The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,400) Philadelphia Phillies (-130) at Chicago Cubs
Nola is a fairly clear top option tonight, at least until we have more clarity on who is starting for the Padres. While Nola is having a bit of a down year with a 4.38 ERA, he’s actually been better than those numbers indicate. His xERA is a solid 3.51, and xFIP is 3.93.
The bigger concern with Nola is his strikeout rate. It’s dipped down to 24.3% this season after a few years in the 30% range. Unlike his ERA, there’s been a corresponding decline in his underlying numbers that suggest this change is here to stay. That limits his upside, but his floor is still rock solid.
That’s thanks to a solid matchup against the Cubs, who have struggled with right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 96 wRC+ — compared to 108 against lefties. Vegas makes them one of just a few teams with an implied total of under four today.
Nola leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling projection tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Dane Dunning ($6,100) Texas Rangers (-210) vs. Detroit Tigers
Yesterday, Dunning’s teammate Martin Perez put up a solid (salary-considered) score of 13.9 points on DraftKings against the Tigers. We’re going back to the well with Dunning tonight, who sets up in a very similar fashion.
Pere narrowly missed picking up a win bonus that would’ve turned his score from “solid” to “very good”, and Dunning has strong moneyline odds that should put him in a similar situation. The Tigers have slipped to 29th in the league against right-handed pitching and could easily fall to 30th in the very near future.
Like Perez, Dunning is a low-strikeout pitcher who won’t provide a ton of upside. He’s been far better at limiting runs, though, with an ERA of 2.76 on the season — or a still excellent 3.16 as a starter. Against the light-hitting Tigers, there is no reason to think he can’t maintain that number tonight.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Domingo German ($8,000) New York Yankees (-150) at Oakland A’s
I almost listed German as our value play for the day — he trails only Dunning in Pts/Sal projection among today’s arms. However, his low ownership projections and higher upside for his price make him a better GPP option.
German has struggled to prevent runs this season, with an ERA and leading indicators all around 5.00. However, he has a solid strikeout rate of 22.6%, which should be in the upper 20s based on his swinging strike rate of 13.6%. That gives him solid upside tonight against the A’s, who strike out against righties at the third-highest rate in the majors.
The matchup with Oakland should also help tremendously with his run-prevention issues. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs, the lowest total on the slate. Additionally, this game is in Oakland, which features the best Park Factor for pitchers tonight.
All of that comes with a reasonable salary and sub-20% ownership, making him a solid option for GPPs of all shapes and sizes.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Miami Marlins:
Despite a game at Coors Field today, the Marlins sneak in for the top spot in our stack based on the tournament model. That’s thanks to a big discount in both ownership and salary relative to the Dodgers and a still-strong five-run total tonight.
The return of star hitter Jazz Chisholm has something to do with it as well. After missing about six weeks, he returned last night with a three-hit game, adding three RBIs and two runs. The Marlins offense is a lot more potent when he’s healthy.
They also have a solid matchup against the Red Sox, who are using an opener and then likely making this a bullpen game. This game is in Boston, which is another boost: Miami gets a guaranteed ninth inning at the plate, and Boston has the best Park Factor outside of Coors Field tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mookie Betts OF/SS ($6,100 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
Obviously, we don’t want to ignore the Coors Field game entirely. Especially the Dodgers, who have an outstanding 7.6-run implied total tonight against the Rockies and lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,000). Bets is a logical — if not somewhat obvious — starting point, thanks to his multi-position eligibility.
He’s also been smoking the ball against left-handed pitchers, as evident in the “advanced” tab of our PlateIQ tool:
He leads the Dodgers in both flyball and line drive percentage against lefties while coming in a close second in hard-hit rate. Those are especially valuable when playing at Coors.
Maikel Garcia 3B/SS ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Kansas City has a respectable 4.6-run implied total tonight while coming in as one of the cheapest overall lineups on the slate. Garcia is set to lead off, and he’s been one of the few bright spots for the Royals this season. He has a solid .273 batting average and has stolen 11 bases through just 46 games.
His speed gives him a reasonable amount of upside today, with a solid floor thanks to his average and solid walk rate. He’s a slightly better value on DraftKings with a 58% Bargain rate, though he’s only eligible at third base there.
Brendan Donovan 1B/2B ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
Donovan and the Cardinals have a solid 4.5-run implied total, despite a matchup with the Astros Javier that is fairly difficult on paper. However, Javier has struggled against left-handed bats this season, with a .340 wOBA against compared to just 2.36 against righties.
That’s good news for the left-handed Donovan, who’s hitting .269 on the season with solid speed and power. He’s mostly a FanDuel consideration for me tonight, as his $2,600 salary is far too cheap for a leadoff hitter and works out to a 72% Bargain Rating.
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