The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Nathan Eovaldi ($11,000) Texas Rangers (-120) vs. Seattle Mariners
Nathan Eovaldi has impressed this season with a strong 7-2 record and 2.42 ERA. The 33-year-old right-hander is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate Sunday against the Mariners.
His 1.00 WHIP would be the best mark of his career for a full season, and his .271 xwOBA and 30.0 sweet spot % are his best since 2016.
With the success, his DraftKings salary has risen throughout the season from $9,100 to $11,000. In 11 starts, he has a combined +80.17 Plus/Minus on the year and four games with over 27 DraftKings points in his last six starts.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Sandy Alcantara ($9,000) Miami Marlins (-240) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Marlins are a huge favorite Sunday against the lowly Athletics after taking the first two games by a total score of 16-1. Since May 19, Oakland has only scored more than two runs in a game on one occasion.
Sandy Alcantara is not having a banner season. He is 2-5 with a 4.93 ERA in 11 starts. HIs .321 xwOBA and 40.5 hard hit % are both lower than his career averages. That said, the matchup cannot be better. Vegas agrees, as the Athletics have the lowest implied run total on the slate.
Despite his record, the projections have Alcantara with the highest ceiling, floor, and projected Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate. Expect high ownership Sunday, but he is certainly worth a look in lineups.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
J.P. France ($7,000) Houston Astros (-140) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Since entering the Astros rotation on May 6, J.P. France has treaded water in his first five Major League starts. Overall, he is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
At the low end of the pitching salaries on Sunday’s slate, France does not have a massive ceiling, but he could be a strong value play at the price tag. He has a combined +12.77 Plus/Minus rating this season and a positive Plus/Minus result in four of his five starts.
His strikeout numbers have gone up throughout the season, with eight punchouts in each of his last two outings. The Angels are in the bottom-third of MLB in strikeouts. The model likes France with a high bargain rate and a relatively low ownership expectation against Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies snapped a five-game losing streak Saturday in Washington and will try to leave town with a series victory against the Nationals’ right-hander Trevor Williams. Williams is 2-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 starts and has allowed 12 home runs on the season.
Bryce Harper leads the stack in salary, but he could use one or two of those long bombs Sunday. He has just three on the season, as his power numbers have slid mightily from his previous marks. Trea Turner is also off to a cold start, batting .237/.281/.373. The model likes these two perennial All-Stars to find their forms Sunday.
On the positive side, Nick Castellanos has surprised this season, batting .310/.352/.496 with seven home runs. He put up a massive 47-point DraftKings performance Friday with two home runs, a double, and five RBI.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kevin Newman 2B/3B ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
After a mediocre start to the season, Kevin Newman has turned things up in May and June. His .323/.417/.387 batting numbers in May were much stronger than his overall .279/.342/.375 season results.
Newman has one of the highest projected points/salary and bargain rates on the slate. He has three games with 10-plus DraftKings points in his last six games.
The model likes Newman against Brewers’ right hander Adrian Houser. Making his sixth start of the season, Houser is 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
Jonathan India 2B ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser)
Jonathan India is off to the best start of his young career. He is batting .276/.364/.425 with six home runs. He is third in the National League with 47 runs scored and 10th with 15 doubles.
The former Florida Gator has increased his production over the last week with a +38.04 total Plus/Minus in his last seven games, including three home runs. He has three stolen bases over the last two days for additional fantasy potential.
The model clearly likes the Cincinnati Reds offense Sunday against Houser. In addition, the Reds have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate.
Tim Anderson SS ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (Matthew Boyd)
The White Sox have a plus matchup Sunday against Matthew Boyd. The Tigers’ left-hander is 3-4 with a 5.96 ERA in 10 starts this season. Boyd has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts and struggles against right-handed hitters with an elevated 1.56 WHIP.
Tim Anderson has been a model favorite this season despite lackluster results at times. He is batting .268/.305/.315 on the year and has to make up for his lack of power with speed on the basepaths.
Boyd struggles against right-handed hitters, and Anderson has .323 wOBA against lefties on the mound. The matchup is juicy enough to trust Anderson in fantasy lineups on this slate.
