The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Dylan Cease ($10,300) Chicago White Sox (-130) vs. Minnesota Twins
Cease leads the FantasyLabs projections on Wednesday while coming in a close second in THE BAT’s for median and ceiling. He’s matched up with the Twins in the game with the best Weather Rating on the slate for pitchers. He also has strong Vegas data, as a slight favorite with the Twins implied for under four runs.
Cease is off to a bit of a rough start in 2023, with a 4.15 ERA and leading indicators in a similar range. His strikeout and swinging strike rates are down a bit as well, though still strong. However, that’s a fairly small sample size relative to the past two seasons. In 2021 and 2022, he topped a 30% strikeout rate and had a 2.20 ERA last year.
That makes it likelier than not that his slow 2023 is an aberration, especially at just 27 years old. The Twins are an average matchup overall, with the 12th-best wRC+ against righties but a top-10 strikeout rate as well.
It’s a good spot for Cease to get the Ks going, so long as he doesn’t give up too many runs.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Logan Gilbert ($8,500) Seattle Mariners (-175) at Oakland As
Any and every righty is worth a look against the A’s right now, thanks to their 26.3% strikeout rate that’s second-worst (or best, depending on your perspective) in the majors. Gilbert especially so, though, thanks to his third-year leap that has seen his strikeout rate rise north of 30%.
His 4.23 ERA is mildly concerning, but he’s been well better than that in actuality. His xERA is just 2.81, and the worst of his ERA indicators is still in the low threes. That explains his moderate price point on Wednesday, as he’d be in the five-figure range if his production was more in line with his true skill this season.
Oakland is implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs today, thanks in part to the best Park Factor for pitchers on the slate. It’s also good pitching weather, so finding a reason to fade Gilbert is difficult today except, perhaps, his projected ownership, which easily leads the slate.
Still, he’s a must in cash games thanks to his salary and firmly in the GPP conversation for lineups that get contrarian elsewhere.
Gilbert is also showing up in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shohei Ohtani ($11,400) Los Angeles Angels (-138) at St. Louis Cardinals
At first glance, this is a classic “good pitching against good hitting” matchup. As a general rule, those tend to favor the good pitcher, keeping Ohtani in the discussion today.
Additionally, the Cardinals aren’t quite as tough a matchup as they may appear, at least against right-handed pitching. They rank 15th in wRC+ against righties, considerably worse than against southpaws (where they rank seventh). That gives this the impression of a tougher matchup than it really is, which should suppress ownership if not salary.
Of course, Ohtani’s numbers are the real selling point. I’d be inclined to call his 35% strikeout rate unsustainable — except he topped 33% last season in 28 starts. His 1.85 ERA is probably a bit lucky, but his 2.81 xERA is still outstanding.
Betting markets tell the real story here, though, with the Cardinals implied for just 3.6 runs, and the Angels slightly favored. He’s a bit too pricey for his likeliest range of outcomes, but his massive ceiling and moderate ownership make him firmly in the GPP conversation.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Tournament Model wisely avoided the first game of this series at Coors Field, which ended with just five total runs. This game has a total of 12, with the Rockies implied for six runs themselves.
They have a solid matchup with Eric Lauer ($8,900) of the Brewers, don’t let his salary fool you. He’s a pitch-to-contact pitcher with a high fly ball rate and just a 20.5% strikeout rate this season. That’s acceptable at home in Milwaukee but a recipe for disaster at Coors Field.
Given their struggles against lefties (worst wRC+ in the majors), I’m tempted to avoid going with a full Rockies stack. Even so, I’ll be prioritizing Bryant and Cron, both of whom are on the strong side of their platoon spits.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
William Contreras C ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
One of the reasons to avoid the Rockies’ full stack is because of Contreras, who costs just $300 more than Rockies catcher Elias Diaz on DraftKings. Contreras has destroyed left-handed pitching throughout his career, with a .314 batting average and .948 OPS.
Both of those are well higher than his numbers against righties, while Diaz is on the wrong side of his platoon splits today. Contreras is also on the road and projecting for an earlier spot in his team’s lineup. Both of those combined mean he should see at least one more at-bat than Diaz on average.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland As (JP Sears)
The Mariners’ budding superstar is a true boom-or-bust option. He has a potent combination of power and speed — with six steals and five homers already this season, putting him on a 30/30 pace for 2023. However, he’s inconsistent, with a .239 batting average and a high strikeout rate.
That means we should pick our spots with Rodriguez, and tonight’s game against Sears is a good one. Sears has a solid strikeout rate of 25%, but he’s been a bit lucky relative to his swinging strike rate. Rodriguez leads all outfields besides those playing at Coors in median projection in THE BAT today.
Esteury Ruiz ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Oakland As at Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
Ruiz has been one of the few bright spots on the A’s this year, thanks primarily to his speed. While he’s only hitting .255 on the season, he already has 11 stolen bases through 30 games. That’s elite, and one hit followed by a steal would be enough to pay off his relatively cheap salary.
He should also be fairly contrarian, thanks to the chalk forming around Gilbert. While we obviously want to avoid hitters against our pitchers, steals don’t directly harm pitcher scoring, so this one is a bit more feasible.
