In Part 4 of this series, I highlight running backs whose touchdown totals are likely to decline in 2018. Now let’s take a look at backs who could increase their touchdown production in 2018.
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Jerick McKinnon (Current ADP: RB14)
2017: 3 rush TDs, 2 rec TDs (5 total TDs)
Since 2012, RB1s under 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan have scored 13, 7, 8, 14, 13 and 8 total touchdowns. Over the last six years, Shanahan’s backfield units have averaged 15.2 total touchdowns per year, which ranks sixth among 2018 play-callers. Even Carlos Hyde scored eight rushing touchdowns last year, and that was without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the majority of the season.
Enter McKinnon. Through 58 NFL games, McKinnon has produced 2,902 total yards and 12 total touchdowns, good for 362 total fantasy points. More impressively, he did that on just 1,529 snaps, forced to share time with Adrian Peterson, Matt Asiata, Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook during his first four seasons.
But now he’s the guy in San Francisco, with only Matt Breida challenging him for snaps. Given Shanahan’s historical usage of running backs in Washington, Cleveland and Atlanta, there’s a non-zero chance McKinnon approaches 300 total opportunities (carries and targets) in 2018. McKinnon’s five touchdown total in 2017 will also likely increase: No RB1 has ever scored fewer than seven rushing touchdowns in Shanahan’s offense. In-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner projects him for over eight total touchdowns. McKinnon is currently being drafted as a high-end RB2, but he could finish as a top-10 back if he stays healthy.
Joe Mixon (Current ADP: RB16)
2017: 4 rush TDs, 0 rec TDs (4 total TDs)
Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor isn’t historically a huge fan of giving running backs a ton of work, but he does have a decent record of feeding RB1s goal-line touches. For example, when Lazor was the Dolphins OC in 2014-15, Lamar Miller had eight rushing touchdowns each season, finishing as the fantasy RB9 and RB6.
Across Lazor’s career, his backfields have averaged 8.3 rushing touchdowns and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season, which isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. But he also has a record of favoring RB1s and eschewing opportunities for RB2s. That history puts Mixon in a reasonably advantageous position for 2018.
Mixon’s four-touchdown total last year was obviously low to begin with. An elite athlete with a diverse skill set, he was always likely to increase his touchdown total this year, and Lazor’s history also points to Mixon’s improvement. Koerner projects Mixon for just under eight touchdowns, almost double his rookie output.
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Jay Ajayi (Current ADP: RB18)
2017: 1 rush TD, 1 rec TD (2 total TDs)
After finishing as the fantasy RB11 in 2016, Ajayi massively disappointed in 2017, finishing as the RB33 with 242 opportunities and just two touchdowns in 14 games. HC Adam Gase publicly criticized Ajayi’s effort, commitment and intelligence, ultimately trading him to the Eagles in the middle of the season. Ajayi then slowly acclimated to the Eagles offense, learning a new playbook as he competed for touches in a crowded backfield unit.
The backfield is still crowded, but Ajayi now looks like the early-down back. HC Doug Pederson has reiterated this offseason that Ajayi is the clear lead back entering 2018. Furthermore, as Ian Hartitz discusses in his analysis of Ajayi, with the departure of LeGarrette Blount, Ajayi should feature prominently in goal-line sets.
So what can we expect from Ajayi in 2018? Since Pederson became an OC in 2013, his backfields have averaged 12.6 rushing and 4.4 receiving touchdowns per season. That’s 17 total per season, which ranks third in the NFL among 2018 play-callers, behind only Josh McDaniels (Patriots) and Sean Payton (Saints). Even in a committee, there are touchdowns for Ajayi in Philadelphia.
Ajayi demonstrated in 2016 what he’s capable of, finishing the season with 295 opportunities and eight rushing touchdowns. Based on Pederson’s offensive play-calling style (as a disciple of Andy Reid) and his historical production, it’s realistic to expect Ajayi to return to his 2016 touchdown mark of at least eight rushing touchdowns. Under Pederson, RB1s have historically averaged between 8-10 touchdowns per season.
Of course, it’s possible that Ajayi could lose substantial work to Corey Clement and even the returning Darren Sproles. Koerner is admittedly more bearish on Ajayi, projecting him for just over six total touchdowns in 2018. Take both the upside and downside into consideration when drafting Ajayi. As the RB18 off the board, Ajayi has an ADP that might undervalue his upside. He’s likely worth reaching for in standard leagues, but continue to fade him in point-per-reception formats.
Kenyan Drake (Current ADP: RB21)
2017: 3 rush TDs, 1 rec TDs (4 total TDs)
I’m bullish on Drake, and it has everything to do with HC Adam Gase’s record with running backs. With the exception of last year, Gase has generated productive backfields since becoming a coordinator in 2013.
Then 2017 happened, Ajayi was traded in the middle of a disappointing season for the team, and Drake was given the keys to a car going nowhere. For the season, last year’s unit had five total touchdowns. That’s not great, but last year was simply a poor season for a team missing its starting quarterback, and — on the plus side — four of the backfield touchdowns were Drake’s.
Gase’s career averages of 10.8 rushing touchdowns and 3.0 receiving touchdowns for his backfields is compelling. The average of 13.8 total touchdowns ranks eighth among 2018 NFL play-callers, and prior to last year Gase had four straight seasons with a top-12 fantasy RB in his backfield.
With the exit of Ajayi, Drake has massive upside, evidenced by the 15.3 fantasy points he scored in nine games without Ajayi last year and 17.7 points in the season’s final five games. Currently, Drake’s ADP has him as the RB21, and that seems low considering Gase’s history.
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Jerick McKinnon
