The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 6-game evening slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Spencer Strider ($9,300) Atlanta Braves (-275) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Strider is the obvious choice today, between his excellent numbers, the solid matchup, and the Vegas Data. Since the start of 2022 (142 innings), he has had a 38% strikeout rate, with an ERA of 2.65. If anything, he should be even better going forward — all of his ERA predictors are even lower.
The Reds lineup has been below average to start the season, and they’re implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs today against Strider and the Braves. Atlanta is also the biggest moneyline favorite on the main slate.
While his ownership will be astronomical on a six-game slate, Strider is hard to pass up on today. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections on Wednesday.
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MLB DFS Value Picks
Dean Kremer ($5,500) Baltimore Orioles (-184) vs. Oakland A’s
Kremer is off to a rough start in 2023, allowing nine earned runs through eight innings of work across two starts. However, those starts were against the Yankees and Red Sox, so the matchups did him no favors. This time, he has a much better situation against the struggling A’s offense.
Oakland is averaging just over three runs per game so far, worse than only the Tigers and Royals on the season. That should get Kremer back closer to his 2022 numbers when he had a 3.23 ERA. His leading indicators were a bit worse than that but still had him south of 4.00 on the season.
Kremer isn’t a high strikeout guy, but he’s a solid pick for cash games. We don’t often get moneyline favorites at his price point, and Oakland is implied for a mediocre 4.0 runs on the day.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Greene ($6,900) Cincinnati Reds (+220) at Atlanta Braves
The above picture says it all about Greene, who throws harder than any pitcher in the majors right now. His fastball is averaging a speed of 99.9 mph in 2023, giving him massive strikeout upside. With a career strikeout rate of 31%, he trails only Strider on the main slate.
Greene has been a volatile DFS option, with a 4.51 ERA since making his debut at the start of 2022. That’s factored into his price point, though, and we rarely see pitchers projected for more than seven Ks less than $9,000 or so on DraftKings.
Atlanta is implied for over five runs today, making Greene a boom-or-bust option.Generally, I like to avoid opposing starting pitchers for GPPs, since you’re capping your win bonus potential at one. However, on a six-game slate with his strikeout potential, today could be worth making an exception.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
Baltimore’s 5.3-run implied total trails only the Blue Jays, but their top hitters come in considerably cheaper, with a savings of $5,500 when compared to Toronto’s one through five hitters. That makes them the better DFS option, especially if paying up for two of the pricier arms on the slate.
Baltimore is at home, meaning one of the better hitters parks in baseball is in play. They also have an attractive pitching matchup with Ken Waldichuk ($6,100), who has an ERA over six since the start of last season. That’s on a tiny sample size of 43 innings, but still not a great start to his career.
Waldicuk is also a lefty, with the Orioles having excellent early numbers against southpaws. Their team wRC+ of 154 is second in the majors, behind only the Angles. Again, it’s too small of a sample size to draw firm conclusions, but still a solid sign.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Josh H Smith 3B/OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals (Brad Keller)
Smith isn’t a great — or even good — hitter by any stretch, with a sub-.200 batting average through his first 81 games in the majors. Of course, he’s still getting accustomed to the big leagues and projects to be considerably better than that moving forward.
The real appeal is that he’s a multi-position player, batting second for a team implied for just under five runs, but costs near the minimum. He’s a DraftKings only play, thanks to his solid 77% Bargain Rating.
Bo Bichette SS ($5,700 DraftKings; $4,000 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Toronto is taking on the Tigers southpaw “ace” Eduardo Rodriguez ($5,800), who has a 4.68 SIERA since joining the Tigers in 2022. It’s a good spot for the Blue Jays, in general, tonight, as they’re implied for 5.5 runs against the Tigers. Their top hitters are all expensive, though, so picking one or two as a solo play may be the better option.
Bichette is my favorite of the group, thanks to his platoon splits against left-handed pitching. Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($5,800) has struggled (relatively) against lefties in his career, while George Springer ($5,400) is roughly neutral. Bichette, however, has an OPS more than 100 points higher against lefties.
That’s not a reason to fade the other Blue Jays hitters since many of their at-bats will be against the Tigers bullpen.
However, if picking one, it’s enough for me to go with Bichette.
Ryan Noda 1B ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Oakland A’s at Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
While Kremer is projecting as one of the top price-considered pitching options on the slate, the A’s are still implied for four runs today at Baltimore. Part of it is thanks to Baltimore’s hitter-friendly home stadium: lefties in this game have the best Park Factor score on the slate. Additionally, the wind is forecasted to be blowing out to right field through most of this one, another boost to lefty bats.
That all lines up nicely for Noda, a rookie lefty whose prospect report has him as a solid power hitter. He already has two home runs through 11 games this season and is in a good spot for another one. He’s also too cheap on DraftKings for a top-of-the-order bat for a team with a solid total, making him a good salary saver if fading Kremer.
Be sure to check out everyone our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations like today:
