The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kevin Gausman ($11,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-140) vs. Houston Astros
Originally I considered skipping over Gausman for this article — despite his slate-leading projections in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models. He’s taking on the Astros, after all, which seems like a difficult matchup at first glance.
However, it’s not as bad as I initially assumed. Houston has an exactly average wRC+ of 100 against right-handed pitching, doing the bulk of their damage against lefties. That means we should expect Gausman’s season-long stats to mirror his performance today — since they were (by definition) accumulated against average hitting.
That would be a very good thing for DFS since the Blue Jays ace has been dominant this season. Both his sub-3.00 ERA and 32.9% strikeout rate are more or less supported by the underlying metrics. He’s averaging 24 DraftKings points per contest this season, a number he should approach again.
While he’s expected to lead the slate in ownership, there are a few starters all projecting in a similar range — keeping Gausman firmly in the GPP conversation as well.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Joe Musgrove ($7,800) San Diego Padres (-140) vs. Seattle Mariners
Musgrove missed the start of the season with an injury, making his 2023 debut in late April. In his seven starts, he’s faced five teams who rank inside the top 10 or wRC+ against righties (counting the Dodgers twice). In his other two starts against average competition, he’s averaging 22 DraftKings points.
That’s a pretty compelling case that he’s been far better than his numbers imply, thanks to an extremely difficult run of matchups to open the season. He gets a bit of a reprieve tonight against the Mariners, a slightly below-average team against righties. More importantly, they lead the league in strikeout rate.
That gives Musgrove a solid ceiling and should help him improve on his low 20% strikeout rate. On top of that, Seattle has just a 3.6-run Vegas total, the second-lowest mark on the slate. All of which points to a pitcher that should cost about $1,500 more on DraftKings today.
Musgrove leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal and has enough upside to be in play for cash games and GPPs.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Mitch Keller ($10,900) Pittsburgh Pirates (-250) vs. Oakland A’s
I was genuinely surprised to see Keller behind Gausman in both projections and projected ownership today. He has similar numbers on the season, with a 3.25 ERA and 30%+ strikeout rate. But Keller has a far better matchup against an A’s team that ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties.
That also explains why betting markets love Keller and the Pirates tonight. They have the best moneyline odds on the slate, while Oakland has the lowest implied total. Normally that would lead to Keller being the chalk at pitcher, especially considering he’s $100 cheaper than Gausman.
Since I’m a firm believer in the Mitch Keller 2023 breakout, I’ll be prioritizing him over Gausman in all contest types. Finding a way to fit both together is also an option. It’s difficult from a salary standpoint, but it would be a fairly contrarian way to build a roster tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
Whoever is in charge of the DraftKings pricing for today’s slate must have the day off because the Giants are way too cheap on Tuesday. They’re playing at Coors Field, where they have a 6.3-run implied total, the best mark on the slate.
We’ve seen recent series at Coors with bad or mediocre offenses, which is always a difficult decision in DFS. That’s very much not the case tonight, though, as the Giants are a top five team against right-handed pitching in wRC+. They even have a solid pitching matchup, with the Rockies expected to use Dinelson Lamet ($5,100) — with his 13.17 ERA on the season — as an opener before shifting to a bullpen game.
It’s hard to see a case for fading the Giants tonight. At worst, I’d switch to stacks utilizing the bottom of their lineup. Besides being more unique, in theory, those are the players least likely to be pulled from the game early if this one gets truly out of hand.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tucupita Marcano SS ($2,100 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Oakland A’s (James Kaprielian)
Furthering my theory about the salary-setter getting the day off is Marcano. He’s the projected leadoff hitter in the Pirates lineup. On a day where they’re implied for 5.4 runs. Despite that, he’s priced near the minimum on DraftKings and a full $300 cheaper than he is on FanDuel.
Marcano isn’t a superstar, but he’s a solid contact hitter with a .267 batting average and decent speed. He’s appeared in 42 games this season, picking up four steals along the way. While that’s not enough for a massive ceiling, a hit or two and a run is more than enough at his current salary — which likely won’t last long.
Look for him at 2B on FanDuel, though I wouldn’t suggest playing him there at his higher price.
Miguel Amaya C ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Despite the relatively cheap prices on the Giants stacks tonight, I still find myself trying to find some cheap options so I can fit the pitchers and/or star hitters I want. One potential option is Amaya, a rookie catcher for the Cubs who is off to a hot start.
Take his numbers with a grain of salt since he has just 25 plate appearances in the big leagues, but he’s hitting .316 with a home run already. Coupled with a solid matchup against the Angels’ Anderson — who has ERA, SIERA, and FIP numbers all over five — and Amaya is projecting fairly well.
At a generally thin position, Amaya is worth the risk for the salary relief he provides.
Corbin Carrol OF ($5,400 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
One of those star hitters I’m trying to make room for outside of my main stacks is Carrol. Carrol was a September call-up last year and came into the 2023 season as the number-two prospect in all of baseball. He’s lived up to the hype, with a .895 OPS through 57 games, and has added an additional 16 steals to his stat line.
The only outfielders projecting better than Carrol on DraftKings all cost at least an additional $500, making him the best Pts/Sal option among the high-end hitters.
