The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jacob deGrom ($9,900) Texas Rangers (-277) at Kansas City Royals
deGrom has struggled with staying healthy the past few seasons but has been lights-out when he’s on the field. In injury-shortened seasons the past two years, he’s posted SIERAs below 2.00 and strikeout rates above 40%. That feels pretty unsustainable — but he’s sustained it through his first two starts of 2023.
It’s hard to project that to continue indefinitely, but he has the underlying numbers to support it. His swinging strike rate is in the 20s — and has been the past few years, so we could almost argue he’s underperformed from a strikeout standpoint. He has a 5.59 ERA to start the season, but all of his ERA indicators are at 2.30 or below.
Those unlucky runs are probably why we’re still able to get deGrom in the four-figure range, which is unlikely to continue should his luck balance out. He’s taking on a poor Royals offense, who’s implied for just 3.1 runs today. You won’t sneak him past anyone from an ownership standpoint, but he might be too good to pass up regardless.
He leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection by a wide margin.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Alek Manoah ($7,700) Toronto Blue Jays (-290) vs. Detroit Tigers
Manoah’s 2023 season got off to a rough start, with five unearned runs and two homers allowed to the Cardinals in his debut. Things are looking up, though, following a solid start against the Royals in his last appearance. This time, he gets an even easier matchup against the lowly Tigers.
Detroit is averaging just three runs per game through the first nine games of the season, with a team strikeout rate of 26.9%, the second worst in the league. Manoah isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher — with a career rate of 24.4% — but he’s above-average at missing bats, and the Tigers should make him look good.
Like with deGrom, we’re getting a discount thanks to a bad start to the season from Manoah. It’s pretty easy to write that one off as a tough matchup though, so brighter days are ahead. Between the matchup and salary, this might be the best setup he gets all year.
He’s especially cheap on DraftKings, where he holds a 92% Bargain Rating. He leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal there while trailing only deGrom in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shohei Ohtani ($9,700) Los Angeles Angels (-300) vs. Washington Nationals
On any other slate, Ohtani vs. the Nationals would be the clear best pitching option. However, the presence of deGrom means Shohei might fly just under the radar. The Nationals’ 3.2-run implied total is virtually the same as the Royals against deGrom, with Ohtani having better moneyline odds.
He also has the next-best strikeout numbers on the slate, with a rate well over 30% since the start of 2022. While that’s a big step down from deGrom, the larger sample size from an innings standpoint makes Ohtani’s feel a bit more sustainable.
Ultimately though, this is about ownership. deGrom is the superior play in a vacuum, but Ohtani should come with a reasonable ownership discount. Given how close the projections are, that could make him the +EV option, depending on how close ownership ultimately is.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals will likely continue to appear in this spot for the duration of their series at Coors Field. They’re one of baseball’s best overall offenses, playing in the most hitter-friendly environment possible. Today stands out as an especially juicy matchup for the red birds, though.
They’re facing lefty Kyle Freeland ($7,200) of the Rockies. Freeland isn’t a terrible hitter by any stretch, but the Cardinals’ lineup is full of lefty mashers. Last year’s NL MVP Goldschmidt hit a ridiculous .411 against southpaws that season, and has a career .330 mark with a 1.048 OPS. Arenado and Carlson are both career .315+ hitters against lefties as well.
Keep an eye on Carlson, though, as he exited Monday’s game with a pinch in his neck. He’s currently listed as day-to-day. It might be a good thing from a DFS standpoint if he gets the day off, as a cheaper Cardinal would likely move up the lineup and make this stack easier to afford.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JD Martinez OF ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (Alex Wood)
The Dodgers slugger is another player who does his best work against lefties, and he’s matched up with Giant’s southpaw Alex Wood ($8,200). Martinez hit .319 last season against left-handed pitching, with considerably better power as well.
Consider him a large-field GPP play only on Tuesday, as his projections are considerably lower than all of the Coors Field outfielders on the slate. However, he’ll be flying way under the radar, which is always interesting considering his platoon splits and his cleanup spot in the Dodgers lineup.
Especially on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Cal Raleigh C ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs (Hayden Wesneski)
The Cardinals Contreras should be the chalk pick at catcher, but pivoting to Raleigh is a solid option for GPPs. The Mariners’ backstop hit 27 home runs in 119 games last season, and he’s in a pretty good situation on Tuesday.
The Cubs starter, Hayden Wesneski ($7,800) is a former sixth-round pick with under 40 innings of big-league experience to his name. He allowed three runs on two homers in 4.2 innings in his 2023 debut, so the Mariners’ solid lineup is worth considering top-to-bottom.
The wind at Wrigley is also forecasted to be blowing out today, which is always worth noting when games are in Chicago. Raleigh and the Mariners are a solid pivot off the Cardinals chalk, with a 5.1-run implied team total.
Daulton Varsho OF ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (Matt Manning)
Varsho no longer has catcher eligibility on either DraftKings or FanDuel, but he’s still an intriguing option in the right situation. Tonight certainly qualifies as such, with the Blue Jays facing off against the Tigers and Matt Manning ($6,400).
Manning is yet to live up to his top 10 overall draft capital for an extended period, with a career ERA of 4.73 and disappointing underlying metrics. While that could change, tonight against a tough Blue Jays lineup is an unlikely spot for new beginnings.
Varsho is a bit of an under-the-radar option for Toronto, but he’s been productive since coming over from Arizona. He’s hitting .306 with a .853 OPS this season, both career highs. While some of that is likely to regress, I’m inclined to believe he’s for real.
His BABIP in Arizona was far too low for a player with his speed (16 steals last season), and he was also one of the most heavily shifted-against hitters in the majors. Between the new rules limiting shifts and the changes designed to encourage base-stealing, he’s in line for a career year in terms of DFS production.
Be sure to check out everyone our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations like today:
