Pitchers are important building blocks for daily fantasy baseball lineups, and strikeouts are one of the main ways through which pitchers accumulate fantasy points. In this piece I leverage the FantasyLabs tools to examine the utility of our K Prediction metric, which is available for every starting pitcher in our Models.
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Strikeout Prediction Percentile
With our Trends tool, we can see how various pitchers have historically performed on DraftKings (since 2016) and FanDuel (since 2012) based on their strikeout prediction percentiles.
It’s no surprise that pitchers with low K Predictions have struggled to produce fantasy points: Pitchers in the two lowest quintiles have failed to reach salary-based expectations more often than not. In contrast, pitchers in the two highest quintiles have historically provided value.
And once we hit the 80th percentile we see the biggest jump in average fantasy points, Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating. Naturally enough, pitchers in the top quintile have also seen the biggest ownership spike.
Strikeout Prediction
Our K Prediction is calculated by looking at a number of factors, such as pitcher and hitter strikeout rates and anticipated batters faced. As lineups are confirmed, a pitcher’s K Prediction may change. Let’s look at how pitchers have performed with specific K Predictions.
As K Prediction increases, so does production. Historically, pitchers with sub-5.0 K Predictions have been poor fantasy producers. Once pitchers cross the threshold of a 6.0 K Prediction, their raw numbers and Consistency Ratings dramatically improve.
You’ll notice that pitchers with nine-plus projected strikeouts have been more productive than the pitchers in the top quintile of the metric. That’s because these elite strikeout pitchers are typically in the 95th percentile. While these pitchers are strong producers, they are owned at much higher rates than the pitchers with just 6-9 K Predictions. If looking for pivot plays in guaranteed prize pools, you might be able to find optimal options in this range. Additionally, pitchers in this middle tier tend to be less expensive, so they afford DFS players the opportunity to build high-priced stacks.
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2018 Results
We’re into the last third of the season, so let’s see what the K Prediction metric has meant for 2018.
Pitchers with poor K Predictions have continued to struggle to meet salary-based expectations, and pitchers with high K Predictions have continued to see massive ownership, albeit with slightly less success. The sweet spot for the metric continues to be in the 6-9 K range, where pitchers have good production at reduced ownership rates.
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Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
