The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Start the week with an interesting six-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($11,500) New York Yankees (-225) at Detroit Tigers
Without many other stud options in the late slate, Gerrit Cole has by far the highest projection and ceiling. Of course, that comes with the highest price tag.
Cole lived up to that price tag in his last start, scoring 39.46 DraftKings points with 11 strikeouts in 7.2 innings against Tampa Bay on August 25. His previous three starts all resulted in negative Plus/Minus performances.
On the season, Cole is 11-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Detroit has one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate, and fantasy managers can trust Cole to work deep in games.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Denyi Reyes ($4,000) New York Mets (+130) vs. Texas Rangers
Rookie Denyi Reyes has made 17 starts this season, but only two have come at the big league level. The 26-year-old righty started the season with the Mets, moved back to the minors, then rejoined New York on August 12.
The model likes Reyes as a bargain play today, but that is largely due to his minimum price. In 15 minor league starts this season, Reyes is 1-2 with a 5.80 ERA.
PlateIQ shows a lot of strength in the Texas Rangers lineup. They have the seventh-highest ISO and highest wOBA hitters with a strong hit and home run projection. The Park Factor against both lefties and righties, however, leans in Reyes’ favor.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zach Eflin ($9,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-120) at Miami Marlins
Zach Eflin continues to put together the best season of his big-league career for the Rays. He is 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
The surprising American League wins leader at the end of August, Eflin has been winning for fantasy owners as well over the last month. He has four 20+ DraftKings point totals in his last five starts.
Miami has a low .147 team ISO and the park rating is squarely in Eflin’s corner for this all-Florida matchup. The Marlins have just two high strikeout rate hitters in their projected lineup today, which could limit Eflin’s ceiling potential.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves finish their three-game jaunt in Colorado today against Kyle Freeland and the Rockies after scoring 17 runs in the first two games. Freeland has struggled this season to a 5-13 record and 5.00 ERA.
Superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. had his best fantasy game of the season on Monday with 51 DraftKings points. He tallied a home run, double, five RBI, and two stolen bases to illustrate the variety of ways he can produce for fantasy managers.
Second in salary on the stack, Matt Olson has had an incredible under-the-radar season as he heads the National League with 43 home runs. He is batting .306/.431/.592 in August with seven long bombs.
Surrounding them are second baseman Ozzie Albies, third baseman Austin Riley, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna in today’s top stack. With the lowest salary, Ozuna is by far the hottest at the plate. He is batting .364 in August with six home runs in his last eight games.
You can also target a down day for Freeland with his under-strikeouts prop on Sleeper Fantasy. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Charlie Blackmon ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (Darius Vines)
The Colorado effect works both ways and the Rockies’ veteran Charlie Blackmon has taken full advantage in the last few weeks.
Blackmon is swatting .291/.377/.460 on the season but has taken off in August. This month, Blackmon is batting .400/.500/.620 with a 1.12 OPS.
The Rockies face 25-year-old Darius Vines, making his major league debut for the Braves. In 67 career minor league starts, Vines is 16-15 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Will Smith ($5,400 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
The projections like Will Smith as a pay-up candidate at the catching position today with a weak pitching matchup against Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks.
Pfaadt is 1-6 with a 5.91 ERA on the season in 13 starts. He has a 1.36 WHIP and allows a .341 wOBA.
Smith is batting .271/.366/.461 on the year with 17 home runs and 66 RBI. He has three double-digit DraftKings performances in his last six games. He provides some consistency at an otherwise difficult catching position for offense.
Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,300 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals (Angel Zerpa)
If you are looking for a hitter outside of the tantalizing Braves and Rockies game, Ke’Bryan Hayes is a good bet. He has a +5.36 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games.
Hayes has four 20+ DraftKings performances in his last seven games, with three home runs, seven RBI, and 12 hits in that span. Overall, he is batting .269/.310/.442 on the year with 11 home runs.
The Royals trot out lefty Angel Zerpa to the mound today. Zerpa is 1-2 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the season. This is a good spot for Hayes to continue raking.
