The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a nine-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,800) New York Mets (-255) vs. Detroit Tigers
Verlander is making his season and Mets debut this afternoon against his long-time team, the Tigers. It’s a tricky spot from a DFS perspective, as the ageless Verlander is easily the most talented pitcher on the slate, with a great matchup against the lowly Tigers.
However, he’s priced extremely high for a player whose best-case scenario is probably six innings, with five or so being the more likely scenario. It’s effectively Opening Day for him, and most pitchers are limited to around 80 pitches in their first start of the season — especially when dealing with injuries.
Still, he leads the FantasyLabs projections and is in a close second in THE BAT, making him a reasonably safe option. There are enough other pitchers in solid spots that I’ll probably pass on him in GPPs, but I certainly get the appeal. If he’s his usual dominant self, this might be the cheapest we see him for a while.
MLB DFS Value Picks
George Kirby ($8,600) Seattle Mariners (-255) at Oakland As
Logan Gilbert filled this section yesterday, with Kirby taking over at a nearly identical price point for Thursday’s option. Most of the logic remains the same: Oakland is a bad offense in a very pitcher-friendly park.
Gilbert put up a solid 18.5 DraftKings points yesterday, with Seattle’s offense not getting on the board until too late in the game for him to pick up a win bonus. With a bit of luck, Kirby should be in a similar position but hopefully able to pick up the win.
He’s been solid through the first year of his young career, with a 3.30 ERA supported by his indicators and a strikeout rate of 23.7%. He doesn’t pack massive strikeout upside, but he’s certainly viable when he has plus matchups like today.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Greyson Rodriguez ($8,300) Baltimore Orioles (-180) at Kansas City Royals
I’m a little surprised at the ownership projections on Rodriguez today. Both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections have him outside the top tier of pitchers, but he checks all the boxes we look for in a DFS pitcher.
Through five major league starts, the rookie has a 32.4% strikeout rate and a 4.07 ERA. However, his xFIP and FIP are both below three, meaning his defense has largely let him down early on. While his strikeout rate is due for some negative regression, he’s due for some luck in terms of run prevention.
He also has the best matchup on the slate, with the Royals ranking dead last in wRC+ against righties and striking out over 25% of the time. Outside of the limited sample size, there’s not much to steer me away from Rodriguez. The combination of matchup and price tag makes that a risk I’m willing to take.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The models still like the Rockies, who’ve scored 10 runs through the first two games of their series with the Brewers. They’re a tricky decision point today, though.
Colorado is an objectively lousy offense overall, especially against left-handed pitching. Their 70 wRC+ is 29th in the majors, with a 25.8% strikeout rate. However, the Rocky Mountain air and massive outfield dimensions tend to make bad offenses look good.
They’re matched up with Wade Miley ($7,200) of the Brewers, who has a 1.86 ERA this season but has been extremely lucky. His xERA is 4.29, with just a 5.0% HR/FB ratio. His career rate is in the 12% range, meaning he should’ve allowed more than double the home runs he has so far — and none of those games were at Coors.
All things considered, the Rockies aren’t a guaranteed smash today, but there’s a clear case for stacking them.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
We love picking on Patrick Corbin in this space, and there’s no reason to stop today. He has a 5.74 ERA this season and might be lucky it’s not even worse: His xERA this year is nearly 7.00.
That makes the Cubs an excellent lineup to fit into our rosters, with Suzuki perhaps my favorite individual player. He’s hit more than 40 points better against lefties in his big league career, with a 140-point jump in his OPS.
The matchup/platoon splits seem to be factored into his DraftKings price, but that’s not the case on FanDuel. He’s priced as if he’s facing an average righty rather than a terrible lefty. He has a 93% Bargain Rating, making him a borderline must-play.
Jesse Winker OF ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (Connor Seabold)
The Brewers 6.7-run implied total leads the slate by a wide margin, with the added benefit of being the visiting team in Coors. Like the Rockies, they’re tough to project here since they’re a bad offense overall but in a great matchup/ballpark.
If going with an individual hitter rather than a stack, Winker is the best value on DraftKings. He’s expected to hit second in the Brewers lineup and is the only top-six hitter priced under $4,000. He’s had a quiet 2023 so far, hitting .246 with no home runs.
However, he’s averaged 19 home runs over the past two seasons (while missing a fair amount of time in both years) and has similar hard-hit and fly ball rates this year. He’s due for some regression, with Coors Field likely to help.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Winker’s chances for at least two bases:
Jon Berti 2B/SS ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves (Dylan Dodd)
The Marlins are hosting Braves rookie Dyaln Dodd, who has a 7,71 ERA through his first two big league starts. Miami’s 4.4-run implied total says that Dodd will likely be better than those numbers suggest, but he’s still not a player to be feared by any means.
That makes Berti — who should lead off for Miami — a steal on DraftKings at his $3,000 price tag. His multi-position eligibility is an added bonus, and he’s one of the top hitters in Pts/Sal projection at any position today.
