Breakdown
Everything Else You Need To Know
Head, shoulders, neck and torso above all other possible candidates for offensive rookie of the year, Saints RB Alvin Kamara is as chalky a play as anything available. Who saw this coming? Well, we did, actually. But then, is it really so surprising that a running back with good size and athleticism from the SEC is having a great rookie season on a historically productive offense after he averaged 104.7 yards and 1.36 touchdowns per game across his three-year college career? Not really. Which is why it bears repeating: NFL prospect evaluation has a lot of DFS value. Read more on the importance of prospect evaluation in The Labyrinthian
Devin Funchess is unquestionably now Cam Newton‘s No. 1 option. Funchess has gone for 20.8 and 26.2 DraftKings points over his past two games. Now consider this: he could face a Saints defense sans Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley. Read more in the Market Share Report
Raiders-Giants has a melancholic vibe with New York having just benched a beloved future Hall of Famer and Derek Carr set to miss his two best weapons, with Amari Cooper doubtful and Michael Crabtree suspended. Carr can’t be plucked for the kind of rock-bottom prices surrounding some other quarterbacks. But due to the status of his WRs, he’ll likely go lower-owned in that middle range. The Stacking tool suggests myriad ways you can play the low-cost Raiders passing game. Read more in the Deconstructing Vegas Lines column
The Chargers defense has a league-high +4.73 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus, not to mention two of Pro Football Focus’ highest-ranked edge pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Even without No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett (knee, Injured Reserve) the Chargers have three starting corners in Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King with top-15 PFF grades at the position. During their recent 5-2 run to charge back into the AFC West race, the Chargers have held opponents to 15.57 PPG. Read more in the Week 13 Production Profile
Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert may not be so awful after all. In Week 11 he threw three touchdowns for the first time in his career. And then he followed that up with 241 yards and two touchdowns against the Jags, the franchise that drafted and then discarded him for Blake Bortles. The Cardinals have only hit their implied total three times (a league low); however, two of those games have come in the past two weeks with Gabbert as the starter. Read more in the Forward Pass
