The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,700) Chicago White Sox (-145) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Even for a four-game slate, it’s ugly for top arms on Thursday. No pitcher is projected for 20 points on DraftKings in either the FantasyLabs or THE BAT models, but Cease comes closest at around 18.
Cease has taken a big step back this season, with his ERA ballooning from 2.20 last year to 4.86. In his defense, his leading indicators are a bit better than that this year and were a bit worse than his ERA last season. Still, he’s just 27 years old coming off of two excellent seasons, so he has a track record of success.
He has the perfect matchup to get him back on track today against the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland has flip-flopped with Detroit all season for the worst offense against righties and currently holds a 78 wRC+. Unfortunately, they don’t strike out much, which limits Cease’s upside, but that’s acceptable on a smaller slate devoid of other high-ceiling options.
Cease is the clear leader in median and ceiling projections today while also having the highest ownership projection. It’s probably worth eating the chalk, though, as the combination of matchup and ability is hard to find.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Trevor Williams ($6,400) Washington Nationals (+128) vs. Miami Marlins
Williams is another pitcher we’re targeting primarily for the matchup. He doesn’t have the track record of Cease — though his last two seasons were considerably better than this one — but the $3,300 in savings is more than enough to account for that.
Miami has extreme platoon splits as a team, with a 111 wRC+ against lefties but just an 85 mark against right-handed pitchers like Williams. Their 23.6% strikeout rate is also on the high side, so we can comfortably project Williams a bit over his 16.5% mark on the season.
The Vegas Data isn’t ideal on Williams, with Miami implied for 4.5 runs. However, it’s safe to assume a larger than normal chunk of that falls on the Nationals bullpen, whose collective 4.44 ERA is seventh-worst in the majors. I don’t expect Williams to be lights out, but a solid performance relative to his salary is probable.
He leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Eury Perez ($7,700) Miami Marlins (-152) vs. Washington Nationals
The Marlins’ star prospect garnered a lot of attention in his debut but could slide slightly under the radar today. That makes this a perfect time to roster the flamethrowing 20-year-old, whose fastball averaged 98 mph in his big league debut last week.
It was a solid outing, striking out seven through 4.2 innings of two-run ball. We’d love to see him pitch deeper into games, but the drawback of a high strikeout rate is less efficient pitching. Still, we can anticipate a longer leash in his second start.
He also has an excellent matchup with the Nationals, one of four teams with a sub-80 wRC+ against righties on the season. Their lower strikeout rate may also be a blessing in disguise, allowing Perez to last a bit deeper into this one.
The Nationals’ 3.7-run implied total is the second lowest on the slate, so Vegas is clearly on the rookie’s side today. He’s coming in third in projected ownership, making him an excellent GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
Baltimore’s 5.1-run implied total leads the abbreviated slate on Thursday, making them an obvious top stack. While they cost a pretty penny, the absence of pitchers in the five-figure range makes them more than accessible with most builds.
They’re matched up with Angels lefty Tyler Anderson ($6,700), whose ERA and leading indicators are all over five this season. More importantly, Baltimore has raked left-handed pitching this season. They’ve been league-average against righties, but they own a top-five wRC+ against southpaws on the year.
Baltimore will surely be the chalk today, but there are not a ton of appealing pivots. If looking to get unique, consider fading Mullins — the most expensive Oriole — who has ugly platoon splits against southpaws. Replacing him with a later in the order Oriole would save considerably on salary and ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Luis Robert Jr. OF ($4,100 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
The White Sox season has been a disappointment thus far, but it’s not because of Robert. He’s hitting a solid .267 with 12 home runs through 43 games played in 2023. It’s added up to an average DraftKings score of 9.0 points per game, a solid number relative to his salary.
What’s even scarier is that Robert has been unlucky this season. He has excellent speed, but his BABIP is nearly 40 points off his career average. Based on his strikeout rate, he would be hitting .295 if his BABIP returned to his career average.
He’s also feasted on left-handed pitching in his young career, with a .351 average against southpaws like Cleveland’s Logan Allen ($8,600). His FanDuel price is appropriate today, but he’s far too cheap on DraftKings.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets (Tylor Megill)
There’s a shortage of solid second basemen on today’s slate, but Lowe stands out as one of the few quality options. He leads the position in median and ceiling in THE BAT projections while narrowly trailing the more expensive Luis Arraez in the FantasyLabs set.
Lowe is hitting just .208 this season but is a significant regression candidate thanks to a career-low BABIP. If anything, we’d expect his BABIP to be higher this season as a lefty against whom teams can no longer shift. The power has held up even when the average hasn’t, with eight home runs through 38 games played.
He’s a far better value on FanDuel, where he holds an 89% Bargain Rating, but he’s also firmly in play on DraftKings at a weak position.
