The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($10,800) New York Mets (-128) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s a difficult matchup for Scherzer today as the star-studded Dodgers lineup comes to town. However, the old adage that “good pitching beats good hitting” is very much applicable today, with Mad Max leading the FantasyLabs projections for all pitchers.
His production numbers are a bit down to start the year, with a 4.41 ERA and just a 21.5% strikeout rate. However, his underlying metrics are as strong as ever, with a 13.1% swinging strike rate that would normally correlate to a strikeout rate in the high 20% range.
Still, there’s some understandable concern that he’s lost a step in his age-38 season. On a slate with more top pitching options, that might make him an easy fade. That’s not the case today, though, with only two teams implied for less than four runs and Scherzer the only pitcher projected for over seven strikeouts.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Trevor Rogers ($8,500) Miami Marlins (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants
It’s still very early in the season, but San Francisco has been awful against left-handed pitching to start the season. Their team wRC+ of 54 is tied for the worst in baseball with the lowly Tigers. That’s a good sign for the left-handed Rogers, who’s also playing in the most pitcher-friendly park on the afternoon slate.
Rogers has been solid to start the year, with a 4.20 ERA that’s about a half-run higher than his xERA and SIERA mark. He’s almost missing a decent amount of bats, with a 23.9% strikeout rate. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, they’re more than good enough, given the quality of the matchup.
He leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal at the position today. He also leads in projected ownership, making him a better cash game option than GPP arm.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Justin Steele ($9,700) Chicago Cubs (-162) at Oakland A’s
Our projection systems are split on the ownership of Steele relative to Scherzer, with THE BAT having Steele as the more popular option, but Scherzer projected slightly higher in the FantasyLabs system. Either way, Steele isn’t exactly an under-the-radar pick today, but he’s still a good GPP choice.
He’s projected very close to Scherzer in both systems while saving more than $1,000 in salary on DraftKings. He also has a far better matchup with Oakland — who’s 3.5-run implied total is the lowest mark on the slate. Steele also brings solid upside thanks to his mid-20% strikeout rate, and he’s improved on that number each year of his young career.
Even with some regression to his unsustainable 1.42 ERA, it could be argued Steele is the best overall pitcher on the slate in 2023.
Add a solid matchup to that, and he’s a strong play in all contest types.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
I’ll be glad when the Pirates series in Colorado is over, as getting their games right is both a necessary and extremely difficult part of the DFS process. After a 14-run explosion on Monday, they had a solid but unspectacular five-run game yesterday. Still, the considerable ownership of most of their hitters has driven their prices up for the series finale.
While that makes them slightly less appealing, they still have a slate-leading 6.1-run implied total against the Rockies and Austin Gomber ($5,700). The Rockies lefty has a career ERA of 4.80, a relatively low strikeout rate, and doesn’t force a lot of ground balls. All bad signs for games at Coors.
Additionally, a few of Pittsburgh’s top hitters do their best work against southpaws. The switch-hitting Santana has fairly extreme platoon splits, with far better numbers when batting from the right side. McCutchen, Joe, and Hayes all have less extreme but still noticeable improvements against lefties as well.
The Pirates are a great stack today if you can find the salary to fit them in. That could be made easier by fading Reynolds — while he’s their best hitter, he’s the one Pirate on the wrong side of his platoon splits today, as well as the most expensive piece of the stack.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ($5,800 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Madison Bumgarner)
Bumgarner seems completely washed at this point, with an ERA in the high fours each of the past two seasons that’s ballooned up to 7.90 to start 2022. He’s unlikely to be quite that bad all season, but his xERA is somehow even higher, so it’s not like he’s been unlucky.
This explains the Cardinals’ 5.9-run implied total, better than every team outside the Pirates — even the Rockies. Goldschmidt is the top option for St. Louis, leading the team in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections. He has excellent career platoon splits against lefties with a 1.046 OPS, making him a nightmare matchup for Bumgarner.
Trea Turner SS ($6,100 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger)
The Phillies have a fairly modest 4.4-run implied total today, but they’re one of my favorite sneaky stacks. This game has the best Park Factor for hitters outside of Coors Field and reasonably solid weather for hitters as well. Additionally, Clevinger is due for some major regression.
He’s got great numbers so far, with a 2.20 ERA. However, his xERA is a whopping 5.96, and he hasn’t allowed a single home run despite a fly ball rate of 47.7%. On the flip side, Turner is yet to hit a home run, despite a 40.7% flyball rate.
That makes this an ideal situation, where both players are due for some considerable regression, with both pointing towards better times ahead for Turner.
Kris Bryant OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Johan Oviedo)
Bryant has been one of the lone bright spots for the Rockies this series, with a home run in each of the games so far. While this feels a bit point-chasey, he’s still the highest-projected Rockies hitter in both projection sets. Consider this more of an obligatory reminder that the Rockies are in a good spot today as well more than a specific endorsement of Bryant.
He’s also horribly underpriced on FanDuel, with a slate-leading 99% Bargain Rating. If going pivoting to the Rockies from the chalkier Pirates, consider focusing your action on FanDuel instead of DraftKings.
