The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-146) vs. Baltimore Orioles
This is a tough slate for high-end pitching, as all of the top options have red — or at least yellow — flags tonight. Burnes is the least concerning option, though, as the biggest issue he’s facing is a moderately difficult matchup against the Orioles.
Baltimore ranks 11th in wRC+ as a team this season, so not a matchup we go out of our way to pick on, but not one to avoid either. For Burnes, that’s still a winnable matchup. Vegas thinks so, at least, giving the Orioles the lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.8 runs.
Burnes has taken a small step back this season, though, with his ERA below three in each of the past three seasons but up to 3.75 this year. A bigger issue from a DFS standpoint is his strikeout rate. After three straight years of 30% or better, it’s fallen all the way to 22.8%.
Burnes’ underlying metrics suggest that his step back this season isn’t just bad luck. That would be enough to keep me from clicking his name today if there were other strong options — but that’s not the case tonight. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for median and ceiling tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Randy Vasquez ($4,000) New York Yankees (-120) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s rare to see any pitchers priced at the minimum on DraftKings, with the exception usually being “openers” who are expected to last only an inning or two. That makes Vasquez an intriguing option on Wednesday, as he draws an easy matchup against the White Sox.
This will be just the second big league appearance for Vasquez, but he acquitted himself well in his debut. He scored 13.1 DraftKings points over 4.2 innings last month against the Padres — a much tougher matchup than he has tonight. Encouragingly, six of his 14 outs were strikeouts.
That’s probably an unsustainable punchout rate for the rookie, but it’s still a good sign. Besides, he doesn’t need anywhere near that level of projection to justify his salary tonight. He’s a must for cash games and deserves a long look in GPPs as well.
Especially if his relatively low ownership projections hold up.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Scherzer ($9,700) New York Mets (+106) at Atlanta Braves
Just when it seemed like time to panic on Scherzer, the 38-year-old responded with consecutive 30-point performances on DraftKings. They both came in difficult situations as well, one against a strong Phillies lineup and the other at Coors Field.
He draws another difficult matchup today with the Braves, who have a very strong 5.1-run implied total. However, the Braves have been slightly worse than the Padres against righties this season, and Scherzer dominated San Diego his last time out.
When Scherzer brings his A game, the matchup doesn’t matter much. The 17 strikeouts over his last two games (14 innings) suggest that his A game might be back. For cash games, it makes more sense to trust the betting markets and roster Burnes, but Scherzer is a very interesting GPP play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
For the second straight day, the Giants are massively underpriced for their game at Coors Field. Despite not managing to hit a home run yesterday, they still scored 10 runs against the Rockies in the first game of this series.
They’re in an excellent spot to do it again, with a slate-leading 6.7 run total. The only convincing argument to fade the Giants tonight is centered around ownership, and even that can be mitigated by using some hitters further down the batting order.
Don’t overthink this one.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Will Smith C ($5,500 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson)
Among catchers with at least 100 plate appearances this season, only two are hitting .300 or better. The Rockies Elias Diaz and Smith. Smith isn’t just a contact hitter, though. He also has eight home runs on the season and an excellent .912 OPS.
On a slate like today, where there’s plenty of value to be found — via Giants stacks and a minimum-priced pitcher — paying up for the top projected catcher makes a ton of sense. Especially considering how strong the outlook is for the Dodgers today. They have a 6.6 run total, nearly as good as the Giants — who play in Coors Field.
Dodgers mini-stacks are firmly in play here and can fit in well under the salary cap. Smith is my favorite of the bunch, though, as he leads all catchers in projections by a wide margin.
Elly De La Cruz SS ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Noah Syndergaard)
The Reds top prospect made his MLB debut yesterday, and things went pretty well:
Elly De La Cruz with a double for his first Major League hit 👏
Over 1.5 total bases (+110) ✅
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 7, 2023
While that was his only hit of the game, he walked twice and scored a run, giving him a solid score of 11 points on DraftKings. He’s set to bat cleanup in the Reds lineup again tonight, which is a strong indication of what the Reds think of his abilities.
If he’s as good as they think he is, the sub $3,000 price tags won’t last much longer. Take advantage of them now, especially in a winnable matchup against Noah Syndergaard and his 6.54 ERA.
Ketel Marte 2B ($4,900 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Washingon Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
It speaks to how many strong hitting options there are that we’ve made it this far without even mentioning the Diamondbacks — who take on their former ace Patrick Corbin. Corbin is a shell of the pitcher he was in Arizona, with an xERA over 5.00 in each of the last four seasons.
He’s a pitcher we love to pick on for DFS, and today is no exception. Marte might be the best option, with his excellent platoon splits against lefties. He’s hit southpaws for a .302 batting average over his career and .300 this season. Really though, this entry is more of a friendly reminder that Patrick Corbin is pitching, and we should roster hitters against him.
