The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Sandy Alcantara ($9,900) Miami Marlins (+134) at Atlanta Braves
The 2022 Cy Young Award winner isn’t projecting nearly as well as he usually does. Part of that is due to a bit of a rocky start to 2022 that has seen his strikeout rate dip about 4%, but most of it is due to a difficult matchup with the Braves.
Atlanta is favored and implied for 4.5 runs, making Alcantara far too expensive relative to his Vegas Odds. However, the situation isn’t as dire as it might appear at first blush.
First, Alcantara’s swinging strike rate is actually up this season, and he “should” have a strikeout rate in the upper 20s. Secondly, Atlanta is a top-three overall offense by wRC+, but they’ve done the bulk of their damage against left-handed pitching. Against righties like Alcantara, they rank a pedestrian 15th.
That provides a rare opportunity to get Alcantara well below his usual ownership in a matchup that isn’t nearly as bad as it appears on paper.
He’s an excellent GPP option, though I prefer to go with cheaper arms for cash games.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Steven Matz ($6,000) St. Louis Cardinals (-110) at San Francisco Giants
Matz is running away with the Pts/Sal lead in the FantasyLabs player models, thanks to an excellent matchup against the Giants. San Francisco has been the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching this season, with a 63 wRC+ while striking out an absurd 31% of the time.
Matz has also been considerably better than his traditional stats suggest. His ERA is an ugly 6.55 on the season, but his xFIP is just 3.66. The worst of his ERA predictors (xERA) is still more than a run and a half lower than his actual ERA.
He’s also fairly adept at missing bats, with a 24.7% strikeout rate. He should be notching even more strikeouts based on his swinging strike rate of 13.1% as well. (On average, strikeout rate is a bit over double swinging strike rate.)
There’s no better matchup for positive regression to strike than this one, so those numbers should converge a bit tonight.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kodai Senga ($10,600) New York Mets (-210) vs. Washington Nationals
Senga has the best Vegas odds on the slate, with Washington having the lowest implied team total and the Mets nearly the best moneyline odds. This makes it slightly puzzling that his projections don’t live up to those numbers — Senga ranks fifth in THE BAT’s median projections.
True, Senga has struggled a bit since coming over to the major leagues. The 30-year-old rookie has a 4.29 ERA, with leading indicators in the same neighborhood. However, some growing pains are to be expected when switching leagues, and Senga has shown flashes of brilliance already with a 10.71 K/9 ratio.
Most importantly, he also has a dream matchup with the Nationals. Washington ranks 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with the bottom three teams all fairly evenly matched. That, coupled with his “pay up to be contrarian” status, makes him a strong GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels’ star-studded top of the lineup makes this a very expensive stack, but they could prove to be well worth it. Their implied total of 5.8 runs is more than a full run higher than the next best team.
With some cheaper pitching options projecting well, the chalk build likely includes the Angels and a budget pitcher or two. Finding a way to pair them with one of the premium pitching options should be a great way to be unique on Tuesday, though it requires finding value from some cheaper pitchers.
It’s a tremendous pitching matchup as well, with the Oakland calling up Triple-A pitcher Luis Medina ($5,000). Medina has a 3.86 ERA in the minors this season, which isn’t a great number for a call-up. He’s also averaging just three innings per start, meaning we should see a lot of the A’s 30th-ranked bullpen. Their ERA, xERA, and xFIP are all over six — well worse than any other unit.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Francisco Lindor SS ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore)
Lindor and the Mets have the next-best implied run total on the slate, following the Angels, making them an interesting GPP pivot. Lindor is probably the best option of the bunch, thanks to his excellent platoon splits against left-handed pitching.
In his career, he’s hitting .290 against lefties but .269 against righties, so the matchup with Washington’s Gore is a strong one.
Lindor is relatively expensive, but the Mets as a whole are considerably cheaper than the Angles.
Esteury Ruiz OF ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Oakland A’s at Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
The visiting A’s are also in play, with a reasonable 3.9-run implied total against the Angels and Sandoval. Oakland has been comically bad on offense this season, but a $2,800 leadoff hitter on a slate where salary is at a premium shouldn’t go overlooked.
Ruiz is hitting a solid .256 this season and has already added five stolen bases. He can also fit around some varieties of Angels stacks, especially if you replace the expensive Hunter Renfroe with one of their cheaper options at other positions.
Ruiz is a DraftKings-only choice today, with his FanDuel salary far too high for his likely range of outcomes.
Freddie Freeman 1B ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (Roansy Contreras)
Fading the ultra-chalky Shoehei Ohtani is scary today, but Freeman represents a possible path toward doing so. (Or Ohtani could play one of the OF spots on DraftKigns, requiring bumping a different Angels hitter.)
The Dodgers have the best implied total of any road team tonight, and Freeman is hitting .280 on the season with three home runs. He’s also the type of pull-happy power hitter that the shift ban should benefit, with a career jump of nearly 40 points in wOBA against non-shifted defenses.
Despite that, his BABIP this season is a tick lower than his career mark, a number that should improve shortly.
Additionally, his HR/FB ratio is a bit down as well, so he’s due for a touch of positive regression across the board.
