The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,300) Atlanta Braves (-200) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
DraftKings seems to be on a mission to price Spencer Strider high enough that he isn’t a locked-in pitching option. So far, they’ve been unsuccessful — he was owned at over 60% despite a $12,000 price tag in his last start. We’re expecting more of the same today, with THE BAT projecting him at nearly 50%.
This isn’t to say he’s not worth the price tag or the ownership. Strider is averaging 26.4 DraftKings points per game this season, with a 41.5% strikeout rate. I’ve called his strikeout rate “unsustainable” here in the past — but he’s managed to sustain it. His swinging strikeout rate supports that number, so perhaps he can keep it going this season.
He has a difficult matchup with the Dodgers tonight, who rank second in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. However, Vegas is firmly on Strider’s side. The Dodgers’ 3.4-run implied total is one of the slate’s lowest marks, and Atlanta is heavily favored.
Strider leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median and ceiling projections tonight and is an awesome play in all contest types — if you can afford him
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brayan Bello ($6,300) Boston Red Sox (-111) at Los Angeles Angels
Bello looked like a new man in his last two starts, averaging over 20 DraftKings points between the two contests after struggling to start the year. He was a highly touted prospect coming into the 2022 season but had a rough rookie outing with a 4.71 ERA — but he may finally be living up to his potential.
He has a tough matchup against the Angels tonight, but his last two strong starts came against equally challenging Mariners and Braves lineups. One benefit to the matchup is that his salary has remained depressed. If he manages another solid start tonight, it’s doubtful we’ll see him this cheap again in the foreseeable future.
This is another situation where value doesn’t mean “cash game play” as the matchup with the Angels is a bit too challenging. However, he’s an excellent GPP option, especially if paired with Strider or another expensive arm. His K prediction is higher than any other pitcher under $8,300, giving him excellent upside relative to his price point.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Gerrit Cole ($11,200) New York Yankees (-165) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Rarely does Cole come anywhere near flying under the radar, but that’s what having Spencer Strider on the slate does. Cole is projected for significantly lower ownership than Strider while also saving slightly more than $1,000 in salary on DraftKings.
That makes him an intriguing option tonight for tournaments, though in cash games, I’ll likely try to find the extra salary. Cole’s strikeout numbers are down a bit this year, but his 26.8% strikeout rate is still very strong. He also has just a 2.01 ERA, though his other indicators suggest that number is about a run too low.
Cole’s matchup is considerably better than Striders as well, with Baltimore ranking 13th in wRC+ against righties, compared to the Dodgers, who rank second.
Ultimately, it comes down to ownership in the Cole vs. Strider debate tonight. THE BAT is projecting at about a 10% discount on Cole, which isn’t quite enough for me to go that route. However, check back throughout the day. If the discrepancy grows larger, Cole could become the better play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Miami Marlins:
Miami disappointed last night in the series opener in Colorado, scoring just three runs despite an implied total above six. However, the models are suggesting we give them another shot today — and it’s hard to find fault in that logic.
At 6.2 runs, they again have the highest team total on the slate, with the added bonus of being the road team. They also have a better matchup (for them) against Rockies lefty Austin Gomber ($5,400). Miami has a top-ten wRC+ of 115 against lefties this season but checks in at just 86 against righties.
Coupled with the salary discount, we’re getting following the bad performance — and the Rockies’ bad bullpen — and all roads lead to Miami tonight. They’ll be chalky, but we can get unique elsewhere in the lineup.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Matt Vierling OF ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
Given the expensive pitching options, we’re trying to fit today, finding cheap hitters will be the key to the slate. Fortunately, there are plenty of solid options, including the Tigers’ Vierling. He’s the projected leadoff hitter in the Tigers’ lineup that’s implied for five runs tonight.
A leadoff hitter with a five-run total at his price tag is enough information in and of itself to make Vierling a play. However, it doesn’t stop there. Vierling has a solid speed/power combination, with four home runs and four steals through 40 games played this season.
He’s also taking on a southpaw pitcher, which has historically been great news. His career batting average is 40 points higher against lefties than righties, so everything is pointing his way tonight. Especially — if not exclusively — on DraftKings, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating.
J.P. Crawford SS ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A’s (Luis Medina)
Like Vierling, Crawford is a leadoff hitter on a team with an excellent implied total. Also like Vierling, he’s way too cheap for that role. Seattle’s 5.5-run total is the best on the slate outside of Coors Field, making Crawford a great way to get exposure to their offense at a reasonable price point.
Crawford is in play on both sites, but he’s a better value on FanDuel today. There he holds a 65% Bargain Rating, making the value case even stronger.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF ($6,100 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Gore)
Tatis should come in at considerably lower ownership than usual tonight, thanks to the game at Coors and the expensive pitching options making him hard to afford. However, he has the skills to be a slate-breaker tonight.
Tatis is hitting a solid .274 on the season, despite a BABIP nearly 60 points below his career mark. For a player with his speed, he’s almost certainly due some regression, and he “should” be hitting around .310 if his BABIP returned to the norm. His HR/FB ratio is also 10% below his career mark this season, though his hard hit and barrel rates have dipped as well. Still, we should expect a few more homers from Tatis moving forward — and he already has seven on the year.
The matchup with Gore also puts Tatis on the correct side of his platoon splits. He has a career OPS of 1.023 against southpaws.
