The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Luis Castillo ($10,100) Seattle Mariners (-174) vs. New York Yankees
The 30-year-old Castillo is having the best season of his career, with a strikeout rate just under 30% and an outstanding 2.73 ERA. While his ERA should probably be a bit higher, he’s left some meat on the bone in terms of strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate of 15.6% means his “true” strikeout rate should be in the low 30s.
While the Yankees might seem like a difficult matchup at first blush, their offense has been below-average against righties in 2023. Most of that data comes from when Aaron Judge was healthy, so New York has been even worse when you remove him from the equation. That makes them one of the better matchups on the board today and one Castillo can certainly dominate.
Vegas has certainly taken notice, with the Yankees’ 3.4 run total the lowest mark on the slate by half a run. The Mariners are also the most heavily favored moneyline team, another strong signal. While Castillo will come with correspondingly high ownership, he’s a tough fade in cash games or smaller GPPs.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections by a decent margin in median and ceiling today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Garret Whitlock ($7,000) Boston Red Sox (+110) at Minnesota Twins
We were picking on the Twins yesterday with a Red Sox righty, and Kutter Crawford rewarded us by delivering considerable value at his meager salary. Let’s go back to that well tonight with Whitlock for much of the same reasons we played Crawford on Tuesday.
Namely, the Twins’ absurd strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. At 27%, it’s the worst in the league by a fairly wide margin. While they’re a roughly league-average offense in terms of run production, for DFS, we can accept allowing a few runs if they’re offset by strikeouts.
Whitlock is averaging a solid (relative to his salary) 14.6 DraftKings points per game this season. There’s a strong argument he should be averaging even more, though. His xFIP and SIERA are both a bit below his 4.38 ERA. More importantly, he’s striking out just 20.9% of his opponents despite a 12.8% swinging strike rate. In 2021, he had an identical swinging strike rate but a 27.2% strikeout rate.
As we discussed with Crawford yesterday, a matchup with the Twins is an excellent time for some positive strikeout regression to hit. He ranks second in the FantasyLabs Pts/Sal projections.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Whitlock’s ability to get outs:
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($11,100) Los Angeles Angels (-145) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Not much needs to be said about Ohtani’s abilities as a pitcher. He’s one of just three qualified starters with a 30% or higher strikeout rate and has a very strong 3.29 ERA on the season.
The problem with him for DFS today is two-fold. It’s a difficult matchup with the Dodgers, who are tied for fifth in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They also strike out at a below-average rate, which somewhat limits Ohtani’s upside for tournaments.
The other is his price tag. He’s a full $1,000 more expensive than Castillo, and with Castillo having a far better matchup, it is hard to justify fading him in favor of Ohtani. They have near-identical strikeout predictions, with the Vegas data favoring the Mariners’ starter.
On the other hand, Ohtani is projected for sub-25% ownership, a rarity on a smaller slate. That’s roughly half that of Castillo, meaning he only needs a 1/3 chance of outscoring Castillo to be the better play (discounting salary considerations).
That feels like a reasonably safe bet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the ownership gulf is even wider in smaller field contests. Ohtani is an excellent tournament option tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
When writing up the pitching options for today, I had mostly discounted the idea of playing Castillo and Ohtani together. After all, it’s pretty difficult to fill out the eight hitter spots in the lineup with $21,200 spent on your pitching staff.
That is, until I saw the price tag of this White Sox stack. They’re dirt cheap, coming in well below $4,000 per player on average, despite having a slate-leading 4.9-run implied total against Martin Perez ($5,900). Perez has a 4.54 ERA, with his ERA predictors even worse.
He’s also a lefty, which is a double-edged sword today. Chicago has hit lefties much better than righties this year as a team, with more than a 20-point boost to their wRC+. On the other hand, there’s a reasonable chance the ultra-cheap Benintendi either gets the day off or gets bumped down the lineup against a fellow lefty, which would raise the cost of this stack.
Still, even if we have to pay up a bit or roster Benintendi from a worse lineup spot, the White Sox are more than worth it today. I’d play them in all contest types.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,000 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland A’s (Paul Blackburn)
After a mediocre start to the season, Ramirez has turned things around in June. He’s hitting .314 this month, with five home runs through 16 games. He had just six homers through the first 52 contests, so the return of his power is a welcome sign for the Guardians and DFS players alike.
He still has a reasonable price tag despite his strong projections. The only players projected for a higher median score than Ramirez in THE BAT are priced in the $6,000 range. That makes it possible to afford Ramirez even if spending up at other positions, and he should be a fairly popular choice today.
Matt Thaiss C ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Michael Grove)
Thaiss serves as a reasonable pivot from Grandal at catcher. They have nearly identical median projections in THE BAT, but Thaiss saves you a bit of salary on both sites. Both are incredibly cheap on FanDuel, though that’s less valuable since catchers aren’t mandatory.
He’s nothing to get excited about, but his .269 batting average is solid for his price tag and position. He’s also projected for the No. 5 spot in the Angels lineup, one of the better lineup spots for any backstop.
Edouard Julien 2B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox (Garret Whitlock)
Julien’s stat line is symbolic of the Twins in general. He has a 33.9% strikeout rate this season but is still managing to hit a respectable .245 with reasonable power. He was a late call-up this season, but he’d be on pace for more than 20 home runs if playing a full schedule.
He’s also the projected leadoff hitter on a team with a solid 4.6-run implied total, making him a solid value considering his price tag.
