The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,000) Atlanta Braves (-152) at Texas Rangers
Strider costs a pretty penny today, but he could be well worth it based on his projections. He’s the clear leader in median and ceiling projections in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections — though he also projects for massive ownership.
You probably don’t need me to tell you how good Strider has been since his 2022 rookie season — but he’s been incredible. His ERA has been 2.67 or less in both this and last season, with an absolutely absurd 39% strikeout rate. Even more impressively, both of those numbers are supported by his underlying metrics.
It’s not the easiest matchup tonight against the Rangers — who rank 7th in wRC+ against righties — but Vegas is firmly on Strider’s side. Texas has the lowest implied run total on the slate tonight, and Atlants is the second-biggest favorite.
Strider will be massively chalky, but a very hard fade tonight in GPPs. We’ll get to a possible alternate option at lower ownership shortly, but Strider is clearly the top arm on this — or possibly any — slate.
Strider is also showing some edges in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations:
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brayan Bello ($5,700) Boston Red Sox (-125) vs. Seattle Mariners
I occasionally worry that “value pick” is interpreted as “cash game option” in this segment, so let me be clear: Bello is a better GPP play tonight. The Red Sox sophomore has a 5.01 ERA (and similar xERA) this season and a roughly 23% strikeout rate. Those aren’t great numbers, though his strikeout rate is due for a bit of positive regression based on his swinging strikes.
However, he’s taking on a Mariners team that hits righties at about a league-average rate while striking out at the third-highest rate. That creates a “boom or bust” scenario for Bello, who could post a big number if he’s able to record some Ks.
Bello (and this game generally) also hits one specific trend I’m a believer in — a friendly home plate umpire. Mike Estabrook is worth an additional +0.6 points in Plus/Minus on average, a small but not insignificant boost. Coupled with pitcher-friendly weather and a 99% Bargain Rating, many of the secondary metrics are pointing toward Bello today.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Gerrit Cole ($11,500) New York Yankees (-113) at Toronto Blue Jays
This slate likely comes down to the performance of Cole relative to Strider, as the two expensive arms project well above the rest of the field. Strider is considerably above Cole as well but is also expected to carry roughly thrice the ownership.
That means a one-in-four chance of Cole outscoring Strider makes him plus-EV, which are fairly reasonable odds. Cole has the slightly better matchup based on wRC+ against righties — though Toronto strikes out a bit less than Texas. This game also features the most pitcher-friendly umpire on the slate, while the Atlanta/Texas ump favors hitters a bit.
Besides, it’s not like Cole isn’t a great pitcher in his own right. He brings a sub-3.00 ERA and 27.4% strikeout rate into this one. While the strikeouts are down, that’s allowed him to pitch a bit deeper into games than Strider this season.
All things considered, Strider’s projections more than account for the additional $500 — for cash games. For GPPs, Cole is the better pick, thanks to his much lower ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
The lowly White Sox make a rare appearance as a top stack today, with a variety of factors working in their favor. First, there’s not a clear offense to love here — the best hitting teams have difficult matchups, with only one team implied for five or more runs, and even then, just barely.
Next is their price tag, which comes in well below $4,000 per hitter today. That’s a very low mark for the top five hitters in any lineup, but especially a lineup with the second-best implied total on the board.
That total is driven by their excellent pitching matchup today against the Guardians Peyton Battenfield ($6,000). The rookie righty has struggled in the big leagues with a 4.45 ERA through six starts. His underlying metrics have been even worse though, with a 5.39 xERA.
The biggest factor for the White Sox here is that their budget price tags make rostering both Cole and Strider within reach — though you’d probably have to sacrifice one of Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada to get there. Still, that’s a build very few people will have given the salary limitations.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
William Contreras C ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
William Contreras almost always deserves a mention when facing a lefty, thanks to his excellent platoon splits. The .260 career hitter is hitting .308 against southpaws across his four seasons, with a 200-point increase in his OPS as well.
At a thin position like catcher (at least on DraftKings), that’s enough to make him stand out. He jumps off the page even more today, thanks to the lefty in question: the Cardinals Liberatore. Liberatore started the season at AAA after posting a 5.97 ERA as a rookie last season.
On FanDuel, where we don’t have to play a catcher — since catcher/first basemen is one position — Contreras is less of a priority.
He’ll be in all of my DraftKings lineups tonight, though.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly)
I generally avoid left-handed hitters against lefty pitchers, but Alvarez is an exception to that rule. The Astros’ slugger has consistently had reverse platoon splits in his big-league career, meaning he’s done even better against same-side pitchers.
Additionally, it’s a relatively soft matchup against the Cubs’ Drew Smyly ($7,600). While Smyly has a 3.05 ERA this season, his SIERA and xFIP are both well above four. Those numbers are more inline with his career ERA in the low fours, so it’s probable that he’s been somewhat lucky this season, not made a late-career jump.
Nick Madrigal 2B/3B ($2,200 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros (J.P. France)
Is Nick Madrigal a productive hitter? Not really, with a sub-.250 batting average in each of the last two seasons. Does he make up for it with power or speed? Also, no, he has five steals and no home runs since the start of 2022. Is he a near-minimum-priced leadoff hitter on a slate where we might want two expensive pitchers? That he is.
Madrigal also has the added benefit of multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, allowing even more maneuverability in your lineups. For what it’s worth, he also hit well over .300 in his first two big league seasons before his average and BABIP fell off a cliff last season. Not exactly a regression candidate, but he’s better than his 2023 (and 2022) stats indicate.
Madrigal is in consideration only in lineups that try to fit both Strider and Cole today (and, by extension, only on DraftKings), but he’s projecting reasonably well for his salary overall.
