The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zac Gallen ($10,700) Arizona Diamondbacks (-260) vs. Colorado Rockies
For the second straight season, Gallen has an ERA below 3.00 and a strikeout rate in the upper 20s. Both figures rank inside the top 20 of qualified starters in 2023, making him a true ace for the Diamondbacks this season. Of course, we’re paying ace prices on Gallen today, and his salary has risen from an opening day mark of $7,200 to its highest point of the season.
That doesn’t make him overpriced, though, thanks to an excellent matchup with the Rockies. Colorado is a bottom-third team against right-handed pitching by wRC+ (which is adjusted for park factors). They’re on the short list of teams to target anytime they’re away from Coors Field.
Vegas has Colorado implied for only 3.4 runs today and Arizona as massive -260 favorites. Both marks are second-best on the slate, making Gallen well worth his price relative to the other top options. With some other expensive pitchers firmly in play, he should come with reasonable ownership as well, making him a solid option in GPPs and cash games.
He leads all pitchers in THE BAT’s median projections while coming in second in the FantasyLabs set.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brayan Bello ($7,000) Boston Red Sox (-176) vs. Cincinnati Reds
I’m a believer in the Bello breakout. The former top prospect struggled early in the season as he worked his way back from injury but has been much better in recent outings. He’s topped at least 19.3 DraftKings points in three straight starts, despite tough matchups with the Angels, Mariners, and Braves.
He should have an easier time tonight against the Reds, who rank well below each of those teams in wRC+ against righties while striking out at a top-ten rate. That’s an encouraging sign for Bello, who has 18 strikeouts in as many innings over his last three.
While his salary has risen with his recent success, he’s proven to be worth it. He’s still too cheap on DraftKings, where his 86% Bargain Rating stands out.
He ranks second in the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal on Tuesday.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shane McClanahan ($11,400) Tampa Bay Rays (-200) at Chicago Cubs
On paper, McClanahan is a far worse play than Zac Gallen. He costs an additional $700 and has worse Vegas data across the board. Games aren’t played on paper, though, and McClanahan has the talent to dominate in any matchup.
While the Cubs are a more difficult lineup to face than the Rockies, they aren’t especially intimidating. They have a dead-average 100 wRC+ against righties and a top 10 strikeout rate. McClanahan comes in with an ERA below 2.00 and a near-30% strikeout rate — elite numbers that make him the clear favorite against the Cubs.
While it’s a big ask to find the salary to afford McClanahan today, that should make him a relatively contrarian option. He’s projected in the low double-digits in the FantasyLabs models, a rare opportunity for a pitcher of his caliber to fly under the radar.
Those projections also have McClanahan leading the slate in median, ceiling, and strikeout projections, giving him massive upside.
He’s my favorite tournament play on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox don’t generally show up as one of the top stacks on the board, but they’re making a rare appearance today. While there are other teams with higher implied totals, at five runs, they still have a solid number — especially when considering how cheap they are.
They’re taking on the Angels and southpaw Tyler Anderson ($5,700), which has a lot to do with the White Sox’s solid projections. Chicago has an above-average 104 wRC+ against lefties but are one of the worst hitting teams against right-handed pitching in the majors.
Anderson is also just plain bad. His 4.81 ERA is high, but all of his underlying metrics are even worse. He has a 4.99 xERA and an xFIP over six. That’s precisely the kind of matchup we want to target, especially with lineups that are attempting to fit two of the pricier pitchers today.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match — and look at who are sims like in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Johan Oviedo)
The Giants are in a good spot tonight, with a 4.7-run implied total against the Pirates and Oviedo. Oviedo has an ERA (and SIERA and xFIP…) in the upper fours, making him one of the more attackable pitching options on the slate today. Wade is the Giants’ leadoff man, making him a cheap option to get some exposure to the Giants lineup.
Wade isn’t the most exciting of hitting options, though he’s flashed a bit of power with seven home runs on the season. However, he has an excellent OBP of .410, driven by his 17.3% walk rate. You can’t score if you don’t get on base, so Wade has a good chance to pick up a few points via runs today.
Marcell Ozuna OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Oakland A’s (JP Sears)
Ozuna’s price point on FanDuel is about right today. He’s hitting just .224 on the season, though he’s improved his power with 11 home runs already. His BABIP is also about 80 points below his career average, so some positive regression should be coming to his batting average soon.
All of this makes him a tremendous value on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. It’s relatively rare to see hitters outright cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel, and it’s worth taking note when they do.
As a bonus, Ozuna and the Braves are facing lefty JP Sears tonight. Ozuna has been somewhat better against southpaws both this season and in his career.
Adam Frazier 2B ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians (Cal Quantrill)
Frazier is another hitter who’s cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel. He’s set to lead off for the Orioles, who are implied for five runs tonight at home against the Guardians. Anytime we can get a leadoff hitter on a team with a strong total at his price point, we should consider it.
Like Ozuna, Frazier has a bad batting average on the season but a BABIP well below his career marks. Regressing his BABIP to his career number raises his batting average above .280, and Frazier also provides a bit of speed and power with six home runs and six steals on the season.
He’s an excellent option today, especially if looking to spend up on arms.
