The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting 10-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Shane Bieber ($9,000) Cleveland Guardians (-205) vs. Kansas City Royals
With his highest ERA since his rookie season, Shane Bieber is not having a career year for the Guardians. Bieber is 5-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season. That said, he’s still a solid workhorse pitcher with a great matchup Sunday against the Royals to produce fantasy points.
PlateIQ shows that the Royals lineup Sunday only boasts one high ISO and two high wOBA batters against Bieber. The park factors are also low for both righties and lefties in the batter’s box.
His fantasy numbers have been hit or miss. In his last seven starts, Bieber has allowed at least four earned runs in four different games. He also has two scoreless starts of at least six innings in that span. The matchup indicates this could be one of the boom games for Bieber.
MLB DFS Value Picks
JP Sears ($6,500) Oakland Athletics (+138) at Boston Red Sox
The Athletics have been a dumpster fire for most of the season, but JP Sears comes into the slate with the highest bargain rating in the model.
HIs 1-6 record doesn’t emote much confidence, but the lack of run support has skewed that mark a bit. His overall numbers are a 4.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .306 wOBA. He also has one of the lowest walk rates of all Major League pitchers.
Sears has eight positive Plus/Minus games in his last 10 starts. His ceiling is not high, topping out at 24.75 DraftKings points in that span, but he can provide a solid outing for a cheap pitching option in lineups.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Gilbert ($8,600) Seattle Mariners (-130) at Houston Astros
Logan Gilbert is following up on a stellar sophomore season with another solid campaign. He is 6-5 with a 3.82 ERA in 17 starts for the Mariners.
He is coming off his best start of the season, a complete-game shutout against the Giants on July 4. That result was a nice bounce-back after a subpar June where Gilbert posted a 4.45 ERA and struck out just 20 hitters in 28.1 innings.
Gilbert has a career 24.0 K%, but those numbers have been down over the last month. If he can increase his strikeout numbers Sunday, he is a solid value play for fantasy owners. He has six 25+ DraftKings performances in his last 10 starts.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians look to sweep a four-game home series with the Royals on Sunday afternoon after scoring 19 runs in their first three games. Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough takes the hill for Kansas City in a spot start. He is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA in 10 appearances this season.
Jose Ramirez headlines the stack and ranks in the top five of American League hitters with 96 hits and an .874 OPS on the year. He has a .325 wOBA and .233 ISO against left-handed pitching.
The four additional Cleveland hitters all fall into the $3,900 to $4,200 salary range. Of the group, Steven Kwan is the highest rated in the model today. The 25-year-old has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. That hand-eye coordination has led to six multi-hit games in his last 10 outings.
Josh Naylor, Amed Rosario, and Andres Gimenez round out the stack. Naylor may have the highest upside with his .306/.345/.485 batting line with 11 home runs and 64 RBIs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Andrew Benintendi OF ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Steven Matz)
The highest-rated hitter on the slate may be a bit of a surprise. Andrew Benintendi does not offer much in the power department, but he has the potential to outperform his salary expectations in other ways.
The White Sox outfielder is batting .280/.347/.369 on the season with just one home run and 23 RBIs. He’s added nine stolen bases on the season. Benintendi had a great June, batting .333/.414/.448, and he has a +1.54 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The White Sox have a plus matchup against winless Steven Matz. The lefty is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA in 10 starts. Fantasy owners should look to find spots for the White Sox in lineups Sunday. Benintendi is an excellent option at the lower end of the salary chart.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (Brandon Bielak)
In his second big-league season, the exciting young star has had ups and downs this season for the Mariners. Overall, Julio Rodriguez is hitting .249/.310/.413 on the season with 13 home runs and 49 RBIs.
Rodriguez has found a groove over his last eight games with five multi-hit games in that span. Without a home run, he is hitting .351/.385/.459 so far in July.
The Mariners face Brandon Bielak in Houston on Sunday. Bielak is 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA in nine starts this season. He has an elevated 1.51 WHIP and .373 xwOBA. The model likes Rodriguez to continue his hot streak Sunday.
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Anthony Volpe SS ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks)
Another talented young star, the Yankees’ rookie shortstop has struggled to find his way at the plate in the Bronx. Anthony Volpe is batting .215/.287/.387 on the year with 12 home runs and 31 RBIs.
After batting .222 and .174 in April and May, Volpe has improved a bit in recent months. In his last 10 games, he has a +0.63 Plus/Minus and adds fantasy potential with 16 stolen bases and 37 runs scored on the year.
The Yankees face veteran righty Kyle Hendricks on Sunday in Yankee Stadium. Hendricks is 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA in eight starts. Vegas likes the Yankees to put up some runs Sunday afternoon, and Volpe will likely play a role.
