The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Nathan Eovaldi ($10,500) Texas Rangers (-170) at Detroit Tigers
There are not many true aces on the main slate today, with Eovaldi as the lone arguable exception. He comes into Memorial Day with a 6-2 record through 10 starts, a 2.60 ERA, and a 25% strikeout rate. Those numbers are all due for a bit of negative regression, though, with leading indicators suggesting he’s been slightly worse.
However, that regression is unlikely to come today, thanks to an excellent matchup with the Tigers. Detroit has played much better baseball as of late, but they still rank 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Vegas isn’t convinced about the Tigers’ improvements, giving them the lowest implied total on the board today.
With Eovaldi as the clear leader in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets, he should also carry fairly heavy ownership today. Perhaps it’s too heavy to make Eovaldi a top GPP option, but he’s undoubtedly the best cash-game pitcher by a fairly wide margin.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Adam Wainwright ($6,100) St. Louis Cardinals (-210) vs. Kansas City Royals
Speaking of excellent matchups, it doesn’t get much better than the one Wainwright has today. He’s taking on the Royals, who are tied for last in the majors with a 75 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They’re also one of just five teams with a strikeout rate over 25% against righties.
The 41-year-old Wainwright hasn’t been great this season, to put it mildly. He has a 6.33 ERA and just a 10.2% strikeout rate, both awful numbers. However, he’s made just four starts and, in theory, should make some improvements as he gets into the swing of the season.
Betting markets are cautiously on his side, with Kansas City implied for only 4.2 runs. The Cardinals are also the heaviest moneyline favorites on the slate, though that has a lot to do with their potent offense. Still, it’s enough to make Wainwright the Pts/Sal leader in both projection sets, thanks to his budget price tag.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tyler Wells ($9,000) Baltimore Orioles (-150) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wells’ numbers stack up similarly to Eovaldi’s today, with a virtually identical 24.8% strikeout rate and a 3.47 ERA. Like Eovaldi, he’s probably not going to sustain numbers quite that strong, with his ERA indicators and strikeout predictors both a bit worse.
However, he has an even better matchup than Eovaldi, with the Guardians tied with the Royals for the worst offensive numbers against right-handed pitching in baseball. They don’t strike out as much, but they’re every bit as bad when scoring runs.
Thus, the decision between Wells and Eovalid comes down to projected strikeouts relative to ownership. We have Eovalidi projected for an additional two or so Ks but more than double the ownership. Given the Tigers’ superior offense — especially as of late — Wells could be the preferred GPP choice.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
At first glance, I assumed this game was at Coors: Arizona has a six-run implied total today against the Rockies. It’s in Arizona, though, with the high total a function of the excellent matchup against Rockies starter Karl Kauffman ($4,800).
Kauffman has just two MLB starts under his belt but has allowed more than innings pitched, with a 9.35 ERA. While it’s a small sample size, his xERA is a similarly-awful 8.70, so it’s not just a case of bad luck. Additionally, if and when Kauffman is chased from this one, Arizona’s situation only gets better: Colorado’s bullpen is one of the worst in the majors.
With the Diamondbacks checking in at a much lower price point than the Cardinals — who have the same implied total — Arizona is a far better stack on paper. However, keep an eye on ownership projections as pivoting to St. Louis could be a “pay up to be contrarian” option.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Lars Nootbar OF ($4,200 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
As mentioned above, the Red Birds also have an excellent six-run implied total Monday as they host the visiting Royals. Nootbar is hitting first in their lineup, making him an obvious choice as a one-off or building block for Cardinals stacks.
He’s hitting a career-best .268 this season, with four home runs and five steals added for good measure. They are not superstar numbers by any stretch, but they are still solid for his price tag. With his place in the order and the hitters behind him, he’s projecting very well on Monday.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,400 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
In the entry on Wainwright, we talked about how bad the veteran arm has been this season. The case for Wainwright is based on the Royals not having many hitters likely to give him a hard time, but Witt is a notable exception.
The sophomore shortstop is hitting just .232 on the season, but he has massive upside. He already has nine home runs and 15 steals, putting him on track for a 30/30 season. His BABIP is also just .263 and should be considerably higher given his excellent speed.
Witt leads the position in median projection in THE BAT today and is an excellent value on FanDuel with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Zach McKinstry 3B/OF ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
When fading the slate’s chalkiest pitcher, it’s a good idea to increase your leverage by rostering some hitters against him. After all, for Eovaldi not to end up in the winning lineup, we almost certainly need some production from Tigers batters.
McKinstry might be the best option today, with the utility man having a breakout season for the resurgent Tigers. He’s hitting .295 on the season, with 10 steals and four home runs through 44 games. He’s a bit pricey on DraftKings, but he’s worth considering in GPPs, thanks to the leverage he provides.
