The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($11,500) New York Yankees (-164) vs. Cleveland Guardians
I’ve been impatiently waiting for regression to hit Cole this season. His 1.11 ERA should be unsustainable, especially when compared to his SIERA and xFIP marks in the mid-threes. That regression is yet to happen, though, as Cole is averaging nearly 30 DraftKings points per contest in 2023, with his worst games still in the high teens.
This also isn’t a matchup that should give anyone pause on Cole, with the Guardians coming into the day as the 25th-ranked offense against right-handed pitching. They’re implied for just 3.2 runs, by far the lowest Vegas total even on Tuesday’s packed slate.
Of course, a packed slate means there are plenty of other ways to spend salary, so an $11,500 pitcher is tough to fit. There’s a game at Coors Field, plus five other teams implied for at least five runs and a handful of other expensive pitchers who project well.
Cole would need to pace the field by a wide margin to help you in GPPs, which our projections don’t think is the likeliest outcome. Combined with his slate-leading ownership, he should probably be faded in GPPs — but that’s a very scary proposition.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Mason Miller ($5,700) Oakland A’s (+120) vs. Seattle Mariners
Don’t confuse “value picks” with “cash game options” today, as Miller is decidedly GPP-only. The rookie fireballer has a fastball that averages north of 99 miles per hour — but he’s far from a finished product.
Miller has a strikeout rate of over 30% through two big league starts but also has an ERA in the mid-sixes. While his ERA predictors are somewhat better than that, his 4.39 xERA is pretty far from elite. With that said, he’s faced the Angels and Cubs in his first two starts — two above-average offenses against righties.
Seattle is a much better opponent for him, as they rank 19th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They also strike out a ton — at 26.3%, they have the second-highest rate in the majors. That’s a crucial stat for Miller, as a big K number could make up for a few mistakes.
If his current single-digit ownership projection holds up, he’s one of my favorite GPP plays in a long time. Not because I’m confident he’ll have a good game, but because the payoff could be massive if he lives up to his stuff.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations are also high on Miller:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown ($9,600) Houston Astros (-180) vs. San Francisco Giants
Hunter Brown actually projects slightly better than Cole in the FantasyLabs projections, with Cole taking the lead in THE BAT. However, it’s close in both systems — yet Brown is nearly $2,000 cheaper and expected to be considerably less popular.
Of course, he’s far less of a sure thing than Cole. The 24-year-old has just seven big league starts under his belt. He’s been outstanding in them, though, with a 2.37 ERA and 27% strikeout rate since getting the call-up in 2022. His swinging strike rate and ERA predictors roughly support those numbers as well.
The matchup with the Giants also lends itself to a “boom or bust” game for Brown. They’re the only team who strikes out more against righties than Seattle — but they’re also tied for second in wRC+ against righties. At Brown’s price tag, he’ll need to both prevent runs and rack up the Ks to be a good play today.
Still, Vegas is on his side, with the Giants implied for just 3.6 runs today.
With ownership a bit less than Cole’s in both projection systems, he’s a very strong GPP pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
With a game at Coors Field, I fully expected to see a Brewers or Rockies stack as the top option on today’s slate. I’m pleasantly surprised to see the Twins, however. They’re in a strong spot in their own right as the road team in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field.
The weather is somewhat encouraging in the Windy City as well. It’s expected to be cold (upper 40s) but with the wind blowing out to the right at double-digit speeds. Of course, none of that matters if you can’t hit the ball — but the Twins are a top-10 offense in 2023.
They also have a great pitching matchup against the White Sox Michael Kopech ($6,300), who brings an ERA of 7.01 into the contest. Remarkably, his FIP and xERA are even worse — he’s been bad, not unlucky.
Finally, the Twins are coming at a discount in both salary and ownership compared to the two teams at Coors, making them the better GPP play.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willy Adames SS ($5,900 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
The Brewers have the highest implied total on the slate tonight, sitting at 6.3 runs as they travel to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. Adames leads the team (and game) in median and ceiling projections, but all of their hitters are clearly in play tonight.
Like the team as a whole, Adames is off to a disappointing start to 2023. However, his BABIP is roughly 50 points lower than his career average, and his HR/FB ratio is also at a career low. Both of those things are due to regress generally — and a game at Coors is the right time for them to start.
With home run and stolen base upside, Adames has the ability to put up massive scores, making him a valuable one-off or cornerstone piece of a Brewers stack.
Ryan Mountcastle 1B ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (Ryan Yarbrough)
Mountcastle already has six home runs through the first month of the season, putting him on a 30+ home run pace. His underlying metrics suggest it’s not just a fluke either. He has excellent hard-hit and barrel rates, while he’s been slightly unlucky in HR/FB ratio.
His Orioles are implied for over five runs as they take on the Royals today, with Yarbrough expecting to serve as an opener. The Royals have a bottom-five bullpen ERA on the season, making this an appealing matchup in what’s effectively a bullpen game.
Willson Contreras ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
Willson isn’t even going to be the most popular Contreras on today’s slate, with his brother William of the Brewers playing at Coors Field. I prefer Willson, though, thanks to his pitching matchup with the southpaw Patrick Sandoval.
Sandoval has an ERA in the low threes this season but has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball. His SIERA is north of five, with other leading indicators in the high fours. He’s also left-handed, putting Contreras firmly on the better side of his platoon splits. His career OPS is nearly 100 points higher against lefties.
The Cardinals, in general, could go overlooked here, but they’re one of baseball’s best offenses with an excellent pitching matchup.
Especially at a thin position like catcher, I’m willing to go against the grain and get some exposure.
