The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kevin Gausman ($9,800) Toronto Blue Jays (-200) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Take a look at Kevin Gausman as the third-highest pitching salary on the slate. The 32-year-old right-hander may only have a 2-3 record, but his fantasy numbers have been a surprise for owners.
In nine starts, Gausman has a 3.27 ERA and seven positive Plus/Minus performances for a total +70.78 Plus/Minus on the season. In four of his last five starts, he has topped the nine-strikeout mark with an impressive 34.7 K% on the season.
His salary has dipped below $10,000 for the first time since April 6. Take advantage of that drop Sunday against a surprise Orioles lineup. The model loves Gausman, with the second-highest ceiling and projection on the slate, behind only Framber Valdez, who will cost you an extra $1,000.
Like Gausman’s fantasy prospects, his strikeout line on PrizePicks is also enticing. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Freddy Peralta ($8,500) Milwaukee Brewers (+117) at Tampa Bay Rays
At 4-3 with a 4.11 ERA, Freddy Peralta is lagging behind his season numbers from the last couple campaigns. In 2021 and 2022, Peralta finished in the top 10% of all pitchers in xwOBA, hard hit %, and xERA. So far in 2023, he has managed more average results
More inconsistency has led to feast-or-famine results for fantasy owners. In his eight starts this season, Peralta has scored fewer than nine DraftKings points three times and over 22 points five times. He is coming off a stinker on May 15 against the Cardinals, giving up six earned runs and five walks. In his previous three starts, Peralta threw six innings in each, allowing two runs or less and striking out 23 total batters.
The floor is low for Peralta, but he is due for another 20+ point performance Sunday against the Rays. He has the highest bargain rating on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Lance Lynn ($7,300) Chicago White Sox (-185) vs. Kansas City Royals
The overall stats don’t look pretty for Lance Lynn this season. He is 2-5 with a 6.66 ERA in nine starts. He has allowed his highest xwOBA (.346) and sweet spot % (40.7%) since at least 2015.
Diving deeper, Lynn has shown the upside to be a strong value play in tournament lineups. On his good days, he is putting up 20+ point DraftKings performances at a value salary tag. He has three such good outings in his last four starts.
On his bad days, he has the potential to blow up your lineup hopes. On May 10, he posted a -1.35 DraftKings score by allowing seven runs in five innings against this same Royals squad.
Lynn is a high-variance lottery ticket Sunday with a relatively high leverage rating in the model. Vegas likes his chances to bounce back, as the Royals have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros look to win their seventh game in a row with a juicy matchup against the bottom-dwelling Athletics. Houston has averaged over five runs per game in their last six games, and Vegas expects them to top that number again with the highest implied run total on the slate.
James Kaprielian takes the mound for Oakland with an 0-3 record and 10.17 ERA in four starts. He allows a rough .436 wOBA and has given up at least three runs in each of his starts. Fire up your Astros bats Sunday with a variety of stack configurations available.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
George Springer OF ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
The blended model continues to admire veteran George Springer. He is hitting a disappointing .234/.298/.349 on the year with a stronger .250/.324/.406 in May.
Springer showed his ceiling potential Saturday with 30 DraftKings points from a home run, three RBI, and a base swipe. Fantasy owners may need a long ball to return value. In May, Springer has three games with single home runs. In his other 13 games, he has failed to top 10 DraftKings points.
The model still sees value in Springer against Dean Kremer and the Orioles. Kremer is 5-1 with a 4.94 ERA. His .394 xwOBA and 6.85 xERA are both in the bottom 10% of the league.
Tim Anderson SS ($4,600 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Carlos Hernandez)
Both Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi are strong model picks Sunday against Carlos Hernandez and the Royals. The White Sox are strong Vegas favorites this afternoon.
Anderson hit a season-high $5,700 DraftKings salary on May 11 and has dropped precipitously since. He has just two RBI and one stolen base since returning to the lineup on May 2.
The model likes Anderson to get back on track with a strong matchup against Hernandez, who is making just his second start of the season. Hernandez is 0-1 with a 4.19 ERA in 22 total innings. Expect this to be a bullpen game for the Royals, with multiple relievers taking shifts on the mound. The White Sox have a lot of potential for fantasy production Sunday.
Marcus Semien 2B ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies (Connor Seabold)
Yes, this series is definitely taking place in Texas, not Colorado, but you wouldn’t know it from the Rangers’ production at the plate; Texas has scored 18 runs in the first two games. Marcus Semien contributed three hits, including two doubles, to their 11-5 win Saturday.
Semien may be having the best start of his career, batting .299/.376/.484. He is near league leaders with 55 hits, 41 runs, and 35 RBIs thus far through consistent production. On a current 10-game hit streak, Semien has six double-digit DraftKings point totals in that stretch.
The ceiling is not massive, but Semien is a solid fantasy option Sunday against Connor Seabold, who is 1-0 with a 5.14 ERA. Seabold does not allow many home runs, but he has yet to work into the sixth inning this season and allowed six runs in his last outing.
