The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Logan Gilbert ($8,500) Seattle Mariners (-160) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
It’s a tough day for “stud” pitching options, with no team on the slate implied for less than 3.5 runs. The more recognizable names on the slate have tougher matchups as well, so there’s no clear dominant option.
Which is how we’ve arrived at Gilbert leading the slate in ownership projection. He’s a solid arm from a talent standpoint, with a 3.16 ERA dating back to the start of 2022. His xERA is an even better 2.25 this season, so the third-year player seems to be continuing to improve. Of course, that’s based on just a three-start sample size.
The Brwers aren’t a matchup we go out of our way to target, but they’re just a slightly above average team from a wRC+ standpoint so far this season. This game also ranks in the top tier for both Park Factor and Weather Rating, adding to the case for Gilbert.
He’s even added some ceiling this year, with a strikeout rate of nearly 30%. We’ll see if that holds up throughout the season, but it’s an encouraging sign.
He leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projections for pitchers on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Ken Waldichuk ($6,100) Oakland A’s (+150) vs. Chicago Cubs
The game between the Cubs and A’s leads the slate in both Park Factor and Weather Rating, making both arms appealing on Tuesday. While Waldichuk and the A’s are slight underdogs, his meager salary makes him the more appealing GPP option.
Waldichuk is off to a rough start this season, but his three starts have came against the Angels, Orioles, and Rays. Those are the top three offenses against lefties by wRC+ right now, so that was quite literally the worst possible start from a matchup perspective. While the Cubs have hit lefties well so far, they’re still a significant step down from his previous opponents.
He’s also just 25 and in his second big league season, so he should be continuing to get better as time goes on. His leading indicators are all considerably lower than his ERA, so some regression is due for Waldichuk as well. He leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal and is an excellent salary saver if trying to stack expensive bats.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Spencer Strider ($10,400) Atlanta Braves (-135) at San Diego Padres
Strider is pretty clearly the best pitcher on the slate, leading the board in SIERA, strikeout rate, and swinging strike rate. The problem is the matchup against a tough Padres team that has one of baseball’s best lineups on paper. They’ve performed at a roughly league-average level so far to start the season, but the talent suggests they’ll finish well above that.
Still, Strider has the stuff to win in any matchup. He had ridiculous numbers in his 2022 rookie season, finishing with a 2.67 ERA and a 38% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate has climbed over 40% this year, with an accompanying rise in swinging strikes. He averages 98 mph on his fastball, with improvements to his secondary stuff from a year ago.
All of this makes him a fairly volatile choice today, as the Padres have the talent to get to him, but his sky-high strikeout potential could mean (another) big DFS score.
He leads the FantasyLabs projections in ceiling and K projection on Tuesday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates put up two touchdowns on the Rockies last night, winning 14-3 for the first game of their series at Coors Field. They’re right back to it again on Tuesday, with a 6.7 implied run total that leads the slate.
The Pirates’ bats are still priced closer to their overall production, which goes out the window when playing in Colorado. Especially against Rockies starter Jose Urena ($5,500), who has a terrible profile for Coors. He’s a “pitch-to-contact” pitcher with a career strikeout rate of just 15.5%. That means a lot of balls in play, which could spell trouble.
Additionally, the Rockies bullpen is in rough shape after their shellacking last night, so the party doesn’t have to stop when Urena exits. Pittsburgh will be chalky today, but they’re an extremely scary fade.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ryan Jeffers C ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (Chris Sale)
The Twins are my favorite overlooked stack on the slate, as they travel to Boston to take on Chris Sale. To start, Boston is the best hitting environment for righties outside of Coors Field today. With a lefty pitcher on the mound, that’s a good combination for the Twins hitters.
More importantly, Chris Sale might be washed. Through three games this season, he’s allowed 15 earned runs and five homers. He’s had some bad luck in terms of HR/FB ratio and BABIP, but that tends to happen when hitters tee off on bad pitches.
Jeffers is also a lefty-masher, with a career wOBA of .350 against southpaws compared to .278 against righties. His teammates Byron Buxton ($5,000) and Carlos Correa ($4,600) are also on the better side of their platoon splits against Sale.
Those three could make up a mini-stack around Coors Field hitters or be part of a full Twins stack.
Cedric Mullins OF ($5,500 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
Baltimore’s five-run implied total is the best on the slate outside of Colorado, and they’re on the road against Washington. Those are all good signs for DFS. With Mullins set to lead off, he should be in line for an extra at-bat or two.
He’s a dual-threat DFS option, with eight stolen bases and two home runs on the season. Baltimore is taking full advantage of the new rules encouraging aggression on the base paths, with the second most steals on the season. That’s especially helpful for Mullins, who’s on pace to more than double his previous career high.
He’s likely to go overlooked thanks to his salary and all of the highly-projected outfielders playing at Coors Field. That makes him a strong GPP option, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating
Jurickson Profar OF ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Vince Velasquez)
Of course, I’d be remiss not to mention someone from the Rockies. They’re implied for 6.7 runs, pretty much equal to the opposing Pirates. Rockies hitters are a bit on the expensive side on DraftKings today, with the exception of Profar — $3,700 for a leadoff bat with that implied total is a steal.
The production hasn’t really been there for Profar to start the season, but he’s due for a bit of BABIP and HR/FB ratio regression — especially considering his home ballpark. He’s even more valuable on FanDuel, where he also holds shortstop eligibility.
