The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($10,700) Los Angeles Angels (+115) at Texas Rangers
It’s rare to see an underdog as the highest projected pitcher on the slate, but that’s the case with Ohtani tonight. He’s a slight underdog against the Rangers, one of baseball’s top offenses, both overall and against right-handed pitching.
There’s a small handful of pitchers where I’m not really concerned with the matchup, though, and Ohtani is one of them. He’s striking out a career-high 33.3% of the hitters he’s facing this season, with an excellent 3.32 ERA. Ohtani is also averaging just under six innings pitched per start, a fairly strong number in today’s MLB.
He has the stuff to win in any matchup, including this one. His K Prediction is just over eight, nearly two strikeouts better than any other pitcher on the slate. That gives him a sky-high ceiling, making him an ideal GPP option.
That’s particularly true you factor in his lower-than-usual projected ownership. Both Sonny Gray ($9,300) and Nathan Eovaldi ($10,800) are also strong options (with better matchups) in a similar price range, which will draw much of the attention away from Ohtani.
While either of those two is probably a safer cash game option, neither can match Ohtani’s upside for tournaments. He leads the FantasyLabs Models for median and ceiling on Thursday.
MLB DFS Value Pick
AJ Smith-Shawver ($5,500) Atlanta Braves (-250) vs. Colorado Rockies
While we mentioned some pricey options with strong matchups above, there’s also a pair of cheap pitchers with an opportunity to thrive in ideal situations on Thursday. Smith-Shawver is one of them, who has the pleasure of taking on a Rockies team that ranks 24th in wRC+ against righties.
Smith-Shawver was the Braves’ top prospect coming into the season, and he’s made two MLB appearances since his call-up earlier this month. He faced Arizona in a relief role, striking out three in 2.1 innings without allowing a hit. His first start came against the Nationals, who managed to score two unearned runs in 5.1 innings.
Clearly, he won’t be able to maintain a 0.0 ERA much longer, but that’s still a good sign to start his career. He has just a 5.87 K/9 thus far, but preseason projections have him at close to a strikeout per inning.
Given his ultra-cheap price tag for the matchup, he’s an excellent choice in all contest types. My main interest is for cash games, though. It might take him some time to hit his stride in terms of strikeouts, and Colorado isn’t a particularly high-strikeout team. That gives Smith-Shawver a better floor than ceiling.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Matthew Boyd ($5,800) Detroit Tigers (+175) at Minnesota Twins
Boyd is on the other side of the risk-reward coin. He’s taking on a Twins team with an absurd 27.2% strikeout rate against lefties while checking in 27th in wRC+. Minnesota is still favored, but it’s not Boyd’s fault; the Tigers’ offense is even more pathetic than the Twins.
Boyd hasn’t been great this season, but he’s been somewhat better than his traditional stats suggest. His 5.55 ERA is roughly a run higher than most of his indicators, and his strikeout rate of 22.1% “should” be much higher based on his swinging strike rate. For context, his swinging strike rate is up from last season, and he had a 24.5% strikeout rate then.
A date with the free-swinging Twins is a good time for some of that positive strikeout variance to kick in, making Boyd a strong tournament option tonight. He’s a bit thin for cash games, but I like his upside more than Smith-Shawvers in tournaments.
Boyd also fares well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros are an interesting stack tonight, especially for tournaments. Their 4.7-run total is solid but not exceptional. It trails the Braves’ slate-leading mark of 6.0 by a wide margin, and they trail the Dodgers as well. However, both of those teams’ top hitters cost a lot more than the $21,600 this stack does. That makes them an ideal choice if trying to fit two of the three expensive pitchers on today’s slate.
Houston is on the right side of their platoon splits against Nationals lefty Mackenzie Gore ($7,800), which helps explain some of the discount. Hitters are priced (more or less) based on their average production, which is predominantly against right-handed pitching.
While I’m not sold on a full Astros stack tonight — especially if using one of Boyd or Smith-Shawver at pitcher — at least some of their hitters will appear in my lineups.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,600 DraftKings; $4,600) Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
While it’s a bit of a cop-out to include Acuna in this section — it’s not like anyone needs much encouragement to want to play him — he’s still worth mentioning today. The Braves’ six-run implied total leads the slate, with their superstar leadoff hitter the driving force behind that.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median projections by a wide margin on FanDuel and DraftKings and is worth finding the salary to pay up for. He’s on the right side of his platoon splits against the left-handed Freeland, with an absurd combination of power and speed. His 29 stolen bases are second-most in the league, putting him on pace for more than 60.
The only player even close to his projections tonight is Fernando Tatis Jr. I’ll be making a priority to fit both, which fortunately is feasible around the Astros stack, which is both cheap and leaves two open outfield spots.
Donovan Solano 1B ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers (Matthew Boyd)
Solano occasionally gets the nod at leadoff when facing a left-handed starter, as is the case tonight against Boyd. Be sure to keep an eye on our lineups page closer to lock, though, as there’s no guarantee he hits first or even makes it in the starting lineup.
If he does, though, he’s a massive value on DraftKings. He’s priced at the minimum despite hitting .283 this season with a solid .757 OPS. Crucially, his average jumps to .321 against lefties this year, with his OPS rising to .829.
That’s why the Twins make sure to get him in their lineup against lefties, and it’s why you should too.
Eloy Jiminez OF ($4,300 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (Michael Grove)
The White Sox have a 4.2-run implied total, the best of any road team on Thursday. That makes them worth watching tonight in an excellent matchup against the Dodgers’ rookie starter Michael Grove. Grove has an 8.28 ERA through 25 innings pitched this season.
Jiminez is a reasonable pivot from Acuna and Tatis if needing to save salary, with better projections than any other outfielder under $4,800 in THE BAT.
