The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($10,000) Houston Astros (-179) vs. Minnesota Twins
After getting his feet wet — mostly out of the bullpen — in 2022, Brown has emerged as a top starter this season for the Astros. He has a 3.01 ERA, with his ERA indicators all in a similar range. More importantly for DFS, his 28.1% strikeout rate is also excellent.
The 24-year-old average over 96 mph on his fastball, with a plus-slider and elite curveball thrown into the mix. The combination of velocity and breaking pitches should allow him to continue to improve the strikeout rate as he gets a better feel for his pitches at the big league level.
Especially tonight against the Twins, who have a roughly average wRC+ against righties but the highest strikeout rate in the league. Vegas has their implied total as the lowest on the evening slate, while Brown leads the slate in K prediction.
He’s the clear top option in all contest types tonight, with massive strikeout upside.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Alek Manoah ($6,900) Toronto Blue Jays (-174) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Manoah is off to an awful 2023, with a 5.53 ERA and underlying metrics in the same range. However, there’s a case to be made that he’s far better than those numbers indicate. The third-year starter had xERA marks of 3.31 and 3.30 his first two years in the big leagues, and at just 25, we’d be expecting him to continue to improve, if anything.
He has a solid shot to right the ship tonight against a Brewers team that ranks bottom-10 in wRC+ and top 10 in strikeouts against righties. They aren’t quite bad enough that we’ll blindly target pitchers against them, but under the right circumstances, they can be exploited.
For a pitcher like Manoah, who has a long track record of being very good than he has of being bad, this is exactly the kind of above-average matchup we’re looking for. Manoah has been considerably more expensive for much of the year, making this a perfect buy-low opportunity if he can return to form.
Even at his peak, Manoah wasn’t a massive strikeout pitcher, which limits his upside a bit and makes him a better cash game option. As does his ownership projections — which have him as one of the more popular options. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal projections.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Aaron Nola ($9,100) Philadelphia Phillies (-120) at New York Mets
Like Manoah, Nola is having a fairly down year relative to his recent performance, with a 4.59 ERA through 11 starts. The case for him is even more clear though, as all of his ERA indicators point to him being more unlucky than bad on the season.
More concerning is his strikeout rate, which has dipped to 21.7% after three straight years above 29%. While his swinging strike rate is down as well, the change there is much smaller. He has a nearly identical swinging strike rate as he did in 2017 when his strikeout rate was 5% higher.
All of this points to Nola being due for some positive regression at some point. While tonight isn’t the likeliest time — given the somewhat difficult matchup — it’s hard to predict exactly when he’ll return to form. With his depressed salary and relatively low ownership projections, he’s worth the risk in larger field tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
An unorthodox 1-2-3-5-7 Blue Jays stack comes out on top, at least based on the projected lineup in the morning. Be sure to check in on that closer to lock, as number seven hitter Daulton Varsho has spent some time as the cleanup hitter this season.
These are the types of stacks I like to prioritize in big tournaments. What we lose in projected points is more than accounted for in salary and ownership savings — and in this case, Varsho is projecting better than the Blue Jays’ No. 4 hitter anyway.
Toronto has an excellent 5.6-run total at home tonight, and this is a fairly reasonable price point given that implied total. It also makes sense to stack the Blue Jays with Manoah since a ceiling game from the bats correlates heavily with Manoah picking up a win bonus.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Justin Turner 1B/3B ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds (Luke Weaver)
I’m pivoting off of the Blue Jays’ Chapman at third base today. One of the reasons is so I can build a “wrap around” stack with Toronto’s eight or nine hitter. That should be even more contrarian than the optimal stack featured above and correlate slightly better from a batting order standpoint.
The other reason is because Turner projects about half of a point better than Chapman while saving a full $1,000 in salary on DraftKings. His Red Sox lead the slate with a 6.1-run total, and we’d expect him to play a significant role in their offense as the number three hitter.
Turner is an excellent option to get high value exposure to the Red Sox at a cheap price on Wednesday.
Bryson Stott 2B ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (Carlos Carrason)
For some reason, FanDuel continues to price the Phillies way too cheaply, with their top six hitters all having a Bargain Rating of at least 72% and Scott checking in at 80%. The Phillies are a slightly above-average team against righties this season with a wrc+ of 101 and have an excellent matchup with the Mets and Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco has a 6.75 ERA through five starts this season, with ERA indicators all in a similar range. With Stott leading off in front of a solid lineup, Stott is in a great position to score some runs today. He has a strong .287 batting average on the season, with some power and speed upside as well.
Stott is projecting well enough to be a value on DraftKings as well, but he really shines thanks to his budget price on FanDuel.
Pavin Smith 1B/OF ($3,100 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Dinelson Lamet)
Smith is another leadoff hitter with too cheap of a price tag relative to his team’s total tonight. To be fair to the pricing algorithms, Smith hasn’t been great this season. He’s hitting just .212, with five home runs through 39 games.
Still, he’s a bit of a regression candidate, with a BABIP 60 points off his career mark. That number regressing wouldn’t make him a great contact hitter by any stretch, but it would bring his average to a respectable level. With his solid power, we can live with those numbers at his price point.
The real appeal is the matchup, though, as the Rockies have bounced Lamet back and forth between the majors and minors this season. In 10 innings of big-league work, he has an ERA north of 12. It’s unclear whether he’ll be used as a true starter or an opener tonight, but the Rockies’ bullpen is bad enough that either outcome is good news for the Diamondbacks.
