The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-105) vs. Atlanta Braves
As is often the case on these smaller slates, there’s not really an obvious answer at pitcher. There’s a handful of solid starters, but none with truly elite numbers, and they all have relatively difficult matchups. Nola is no exception to that rule but stands out with the best projections in THE BAT today.
The other issue with Nola is that he’s underperformed this year. He has a 4.66 ERA and a strikeout rate below 25%. Both of those numbers are the worst for him since 2016, which means either he’s on the decline or he’s due to turn those numbers around.
My money is on the latter. Nola is just 30, so it’s unlikely his skills have diminished already. Additionally, his xERA is a full run lower at 3.65, and his swinging strike rate and fastball velocity align with his numbers over the past few seasons.
Some positive regression is likely coming his way, though it’s hard to say today is the likeliest time since he has a challenging matchup with Atlanta. Still, we’re low on pitchers to feel good about today, so he’s worth a long look.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Logan Allen ($7,900) Cleveland Guardians (-184) vs. Oakland A’s
The Guardians rookie is essentially the inverse of Nola. He has a solid 3.95 ERA, but his underlying metrics are a bit worse. He comes into Thursday with an xERA of 4.55 and an xFIP of 4.17. Still not terrible, but certainly an indication that Allen has been somewhat lucky this season.
Another spot where he differs from Nola is the matchup. Allen is taking on an A’s team that, while better against left-handed pitching, still ranks 23rd in the majors by wRC+. That’s not quite bad enough where we’ll always target pitchers against them, but it’s undoubtedly a positive for Allen.
Another positive sign is what betting markets think of Allen and the Guardians today. Oakland has the lowest implied total on the slate, while the Guardians are the heaviest moneyline favorites. Considering Allen’s bargain price tag, that’s enough information to click his name on a short slate.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs in Plus/Minus projection and is a near must for cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Joe Ryan ($11,000) Minnesota Twins (-150) vs. Boston Red Sox
It’s certainly possible to find reasons not to play Ryan today. His $11,000 price tag is a bit much, especially compared to Nola at $1,000 cheaper. He also has a somewhat difficult matchup against the Red Sox, a team that ranks top-ten in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while striking out at an average rate.
On the other hand, he has the best numbers of any pitcher on the slate. He comes in with a 3.30 ERA and 27.1% strikeout rate, both excellent numbers. Even more impressive, both of those marks are due for some positive regression. His xERA is 2.44, and his 13.5% swinging strikeout rate implies a bit more strikeouts than he’s recorded so far.
I generally don’t want to bank on positive regression kicking in when there’s a tough matchup on deck. However, his underlying stats are strong enough that Ryan should be able to maintain his season stats in a moderately difficult matchup.
Pair that with his projected ownership — less than half that of Allen’s and well below Nola’s — and you have a recipe for an excellent GPP play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
If looking to fit Ryan in at pitcher, it makes a ton of sense to go with a Twins hitter stack as well. Besides the correlation between a solid offensive day and the four-point win bonus, the Twins’ cheap price tags make fitting an $11,000 pitcher much easier.
Minnesota is the top-rated stack in our tournament model today, as one of just two teams on the slate implied for at least five runs. Boston is planning a bullpen game today, with Justin Garza ($4,000) serving as an opener. While Garza isn’t an especially soft matchup, it’s generally good for the opposing team to face a procession of long relievers.
As noted in this space the past few days, Minnesota is a boom-or-bust offense with reasonable run production but an absurdly high strikeout rate. That makes their stack better suited for GPPs than cash games, especially when paired with Ryan.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Austin Slater OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (Blake Snell)
Slater is the top-rated outfielder on FanDuel in THE BAT’s tournament model today, thanks in large part to his 66% Bargain Rating there. He’s also projecting well on DraftKings, making him a solid choice on both sites.
He’s off to a red-hot start after missing the beginning of the season, with a .434 batting average through 23 games. That’s obviously unsustainable, but he’s still positioned well today. He’s hit lefties better throughout his career, with that trend continuing this season (via the PlateIQ tool):
With his leadoff spot in the Giants lineup and a winnable matchup against Snell (4.55 xERA in 2023), all signs are pointing Slater’s way.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,400 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland A’s (JP Sears)
Ramirez rewarded our faith in him yesterday with a three-hit game, including a triple. We’ll look his way again today, as he fits nicely around a cheap Twins stack that doesn’t fill the third base position.
That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where he has an excellent 81% Bargain Rating. That’s too cheap for a player of his caliber, and he ranks second in median projection for all hitters in the FantasyLabs FanDuel projections.
Keibert Ruiz C ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
As is often the case, finding solid options at the catcher position is difficult on Thursday. While that’s not an issue on FanDuel, where we don’t have to play one, getting any production from the spot could be a significant differentiator on DraftKings.
Fortunately, Ruiz is a solid value on DraftKings, given his 70% Bargain Rating. He’s also on the right side of his platoon splits against the left-handed Henry. Ruiz has hit southpaws almost 50 points better in 2023 and has consistently done better in that split throughout his career.
