The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($11,500) New York Yankees (-145) vs. San Diego Padres
With the only DraftKings salary above $10,000 on the slate, Gerrit Cole is the clear No. 1 stud pay-up option for fantasy players to weigh.
Cole remains unbeaten on the season at 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 11 starts, but those numbers do not tell the full story. He started the season red hot with a 4-0 April record and a minuscule 1.30 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. In May, Cole has hit some major road bumps in everything but the loss column. He has a 4.67 ERA in five May outings and has allowed five earned runs on two occasions. His strikeouts have also been down, with three double-digit strikeout performances before April 16 and just one game with at least eight strikeouts in his last five starts.
Cole continues to have the highest ceiling and overall projection on the slate. He is an interesting conundrum for fantasy players Sunday, as the clear highest salary with lackluster recent results.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jose Berrios ($7,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-115) at Minnesota Twins
After a down year in 2022, Jose Berrios has rebounded this season as a reliable starter for the Blue Jays. He is 4-4 with 4.22 ERA in 10 starts. He has the highest bargain rating on the slate Sunday against the Twins in Minnesota.
Berrios has three 20+ DraftKings-points performances in his last four starts. Last season, he could not keep the ball in the ballpark, as he allowed 29 home runs, which was the fourth-most in the league. This season, he has cut that number down and increased his strikeout rate to 23.1%, near league averages.
He showed some ceiling potential on April 25 with 34.75 DraftKings points in seven shutout innings against the White Sox where he struck out a season-high nine batters.
Don’t expect a clean sheet from Berrios, but at his price tag he poses a strong value for fantasy owners.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,800) Detroit Tigers (-112) vs. Chicago White Sox
At 30 years old, Eduardo Rodriguez is having a sneaky good start to the season despite the Tigers struggling to provide him run support.
Rodriguez is 4-4 with an impressive 2.19 ERA in 10 starts. He is in the top 10% of the league with a .243 wOBA and is even better at home with a 1.69 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He has produced a positive Plus/Minus rating in all but two starts this season and has four games with 20+ points.
Though his DraftKings salary continues to rise, Rodriguez is a solid option Sunday against a subpar White Sox lineup that ranks in the bottom-third of the Majors in most batting categories.
You can also take advantage of Rodriguez’s plus matchup with his strikeouts props on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees try to take the rubber match today against Yu Darvish and the Padres. The 36-year-old Darvish is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA in nine starts this season. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts. He has struggled this season as the lineup comes around for a second and third time, with fourth and fifth inning ERAs above 4.00 this season.
Aaron Judge needs to produce as the superstar in this stack, and he has come through so far in May, batting .323/.456/.774 with eight home runs. At the bottom end of the salary chart, DJ LeMahieu came through yesterday with a 2-3 outing and a long bomb. This stack has a lot of potential at home this afternoon.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Lars Nootbaar OF ($3,900 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians (Hunter Gaddis)
In his second full Major League season, Lars Nootbaar is beginning to find his groove at the plate for the Cardinals. After hitting .228 last season, he has improved to .275/.388/.403 on this campaign. He currently sits ninth in the National League in OBP largely due to his massive 15.7% walk rate.
Nootbaar has three multi-hit games out of his last five, and the Cardinals have an elevated implied total today in Cleveland.
The model likes Nootbaar in a plus matchup against Hunter Gaddis and the Guardians. In his short Major League career, Gaddis is 1-3 with a 8.18 ERA in 33 total innings over the last two seasons.
Cedric Mullins OF ($5,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers (Cody Bradford)
The model likes the Orioles lineup today against Cody Bradford, who is making his second career start for the Rangers. The 25-year-old lefty gave up six earned runs in five innings against the Braves on May 15 in his big-league debut. He has been lights out in the minors this season with a 0.99 ERA in 45.1 innings.
Cedric Mullins is capable of blow-up performances, with two 30+ DraftKings-points games in the last three weeks; he hit for the cycle on May 12 and added a 5-6 game on May 21 against the Blue Jays. On the year, Mullins is batting .265/.350/.487.
Both the model and Vegas have high hopes for the Orioles offense today. This could be another Mullins explosion at the plate for fantasy goodness.
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1B ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea)
The strategy is pretty clear. Pick hitters with potential who have good pitching matchups. LaMonte Wade Jr. is another model pick today that aligns with that strategy.
He faces journeyman right-hander Colin Rea on Sunday, who has a 1-3 record and 4.71 ERA in seven starts for the Brewers. Rea had his best outing of the season in his last start against the Astros, throwing 5.1 scoreless innings. In his other six starts, he has allowed four earned runs in all but two.
Wade Jr. is an on-base machine with a .265/.413/.444 line on the season. He is third in the National League in OBP with an incredible 34 walks on the year. Against righties, Wade Jr. has a .349 wOBA and .183 ISO.
He is a solid value play toward the lower end of the salary chart.
