The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gerrit Cole ($10,900) New York Yankees (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners
There are four arms on the slate today with five-figure price tags, and choosing between them is a critical decision point on Tuesday’s slate. We probably can’t play more than one without making huge sacrifices elsewhere. On the other hand, ownership should be somewhat spread out among them, so we can prioritize the player we think scores the most points.
I like Cole’s chances of being that guy. While the four top pitchers on the slate all have reasonably similar numbers, the only one with an arguably better matchup is Nathan Eovaldi ($11,100). Eovaldi costs slightly more while providing much less strikeout upside than Cole.
Seattle is a league-average matchup, as they rank 15th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They rank third in strikeout rate, though, which is why Cole’s upside is so high. He’s having a bit of a down year in that department — he’s striking out less than 30% of his opponents for the first time since 2017 — but we know the ability is there.
We’re also getting some strong signals from Vegas, with the Mariners tied for the lowest implied total on the slate. Cole is borderline a lock today, leading both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling by a comfortable margin.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kutter Crawford ($5,400) Boston Red Sox (+120) at Minnesota Twins
We love to pick on the Twins in DFS due to their absurd strikeout rate. Minnesota leads the majors overall in strikeout rate, checking in at second against lefties and first against righties. Lefty James Paxton whiffed seven over 6.1 innings on Monday, and today, it’s Crawford’s turn.
The second-year starter has made significant improvements this season, even if they haven’t been fully apparent in the box scores. His ERA is down to 4.20, but his xERA (3.20) and FIP (3.84) numbers are even better. He’s also bumped his swinging strike rate up to 13%, which should translate to an even better strikeout rate than the 23.6% mark he’s currently sporting.
There’s no likelier matchup for that positive regression to kick in than against the Twins, with their propensity to strike out. While Crawford is expected to allow some runs — Minnesota has a 4.5-run total — he can easily make up for it with punchouts.
Especially at his extremely cheap salary, he doesn’t need a dominant performance to be a +EV DFS play. He’ll be a popular option to pair with one of the expensive arms but for good reason. He leads both projection sets in Pts/Sal projections.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($10,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-134) at Los Angeles Angels
If lineups where I’m not using Cole, Kershaw is the stud pitcher I’ll pivot to. He has the best strikeout rate this season of any of today’s starters, ranking seventh in the majors at 29.3%. On top of that, he has a sub-3.00 ERA; that’s extremely impressive for a player in his 16th season in the majors.
The issue for Kershaw is the matchup. The cross-town rival Angels rank seventh in the big leagues against left-handed pitchers in wRC+ while striking out at a below-average rate. The old adage is that “good pitching beats good hitting,” but we’d still prefer good pitching against bad hitting.
On the other hand, that’s leading to some uncommonly low ownership projections on Kershaw, making him an interesting option for larger field GPPS. We probably don’t need to look his way in tighter builds, but he’s a good pivot from the somewhat-chalky Cole on Tuesday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds were the optimal selection yesterday, and things look even better on Tuesday. This stack costs a bit more than Monday’s edition, largely thanks to the inclusion of top prospect Elly De La Cruz, who was left out of the suggested stack yesterday.
That’s because the Reds were facing a lefty, and the switch-hitting De La Cruz has been far better against righties in his young career. Their matchup vs. the Rockies isn’t at Coors Field, but Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is almost as good. In fact, no venue has been more friendly over the past three years when it comes to home runs.
Their 5.9-run implied total is the best on the slate, with only Cleveland (5.7) coming anywhere close. The Reds have hit righties better than Cleveland has hit lefties this season, even before we factor in the location of this game for Cincinnati.
Given their reasonable price tag and the fact that they leave two outfield spots available, they’re approaching “must-play” territory.
If you’re looking for a slightly different Reds’ construction, Spencer Steer grades out well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tommy Edman OF/SS ($4,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (Mackenzie Gore)
Edman is listed as an outfielder on DraftKings and a shortstop on FanDuel, and he’s set to hit first in the Cardinals lineup on Tuesday. St. Louis is probably my favorite team to stack outside of the Reds tonight, thanks to their matchup with Washington lefty Mackenzie Gore.
Gore isn’t a bad pitcher by any stretch, with a 3.74 ERA this season. That said, his 4.53 xERA suggests he’s been a bit lucky. However, the Cardinals are rife with players with excellent platoon splits against southpaws, Edman among them.
Edman is hitting .303 against lefties this season, compared to just .215 against right-handed pitching. He also has solid speed, with 12 steals this season and at least 30 each of the last two years, giving him excellent upside.
Nolan Jones OF/3B ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Ben Lively)
Jones is another player with differing positional designations between DraftKings and FanDuel, this time listed only as an outfielder on the former site while exclusively at third base on the latter. With that out of the way, he’s a promising option tonight, regardless of position.
The Rockies aren’t normally a team that garners attention away from Coors Field, but Cincinnati is one of the few ballparks that is an exception. They also have a solid pitching matchup with Lively. Jones has shown a ton of promise this year, just his second in the majors. Through 23 games, he has a .321 batting average, four home runs, and four steals.
His batting average is inflated thanks to an unsustainable .477 BABIP, though his speed and home ballpark mean a higher-than-usual BABIP is to be expected. He’s also on pace for the upper-20s in home runs and steals over an entire season, both strong marks.
Rockies full stacks are worth considering today, considering they’ll be less popular than the opposing Reds. Jones’ price tag and position fit nicely around Reds stacks, at least on DraftKings.
Steven Kwan OF ($3,800 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland A’s (Ken Waldichuk)
We mentioned Cleveland as the only team with an implied total near the Cardinals. Despite that, Kwan could still go overlooked today. He has a lefty-on-lefty matchup with Waldichuk of the A’s, which we generally try to avoid. However, we probably shouldn’t today.
Kwan has hit southpaws better than righties for his career and this season. While he’s hitting just .261 overall this season, his .293 BABIP is a bit low for a player with his speed profile. While his power is limited, he’s already added a dozen steals. He’s a tremendous large-field contest sleeper tonight.
