The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a nine-game main slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($10,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) at Milwaukee Brewers
Unlike the last few days, Wednesday’s early slate is jam-packed full of aces. Five pitchers on the slate cost at least $9,800, so choosing between them (or finding a way to fit two of them) will be the key to the slate.
My favorite amongst them is Kershaw, who leads the FantasyLabs models for median projection. The no-doubt hall of famer is still going strong in his 16th season, with excellent numbers through eight starts. He has a 28.3% strikeout rate that, if anything, should be higher based on his 15.1% swinging strike rate — both numbers are slightly above his career average.
Kershaw has also excelled in run prevention, with a 2.53 ERA. He’s been slightly lucky in that department, but his xERA, SIERA, and xFIP are all in the low three range.
Most importantly, he has possibly the best matchup on the slate with the Brewers. They rank dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, with a brutal 30.7% strikeout rate.
A few pitchers on today’s slate have similar statistics as Kershaw — none have as good of a matchup.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jhony Brito ($5,700) New York Yankees (-250) vs. Oakland A’s
Similarly, there’s an abundance of lower-end pitchers that are firmly in play today. Some due to underlying metrics that suggest positive regression is incoming, while some are due to above-average matchups.
Brito is a bit of both, though the emphasis is certainly on the matchup. He opened the year strong, averaging nearly 20 DraftKings points across his first two starts, but has hit a rough patch since. While not great themselves, his SIERA and xFIP are both roughly a full run lower than his ERA. Additionally, he should have a strikeout rate a few percent higher than his current one based on his swinging strikes.
The matchup with the A’s is a strong one, though. While they rank just below average in wRC+, they have the highest strikeout rate against righties of any team in the majors. That should help Brito’s rate tick up towards his true skill today. He leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection and has excellent Vegas data relative to his salary.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,100) Detroit Tigers (+101) at Cleveland Guardians
After a tumultuous 2022 that saw him miss most of the season for family reasons, Rodriguez has been a pleasant surprise for the (also surprisingly) competitive Tigers. He has a sub-2.00 ERA while averaging more than six innings per contest.
While he’s not an elite strikeout arm, his 23.9% rate is acceptable, given his longevity and run prevention. The Guardians are a great matchup for more of the same from Rodriguez — they’re a bottom-five wRC+ team against lefties but don’t strike out a ton.
With his price tag climbing north of $9,000, we probably need at least seven innings and a win from Rodriguez to give him a shot at the optimal. The odds of that happening are better than his single-digit projected ownership, though, making him a strong GPP option.
Don’t forget to check out who our simulations like on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy for MLB today:
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
With an average salary of nearly $5,000 per player, it’s impossible to play the Astros and two of the stud pitchers on today’s slate. However, sacrificing one of those arms could be worth it, given the strength of their projections.
They’re one of just two teams implied for more than five runs on today’s slate and the only road team. They’re in Los Angeles to take on the Angels and Griffin Canning ($6,400), who brings a 5.31 ERA into the contest. Combined with how good the top of Houston’s lineup is, that could be a recipe for some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Houston’s 7-9 hitters are all $2,500 or less on DraftKings, so pivoting to a “wrap around” stack using the top and bottom of the order is also a viable option. That allows you to both save salary and build a considerably more unique lineup for GPPs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Riley Greene OF ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (Peyton Battenfield)
I’m all in on the Tigers today, who’ve made a major turnaround over the past few weeks and pulled within three games of .500. A big part of that is due to Greene, who has a 1.055 OPS in the month of May, with three steals and a home run through the first nine days of the month.
The Tigers are running more in general, with Greene having exactly the type of “good, not great” speed that the new rules benefit the most. He was the top prospect in the MLB in 2022 and may finally be living up to that hype. Detroit has a solid matchup with rookie Peyton “Love Is A” Battenfield today, so look for Greene to continue his hot streak.
Anthony Volpe SS ($4,500 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Oakland A’s (Kyle Muller)
I mentioned in the stacks breakdown that Houston is one of just two teams implied for at least five runs today — the Yankees are the other. They have a whopping six run implied total, with Volpe serving as the leadoff hitter in their lineup.
Volpe was the Yankees’ top prospect coming into the season, and he disappointed a bit while showing flashes of brilliance. He already has 11 steals despite hitting just .205, but his .277 BABIP is due for some regression his way. Oakland’s Muller has a 6.62 ERA coming into the game, so today might be the day Volpe really gets going.
Jazz Chisolm OF ($5,200 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (Merril Kelly
I’m going to keep recommending Chisholm until FanDuel changes their prices, as he continues to be criminally underpriced there. He paid it off in a big way yesterday, recording two steals en route to a 30.60-point performance on FanDuel.
He’ll always be a volatile option thanks to his horrible strikeout rate, but the combination of speed and power may be the best in the league. He’s priced for his median, not his ceiling, making him an excellent GPP option. While he’s in play on DraftKings as well — he’s the only $5,000+ outfielder with a Pts/Sal over 2.0 in THE BAT — he’s clearly a way better value on FanDuel.
