The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shoehei Ohtani ($11,600) Los Angeles Angels (-140) vs. Houston Astros
Ohtani is clearly the most talented arm on Tuesday’s slate. He leads the pack in ERA, xERA, strikeout rate, and swinging strike rate based on the last two seasons. However, that doesn’t necessarily make him a must-play for DFS contests.
He has a moderately challenging matchup with the Astros, who’ve struggled this season offensively but are an above-average team against left-handed pitching. That’s not a huge deal in and of itself — elite pitching should beat “slightly above average” hitting. However, his massive price tag calls things into question.
He’s nearly $1,000 more expensive than the next priciest pitcher — his opponent Framber Valdez ($10,700) and more than $2,000 more expensive than any arm in a different game. Ohtani will need to outscore the field by a comfortable margin to justify that expense.
He’s more than capable of doing so, of course, and leads both THE BAT and FAntasyLabs median projections. If his ownership projections remain moderate, I’ll be playing him, but it makes for some tough lineup decisions at other spots.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Clarke Schmidt ($6,000) New York Yankees (-250) vs. Oakland A’s
The presence of Schmidt on today’s slate certainly makes getting to Ohtani easier. Despite a $6,000 price tag, Schmidt has the best Vegas data on the slate, leading the field in both moneyline and opponent implied total.
That’s primarily driven by the excellent matchup, as Oakland is hitting just .222 against righties with a strikeout rate over 25%. Schmidt has been beat up a bit this season with a 5.83 ERA, but his strikeout rate is also over 25%, so he could easily make up for a few runs allowed by picking up some Ks.
The other knock on Schmidt is that he profiles more as a long reliever than a true starter and is averaging just over four innings per start this season. While that’s not ideal, that’s the type of thing we can overlook on a $6,000 pitcher. He’s lasted at least five innings in two of his last three, so he has a reasonable shot at the win bonus.
Both projection sets are in agreement here, with Schmidt having the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate by a large amount.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Lucas Giolito ($8,600) Chicago White Sox (-147) at Kansas City Royals
We tried to pick on the Royals yesterday with Dylan Cease, a decision that looked good early but ultimately backfired, with Cease getting blown up in the sixth inning before exiting. Still, Kansas City is a bottom-three offense against right-handed pitching this season, and Giolito is underpriced and projected to be under-owned today.
Giolito has a rough 2022, with a 4.90 ERA following three seasons of mid-three ERAs. However, his underlying metrics didn’t change all that much (3.66 xFIP, 3.79 SIERA), so it’s reasonable to assume that was mostly an extended streak of bad luck. Especially considering his bounce back this season, where his ERA is 3.67.
He also has a reasonable 23.6% strikeout rate, not elite, but certainly enough considering his matchup and price tag. With ownership projecting in the high single digits, he’s a solid pivot from the more expensive arms that allows you to fit more elite bats in the lineup.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations also like Giolito today:
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
Speaking of the White Sox, their bats are also projecting fairly well tonight. They have a five run implied total on the road and are still extremely cheap for their first five hitters.
The matchup with Jordan Lyles ($6,200) of the Royals explains the bulk of it, as he brings a 6.69 ERA into the contest. His underlying stats are at a similar level, so it’s more a reflection of his (lack of) ability than any bad luck. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in five of his seven starts this season.
The price tag on the White Sox stack also allows you to pair them with Giolito — picking up some win bonus correlation — AND one of the elite arms on the slate, which could be the key to a big score tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Austin Slater OF ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Despite an uncharacteristically strong performance in his last outing, the Nationals’ Corbin is still at the top of the list of pitchers we want to target. He has a 5.17 ERA and 5.84 xERA through seven appearances, with both numbers in line with his results over the past two seasons.
That makes Slater a screaming value on DraftKings, considering his leadoff role for a team implied for 5.3 runs — nearly the most on the slate. He also has massive platoon splits, with his career OPS against lefties (like Corbin) more than 200 points higher than against righties.
All of the Giants are in play today, but on DraftKings, Slater is a must.
Emmanuel Rivera 1B/3B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)
Rivera is hitting an unsustainable .406 this season, propped up by a .420 BABIP. While that’s obviously not going to continue, even regressing his BABIP to his career average has him as a .300 hitter this season, making him too cheap on DraftKings today.
It’s not an especially difficult matchup against the Marlins Luzardo and Rivera hits lefties well historically. Arizona is implied for a solid 4.7 runs, so the No. 2 hitting Rivera is in a good place today. His multi-position eligibility on DraftKings is an added bonus.
Jazz Chisolm ($5,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
I’m going back to the well with Chisholm on FanDuel today, following a disappointing 1-4 performance on Monday. He has an even better pitching matchup against the Diamondbacks Pfaadt, who got rocked in his lone big-league start to date.
Pfaadt struck out just 13% of opposing hitters in his debut, which helps the free-swinging Chisholm. Ultimately though, it comes down to his price point on FanDuel — where he has a 99% Bargain Rating.
