The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 1:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kevin Gausman ($10,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-200) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Gausman has been far and away the best DFS among Thursday’s options. He’s averaging more than five additional DraftKings points per game than any of the other options, with a 3.03 ERA and strikeout rate above 30%. Both of those numbers are supported by the underlying stats, though I’d argue that his strikeout rate is a bit higher than he’ll sustain: his swinging strikes are down slightly from last season, while his strikeout rate is up.
In addition, he also has arguably the best matchup on the board, with the Brewers ranking 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
Vegas is sending strong signals that we should roster him as well. Milwaukee has the lowest implied total on the slate, while the Blue Jays are the heaviest favorites. Of course, the DFS field won’t overlook those numbers. Gausman is expected to carry massive ownership today.
Based on his ownership, there’s a case to be made for fading Gausman — especially in massive GPPs. However, he’s a must-play today in cash games and smaller tournaments. He leads both THE BAT and the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling.
Gausman also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS Value Pick
Joe Musgrove ($7,300) San Diego Padres (-120) at Miami Marlins
Musgrove leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal while checking in second in THE BAT on Thursday. He has the perfect combination of factors to be underpriced today: a winnable matchup and horrible luck so far this season.
Let’s start with the matchup. Miami has struggled offensively without star outfielder Jazz Chisholm, who’s been out since mid-May with turf toe. They weren’t exactly lighting the world on fire with him, but their wRC+ against righties has dipped to 24th in the league.
Musgrove has also been considerably better than his traditional stats show. His ERA in 2023 is 5.64, but his xERA is almost two runs lower, and all of his other ERA predictors are in the low fours. He’s never been a massive strikeout pitcher, but his 22.6% strikeout rate is his lowest since 2019.
Musgrove cost over $9,000 his first start this season, and a string of bad luck and tougher matchups has knocked nearly $2,000 off his salary. That makes him an excellent cash game play today, with some GPP appeal if you’re trying to avoid the Gausman chalk.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Scherzer ($8,700) New York Mets (-173) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I’m not entirely sure what to make or “Mad Max” in 2023. He’s been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball for more than a decade, with a strikeout rate of at least 27.9% every year since 2012 and just one season in that span with an ERA over 3.15.
However, he’s 38 years old and seems to be showing signs of a decline. His strikeout rate has slipped to 23.8%, with a 3.54 ERA. Those are still very solid numbers, but not what the Mets were hoping for when pairing him with Justin Verlander at the top of their rotation.
On the flip side, Scherzer has looked closer to his old self recently. His last three starts have produced at least 21 DraftKings points, and he topped 30 his last time out. Those were much easier matchups, though. He faced three bottom-ten offenses in the Guardians, Nationals, and Rockies, although his matchup vs. the Rockies was at Coors Field.
Vegas is similarly torn on Scherzer today, with the Mets as moderate favorites and Philadelphia implied for a middling four runs. If he’s truly regained his form, we’d expect both numbers to be much better for the Mets. I’m not willing to take that risk in cash games considering the tough matchup, but it’s worth sprinkling Scherzer in some GPP lineups. We might never see him this cheap again.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The models want us to go back to the well with the Blue Jays, who were yesterday’s top stack but only managed two runs against the Brewers. Still, it looks great on paper. They rank fourth in wRC+ as a team against righties and have an implied total of 5.1 runs.
They’re also relatively affordable since the traditional 1-5 stack isn’t an option. Cleanup hitter Brandon Belt and No. 3 hitter Vlad Guerrero Jr. are both first base exclusive. We could save a bit more salary — and increase the correlation — by rostering the number nine hitter instead of Varsho as well.
It’s probably worth sticking with the Blue Jays today, especially if rostering Gausman at one of the pitcher spots. Both options are chalky, but we can work around it with other spots in the lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Harold Castro 2B/SS/OF ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies)
“Hittin Harold” is one of the least exciting plays on the board, as he’s yet to record a single home run or steal on the season. However, he’s also probably the cheapest .271 hitter we’ll ever see in DFS, making him a solid floor play for cash games.
He and the Rockies have an especially appealing pitching matchup today, as Zach Davies of Arizona has a 5.68 ERA with leading indicators all above five. Castro is still unlikely to get to double-digit fantasy points, but he’s relatively safe for a near-minimum salary.
He’s got eligibility at three positions on FanDuel but isn’t listed as a shortstop on DraftKings.
Pavin Smith 1B/OF ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Chase Anderson)
I’m sticking with Smith, who I highlighted in yesterday’s column. He paid off in a big way, with two hits and three walks leading to a total DraftKings score of 20 points on Wednesday.
Most of the reasoning remains the same. He’s underpriced for the leadoff role in the Diamondbacks lineup, and Arizona has the best team total on the slate. While his DraftKings salary has jumped $200, he’s still a solid value there.
He’s a slightly better play on FanDuel, though. Despite his solid performance last night, they didn’t raise his salary, giving him one of the best per-dollar projections on the slate.
