The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a three-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Nathan Eovaldi ($9,500) Texas Rangers (-240) at Oakland A’s
With only three games to choose from, we have to reach a bit on the definition of a “stud” pitcher. However, Eovaldi has the best projections, leading both THE BAT and FantasyLabs systems for median and ceiling.
Eovaldi is solid on his own merits, averaging 21.1 DraftKings points per start in 2023. His 3.22 ERA is supported by strong underlying stats, with all of his ERA indicators in a similar or better range. He’s not a massive strikeout arm, though, checking in at just under 25%.
Even the matchup is good but not great, as Oakland has turned things around against righties. They rank just below average in wRC+, though their strikeout rate is the second-highest in the league. That gives Eovaldi a higher-than-usual ceiling.
Regardless, he’s essentially a must-play today due to the lack of other strong options. His projected ownership is massive, but we can get contrarian elsewhere.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Luis Medina ($5,700) Oakland A’s (+194) vs. Texas Rangers
Medina will get the ball on the other side of that matchup, and he leads both projection sets in Pts/Sal at his near-minimum price. While I normally avoid stacking pitchers in the same game — they can’t both pick up a win bonus — that’s less of a concern on a three-game slate. It’s difficult for any combination of pitchers to end up with two wins when there are only three potential winning pitchers.
Medina’s only big league start went poorly, allowing seven earned runs through five innings of work. However, he had a tough matchup with the Angels and profiles as a slightly above-average big-league starter. He’ll turn it around at some point this season.
Usually, Medina would be too thin of a play for me, but we’re so limited on choices that he’s worth considering. As an added bonus, this game has the best Park Factor and Weather Rating for pitchers, making a double pitcher stack even more appealing.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tommy Henry ($5,500) Arizona Diamondbacks (+112) vs. San Francisco Giants
Henry has the lowest ownership projections on the slate, making him the defacto GPP pick on a slate where ownership should be remarkably condensed. He also has a sneakily good matchup with the Giants, who rank 25th in WRC+ against lefties with the second-highest strikeout rate.
The second-year player is off to a rough start this season, with a 5.17 ERA. However, one of his three starts was at Coors Field, and his numbers look much better if you factor that out. His xERA reflects this at just 3.61. He’s also been extremely unlucky in the strikeout department, with a 10.4% K rate that should be roughly twice as high based on his swinging strike rate.
Henry could have a breakout game today against a team like the Giants, who strike out a ton. With comparatively minuscule ownership and a cheap salary, he’s worth taking a chance on.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by Rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
Our models disagree with my read on Henry, with the Giants coming in as the top stack using an aggregate projection set. Of course, it’s easy to see why. San Francisco has the second-highest implied total while playing on the road.
Given their hitter’s salaries, that’s a compelling point for stacking San Francisco. It’s uncommon to get a team’s top-five hitters at under $4,000 on average, especially with solid Vegas Odds. If going this route, I might try to be more selective about taking Giants who hit lefties well: Haniger and Villar stand out in that department.
It’s also not totally crazy to roster a Giant or two alongside Henry, given the tiny slate at hand.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,100 DraftKings; $4,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Drew Rasmussen)
Aaron Judge is back from the IL, with three hits and two walks over the last two games. There’s never a bad time to play baseball’s best power hitter, but today is especially good.
The lack of expensive pitching and stacking options make salary easy to come by, so spending up for Judge (or the rest of the Yankees) is well within reach. He leads all hitters in median projection on FanDuel and DraftKings in both projection sets.
Randy Arozarena ($5,900 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (Domingo German)
Arozarena is the logical pivot from Judge today, though playing both is possible. He trails only Judge in median projections in THE BAT while coming in third in the FantasyLabs models.
Arozearena is hitting .319 on the season with nine home runs and three stolen bases. If anything, the steals should be even higher: he swiped 32 bags last year with more difficult rules. Arozarena and the Rays are favored against the Yankees tonight, and as the road team, he could easily see an extra at bat compared to Judge.
Esteury Ruiz OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Oakland A’s vs. Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
If you’re fading the massively chalky Eovaldi today, it makes sense to increase your leverage by playing some Oakland hitters. While there are not a ton of great options, Ruiz stands out, especially on DraftKings.
The speedster already has 17 steals this season and is hitting a reasonable .265. His elite speed makes him a threat to score anytime he gets on base, as well as turn routine hits into extra bases. He’s a bit thin with the tough pitching matchup, but getting contrarian is worth the risk in larger-field GPPs.
Ruiz also fares well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
