The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($11,200) New York Yankees (-175) vs. Texas Rangers
To Cole or not to Cole will be the critical question on Thursday’s slate. He’s the clear leader in projections in both systems but also carries an absurd $11,200 price tag on DraftKings. That means you need to make significant concessions elsewhere to fit him in lineups.
I don’t need to tell you how good Cole is/has been, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. He’s allowed just three runs through five starts this season, with his usual 30% or so strikeout rate. His Vegas Data is also strong, though perhaps not quite as strong as we’d expect from a pitcher at this price tag.
Texas has been quietly good against right-handed pitching this season, with the second-best wRC+ as a team (they rank a mere 13th against lefties.) Given Cole’s salary, I’d expect to get both an elite pitcher AND an elite matchup, and we’re only getting one of those today.
The matchup, salary, and likely massive ownership make Cole a fade for me in GPPs, but for cash games, it’s probably best not to overthink it.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Joey Lucchesi ($6,400) New York Mets (-250) vs. Washington Nationals
Lucchesi missed the first few weeks of the season but made his 2023 debut with a bang. He threw seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Giants last week. However, since most DFS players were hesitant to use him in his debut, DraftKings has left his salary at an extremely affordable price.
Unless he gets completely blown up here, this is probably the cheapest we’ll see Lucchesi all season. He wasn’t an elite pitcher when healthy, but he had numbers that would roughly put him in the $8,000 salary range. That makes this the ideal buy-low spot, especially against a poor Nationals lineup.
Washington is implied for just 3.4 runs today, the same number as Texas against Cole. With the Mets checking in as considerably heavier moneyline favorites, Lucchesi is a bargain all around. He leads THE BAT projections in Pts/Sal while tying for second in the FantasyLabs models.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Lucchesi’s strikeout prospects:
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shane McClanahan ($10,000) Tampa Bay Rays (-154) at Chicago White Sox
The presence of McClanahan on the slate makes fading Cole feel a bit more viable, as the young lefty has similar numbers to Cole over the past two seasons and a considerably better matchup.
Dating back to the start of 2022, McClanahan has a better ERA than Cole by more than half a run while coming in just one percent lower in strikeout rate. He seems to be even better this season, though, with a swinging strike rate over 20% that should translate to even more strikeouts than his current 32% figure.
The White Sox have also been pretty bad against southpaws this season, with a bottom-10 rank in wRC+ and a top-10 rank in strikeouts. That compares favorably to Cole’s matchup with the Rangers. The biggest knock on McClanahan is his longevity, as he’s yet to top six innings in a game this season, while Cole has pitched into the seventh in three of five starts, including a complete game.
Still, given the matchup and the savings in salary and ownership, I strongly prefer McClanahan for GPPs — though rostering him with Cole could be a very unique build.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
With the smaller five-game slate at hand, there aren’t a ton of offenses to feel great about. The Twins are one of the better ones, thanks to a matchup with Zack Greinke ($5,800). Greinke is a shell of his former self, with a 4.61 ERA and most of his ERA predictors even higher. He also doesn’t miss bats, so the Twins should be able to get a lot of balls in play tonight.
Minnesota is implied for a solid 4.8 runs, trailing only the Mets for the top mark on the slate. They’ve been far better against right-handed pitching this season, making them a solid value at just over $4,000 per player.
They’re a great option if trying to fit two expensive pitchers tonight while coming in at moderate ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ryan McKenna OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (Joey Wentz)
McKenna is a screaming value today. He’s projected to lead off for the road team with the highest implied total but is priced at the minimum on DraftKings.
McKenna and the Orioles have a dream matchup with the Tigers Wentz, who brings an ERA of 7.56 into the contest. While his ERA predictors are somewhat better than that, they still aren’t good, with an average of somewhere in the mid-fives.
Orioles stacks are certainly in play here, but they’re somewhat expensive overall. McKenna is an excellent one-off play if their stars are out of reach from a salary standpoint.
Dj LeMahieu 3B ($3,700 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney)
LeMahieu is on my short list of players to consider whenever matched up against a lefty starter. He has a career .312 batting average against left-handed pitching, with the southpaw Heaney on the mound tonight. He’s also fairly cheap on both sites, considering his cleanup spot in one of the better offenses.
While the Yankees infielder is a similar value on both sites based on price, he’s far more intriguing on FanDuel today. That’s because he’s eligible at first, second, and third base, giving lineups with him a ton more flexibility than on DraftKings.
