The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Cristian Javier ($9,600) Houston Astros (-168) vs. Chicago Cubs
Javier is projecting as the most popular pitcher on Tuesday’s slate. His median and ceiling projections are a close second to Justin Verlander, but at nearly $1,000 cheaper, he’s a much better value for the price.
Javier’s numbers are similar to Verlander’s, with a 3.47 ERA and 29.0% strikeout rate through eight starts. However, he has a considerably better matchup with the Cubs. Chicago is near the middle of the pack in both wRC+ and strikeout rate against righties — while most of the aces on the slate have somewhat tougher matchups.
Chicago is also tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate, reflecting the strength of the matchup for Javier. He’s a rock-solid option for both cash games and GPPs on Tuesday, though ideally, you’d pair him with a less chalky option in tournaments.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jordan Montgomery ($7,400) St. Louis Cardinals (-180) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Montgomery has been solid so far this season, with a 4.11 ERA but slightly better underlying metrics. His 20.6% strikeout rate is less than ideal but enough to give him some upside from time to time. That makes him a pitcher that we won’t blindly target but will consider in the right matchup.
Tuesday is certainly an example of the right matchup. Milwaukee ranks dead last in wRC+ against left handed pitching. Additionally, they have an absurd 31% strikeout rate against southpaws — nearly 4% higher than the next closest team. This considerably raises the chances of a high strikeout game for Montgomery.
At his $7,400 price tag, he’s fairly priced for a typical matchup. This one is anything but typical, however, making him an excellent value today.
He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs models,
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,500) New York Mets (-164) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Verlander missed the first month or so of the 2023 season due to injury, making his season debut in early May against the Tigers. The rust was evident in that start, as he allowed two runs and five hits through five innings, leading to a lackluster DFS score.
He rebounded in a big way his last time out, though, picking up the win against the Reds with seven innings of one-run ball. That’s a fairly good sign that his weaker first start was simply a matter of knocking the dust off and not a decline in skills from the 40-year-old.
He has a tough matchup with the first-place Rays, but good pitching tends to win out over good hitting. Vegas is cautiously on his side, with a 3.9-run implied total for Tampa Bay and the Mets as moderate favorites. Verlander leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling on Tuesday. His elevated price tag makes him a “pay up to be contrarian” choice, as his projected ownership is the lowest of the top arms on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Yesterday it was the Reds, and today it’s the Rockies popping in our models during their series at Coors Field. Both teams are implied for over six runs today, but the Rockies lead the field with a massive 6.7-run total. They’re also shockingly cheap relative to that total, coming in at just under $22,000 for the first five hitters.
They have a much easier pitching matchup today against the Reds Brandon Williamson ($5,700), a pitcher making his big-league debut despite a 6.62 ERA in the minor leagues. This is basically Cincinnati waving a white flag today as they try to get their overtaxed rotation back on schedule.
Williamson is also a lefty, meaning especially good things are in store for Bryant and Grichuk, both of whom smash left-handed pitching historically.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Lance Lynn)
The Guardians superstar is roughly on pace for a third consecutive 20/20 season while hitting .285. He has a rare combination of hitting for average AND providing upside via home runs and steals, making him a daily consideration for DFS contests.
Especially tonight, where he has a dream matchup against the White Sox Lance Lynn. The 36-year-old Lynn might be completely washed, with a 7.51 ERA through eight starts. His xERA is better — but still bad — 5.43. That raises the likelihood of a strong game from Ramirez and the Guardians, who are implied for 4.5 runs.
Ramirez is an even better value on FanDuel, where he leads all hitters in median projection and has a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Matt McClain SS ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (Chase Anderson)
Our projected lineup for the Reds tonight has McClain hitting second. With the Reds having a 6.4-run implied total, that makes him an absurd value at the minimum salary on both DFS platforms.
It’s just the second big-league start for McClain, who made his debut last night. He has a solid 1-4 night, with a walk and two runs added to the mix for an 11-point DraftKings score. He profiles as a speedster with solid power but below average contact hitting.
That makes him somewhat of a boom-or-bust option, but at his stone minimum price, even a zero day doesn’t kill your lineup. He’s a near must-play on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight.
Ty France 1B ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta)
This is more of a Mariners suggestion than a France-specific one, thanks to their excellent 5.7-run implied total tonight. On a slate without a game at Coors Field, Seattle would be the chalky stack — but they’re likely to go overlooked tonight.
Even if you aren’t stacking the Mariners, France is an excellent option that doesn’t break the bank from a salary perspective. He’s projected for the most points on the Mariners outside of Julio Rodriguez ($5,600) in the FantasyLabs DraftKings models.
